A governing coalition is forming to replace the Conservatives, who have lost the confidence of the majority of Canadian MPs. But the key question of who should lead that coalition remains. Given they have the largest caucus, it’s clear that a Liberal will lead the coalition. However, since Liberal leader Stephane Dion just lost an election and has decided to step down in May, he may not be the best choice. Nor would Deputy Leader Michael Ignatieff, the perceived front-runner for Liberal leader and who has the support of the lion’s share of Liberal MPs. The choice of Ignatieff would be seen as a power grab by rival leadership contenders such as Bob Rae and Dominic Leblanc. The coalition would start off divided if Ignatieff took over now. A neutral third party within the Liberal Party that can also win the confidence of the NDP and Bloc would be the best choice.

Why not John McCallum? The coalition’s legitimacy and survival depends on gaining the confidence of Canadians to deal with the economic crisis. An economic stimulus package is priority #1. John McCallum has the gravitas and economic bonafides to present the competence and seriousness of purpose required at this time. He is an economist, being formerly the Chief Economist for the Royal Bank of Canada and economics professor at McGill, U Manitoba and Simon Fraser. He represents Markham in the House but is from Montreal. So he’s lived in Quebec, Ontario, the Prairies and B.C., so likely has a reasonable understanding of the geographic diversity of the country, and speaks french. And he’s been a senior cabinet minister in government, as well as chair of the Expenditure Review Committee (responsible for cutting wasteful spending).

So why not John McCallum as interim Coalition leader?

Update: It appears that Dion as potential coalition leader is not a done deal. The Toronto Star is reporting that he is likely to step down before Christmas. John McCallum and Ralph Goodale are mentioned as possible interim leaders.

DemocraticSPACE annonce le site web pour la 39e élection générale du Québec.
http://democraticSPACE.com/quebec2008

Not too many surprises in the Presidential election. I had 3 states wrong: Florida, Indiana and North Carolina, which I called for McCain but went for Obama — I was clearly off in Florida, which Obama won by 2.4%. Indiana and North Carolina went to Obama by razor-thin margins, 0.9% and 0.4%, respectively. New Mexico and Nevada went more strongly for Obama than anticipated. And some of the red states went for McCain a little more strongly than I thought. But overall, not too many shockers. On the national vote, Obama did ever-so-slightly better than I expected, by 0.7% overall (since I over-estimated the “others” by 0.7%). I had McCain’s vote exact, at 46.3%. Below are the predicted vs actual for each state.

OVERALL

Barack Obama / 51.7% predicted / 52.4% actual
John McCain / 46.3% predicted / 46.3% actual
Others / 2.0% predicted / 1.3% actual

STATE PREDICTIONS (first number is predicted, second number is actual)

Battlegrounds (10% or less margin)
X - Florida / 27 EVs / McCain +2.6% / Obama +2.4%
Pennsylvania / 21 EVs / Obama +6.2% / Obama +10.3%
Ohio / 20 EVs / Obama +1.1% / Obama +3.8%
X - North Carolina / 15 EVs / McCain +4.8% / Obama +0.4%
Georgia / 15 EVs / McCain +6.0% / McCain +5.5%
Virginia / 13 EVs / Obama +1.9% / Obama +4.5%
Missouri / 11 EVs / McCain +3.5% / McCain +0.2%
X - Indiana / 11 EVs / McCain +4.3% / Obama +0.9%
Minnesota / 10 EVs / Obama +9.8% / Obama +10.2%
Wisconsin / 10 EVs / Obama +9.3% / Obama +13.9%
Arizona / 10 EVs / McCain +5.0% / McCain +8.6%
Colorado / 9 EVs / Obama +5.0% / Obama +6.8%
New Mexico / 5 EVs / Obama +7.9% / Obama +15.1%
Nevada / 5 EVs / Obama +6.9% / Obama +12.4%
New Hampshire / 4 EVs / Obama +9.0% / Obama +9.5%
Montana / 3 EVs / McCain +4.9% / McCain +2.5%
North Dakota / 3 EVs / McCain +4.7% / McCain +8.6%

Safe Democrat (10% or more margin)
California / 55 EVs / Obama +23.6% / Obama +24.0%
New York / 31 EVs / Obama +28.2% / Obama +25.4%
Illinois / 21 EVs / Obama +22.6% / Obama +24.7%
Michigan / 17 EVs / Obama +12.9% / Obama +16.5%
New Jersey / 15 EVs / Obama +15.2% / Obama +14.6%
Massachusetts / 12 EVs / Obama +20.5% / Obama +25.8%
Washington / 11 EVs / Obama +16.1% / Obama +17.3%
Maryland / 10 EVs / Obama +15.6% / Obama +23.1%
Connecticut / 7 EVs / Obama +18.5% / Obama +21.5%
Oregon / 7 EVs / Obama +15.0% / Obama +16.1%
Iowa / 7 EVs / Obama +13.9% / Obama +9.3%
Maine / 4 EVs / Obama +15.1% / Obama +17.3%
Rhode Island / 4 EVs / Obama +22.9% / Obama +28.3%
Hawaii / 4 EVs / Obama +35.4% / Obama +45.2%
Vermont / 3 EVs / Obama +28.3% / Obama +35.2%
Delaware / 3 EVs / Obama +17.2% / Obama +23.7%
D.C. / 3 EVs / Obama +83.6% / Obama +86.4%

