Here are DemocraticSPACE’s average projections for the Ontario election. Keep in mind that there is actually a range of outcomes (the #s below represent the average). Riding-by-riding projections are here: http://t.co/mx0ECWc9.

Province-Wide
Liberal – 60 seats (40.0%)
PC – 31 seats (34.2%)
NDP – 16 seats (21.0%)
Green – 0 seats (3.5%)

Northern Ontario
Liberal – 2 seats (31.9%)
PC – 1 seat (23.0%)
NDP – 7 seats (42.0%)
Green – 0 seats (1.5%)

Ottawa
Liberal – 5 seats (42.0%)
PC – 2 seats (35.9%)
NDP – 0 seats (15.4%)
Green – 0 seats (4.6%)

Eastern Ontario
Liberal – 3 seats (35.0%)
PC – 4 seats (47.3%)
NDP – 0 seats (13.5%)
Green – 0 seats (2.9%)

Central Ontario
Liberal – 2 seats (33.4%)
PC – 7 seats (46.4%)
NDP – 0 seats (13.8%)
Green – 0 seats (5.5%)

Midwestern Ontario
Liberal – 4 seats (35.1%)
PC – 6 seats (39.5%)
NDP – 0 seats (16.2%)
Green – 0 seats (5.6%)

Southwestern Ontario
Liberal – 8 seats (38.6%)
PC – 3 seats (33.5%)
NDP – 0 seats (23.8%)
Green – 0 seats (3.1%)

Hamilton/Niagara
Liberal – 4 seats (33.4%)
PC – 3 seats (35.9%)
NDP – 4 seats (27.1%)
Green – 0 seats (2.9%)

The 905
Liberal – 15 seats (44.2%)
PC – 5 seats (36.1%)
NDP – 0 seats (15.5%)
Green – 0 seats (3.1%)

Toronto
Liberal – 17 seats (48.6%)
PC – 0 seats (23.2%)
NDP – 5 seats (23.3%)
Green – 0 seats (3.0%)

see http://bit.ly/rtk0SE for riding-by-riding estimates

Liberal – 47 seats (35.8%)
PC – 40 seats (34.4%)
NDP – 20 seats (24.3%)
Green – 0 seats (4.2%)

FYI, I will re-directing the blog to the Canada 2011