Safe Republican (10% or more margin)
Texas / McCain +14.5% / McCain +11.7%
Tennessee / 11 EVs / McCain +12.3% / McCain +15.1%
Louisiana / 9 EVs / McCain +17.7% / McCain +18.7%
Alabama / 9 EVs / McCain +25.1% / McCain +21.6%
Kentucky / 8 EVs / McCain +14.6% / McCain +16.4%
South Carolina / 8 EVs / McCain +10.9% / McCain +8.9%
Oklahoma / 7 EVs / McCain +33.1% / McCain +31.2%
Mississippi / 6 EVs / McCain +10.1% / McCain +13.8%
Kansas / 6 EVs / McCain +13.8% / McCain +15.4%
Arkansas / 6 EVs / McCain +12.6% / McCain +20.0%
Utah / 5 EVs / McCain +34.5% / McCain +28.7%
Nebraska / 5 EVs / McCain +21.9% / McCain +16.1%
West Virginia / 5 EVs / McCain +12.9% / McCain +13.1%
Idaho / 4 EVs / McCain +27.1% / McCain +25.4%
Wyoming / 3 EVs / McCain +24.8% / McCain +32.5%
South Dakota / 3 EVs / McCain +11.7% / McCain +8.5%
Alaska / 3 EVs / McCain +15.9% / McCain +25.3%

OVERALL
Barack Obama / 311 EVs / 51.7% (+5.4%)
John McCain / 227 EVs / 46.3%
Others / - / 2.0%

STATE PREDICTIONS

Battlegrounds (10% or less margin)
Florida / 27 EVs / McCain +2.6%
Pennsylvania / 21 EVs / Obama +6.2%
Ohio / 20 EVs / Obama +1.1%
North Carolina / 15 EVs / McCain +4.8%
Georgia / 15 EVs / McCain +6.0%
Virginia / 13 EVs / Obama +1.9%
Missouri / 11 EVs / McCain +3.5%
Indiana / 11 EVs / McCain +4.3%
Minnesota / 10 EVs / Obama +9.8%
Wisconsin / 10 EVs / Obama +9.3%
Arizona / 10 EVs / McCain +5.0%
Colorado / 9 EVs / Obama +5.0%
New Mexico / 5 EVs / Obama +7.9%
Nevada / 5 EVs / Obama +6.9%
New Hampshire / 4 EVs / Obama +9.0%
Montana / 3 EVs / McCain +4.9%
North Dakota / 3 EVs / McCain +4.7%

Safe Democrat (10% or more margin)
California / 55 EVs / Obama +23.6%
New York / 31 EVs / Obama +28.2%
Illinois / 21 EVs / Obama +22.6%
Michigan / 17 EVs / Obama +12.9%
New Jersey / 15 EVs / Obama +15.2%
Massachusetts / 12 EVs / Obama +20.5%
Washington / 11 EVs / Obama +16.1%
Maryland / 10 EVs / Obama +15.6%
Connecticut / 7 EVs / Obama +18.5%
Oregon / 7 EVs / Obama +15.0%
Iowa / 7 EVs / Obama +13.9%
Maine / 4 EVs / Obama +15.1%
Rhode Island / 4 EVs / Obama +22.9%
Hawaii / 4 EVs / Obama +35.4%
Vermont / 3 EVs / Obama +28.3%
Delaware / 3 EVs / Obama +17.2%
D.C. / 3 EVs / Obama +83.6%

Safe Republican (10% or more margin)
Texas / McCain +14.5%
Tennessee / 11 EVs / McCain +12.3%
Louisiana / 9 EVs / McCain +17.7%
Alabama / 9 EVs / McCain +25.1%
Kentucky / 8 EVs / McCain +14.6%
South Carolina / 8 EVs / McCain +10.9%
Oklahoma / 7 EVs / McCain +33.1%
Mississippi / 6 EVs / McCain +10.1%
Kansas / 6 EVs / McCain +13.8%
Arkansas / 6 EVs / McCain +12.6%
Utah / 5 EVs / McCain +34.5%
Nebraska / 5 EVs / McCain +21.9%
West Virginia / 5 EVs / McCain +12.9%
Idaho / 4 EVs / McCain +27.1%
Wyoming / 3 EVs / McCain +24.8%
South Dakota / 3 EVs / McCain +11.7%
Alaska / 3 EVs / McCain +15.9%

Updated: 2 Nov
Note: Virginia has moved into Obama’s column (at least for now)
Note: Ohio has moved into Obama’s column (at least for now)
Note: Florida has moved into Obama’s column (at least for now)
Note: Nevada has moved into Obama’s column (at least for now)
Note: North Carolina has moved into Obama’s column (at least for now)

In case anyone is interested in the U.S. Presidential election, if the election was held today, Barack Obama would win with 353 electoral college votes to John McCain’s 185. But the race is extremely close — there are many states were the margin of victory is 3% or less. These numbers are based on a rolling average of state polls. Below is the breakdown (sorted from most to least electoral college votes). Note: the number in parenthesis is the percentage lead the candidate is ahead and EV means electoral college votes. Top battleground states (where margin-of-victory is 5% or less) are highlighted in red.

Obama beats in McCain in:

California (+24.0) — 55 EV
New York (+29.7) — 31 EV
Florida (+4.1) — 27 EV
Illinois (+23.5) — 21 EV
Pennsylvania (+7.0) — 21 EV
Ohio (+4.2) — 20 EV
Michigan (+12.7) — 17 EV
New Jersey (+15.3) — 15 EV
North Carolina (+0.3) — 15 EV
Virginia (+5.0) — 13 EV
Massachusetts (+23.7) — 12 EV
Washington (+17.0) — 11 EV
Minnesota (+11.5) — 10 EV
Wisconsin (+11.0) — 10 EV
Maryland (+11.4) — 10 EV
Colorado (+5.5) — 9 EV
Connecticut (+19.3) — 7 EV
Oregon (+15.6) — 7 EV
Iowa (+15.3) — 7 EV
New Mexico (+7.3) — 5 EV
Nevada (+5.8) — 5 EV
New Hampshire (+10.7) — 4 EV
Maine (+15.6) — 4 EV
Rhode Island (+22.7) — 4 EV
Hawaii (+35.5) — 4 EV
Vermont (+24.5) — 3 EV
Delaware (+17.6) — 3 EV
D.C. (-) — 3 EV
–
TOTAL — Barack Obama 364 EV

(more…)

Updated: 2 Nov

While the raw poll numbers are interesting, what’s really surprising is which states are swinging most towards Barack Obama. Comparing the 2004 presidential results with the current polling average shows that Obama has made huge gains in some traditionally Republican states. Two regions stand out: the Mid-West and Mountain regions. Obama won’t win many of these states, but the swing towards him is often dramatic and bodes well for the Democrats in the future.

Not surprisingly, Hawaii is the biggest shift (since Obama is from there). But many of the other big swings are surprising: North Dakota, Indiana, Wyoming, Montana, Virginia, Idaho, and Nebraska, South Dakota, Kansas, Colorado, and Iowa for example have all shifted towards significantly towards Obama.

In fact, only 4 states are currently polling higher for McCain than what Bush received in 2004, but even there only by 1-2 points: ironically Massachusetts (no doubt because its senator, John Kerry, ran in 2004), Maryland (although the polling data is old here, so Obama might actually be ahead of Kerry), and Louisiana (possibly because many African-Americans left the state following Hurricane Katrina). Note: the data for several small non-competitive states (Vermont, Rhode Island, etc) is quite old, so Obama may be much higher now in these states.

Due to a massive spike in traffic, we crashed our server earlier this evening. We apologize for the inconvenience. We moved our Canada 2008 site to a new server; however, they are having trouble getting that server to play nice. Our tech people are continuing to work on the problem and will hopefully get it back up soon.

In the meantime, feel free to check out our FINAL SEAT PROJECTIONS — which what everyone really wants to know anyway!

Here it is folks. Bookmark and spread the word.

http://democraticSPACE.com/canada2008 (offline)

We have a large number of bloggers writing from across the country and across the political spectrum. These articles can be sorted by date, by party, by topic, by region, or by author. We have individual riding pages, where you can comment on each race (and we may also add a separate discussion forum). And of course we have the riding-by-riding projections. Keep in mind we are still adding content to the riding pages (past election results, candidates, news feeds, etc) and still posting the projected winners, but it’s mostly there. Note also we have not added candidate ads — the ads shown are for the Ontario 2007 election to illustrate how it works. The goal is to have the site more or less complete by the start of the news cycle Monday morning.

I’ll be posting over there until mid-October.

DemocraticSPACE will launch its Canada 2008 coverage on Sunday, September 14, giving us one full month of election coverage. We have assembled a large team of bloggers from across the country and across the political spectrum, providing reports and commentary on local ridings and regional issues. Also, we will also provide poll tracking, riding-by-riding projections, and riding-by-riding discussions, and more. As we did for the Ontario provincial campaign, we are also offering candidates and parties advertising opportunities. So stay tuned for the launch of our new site on Sunday, September 14.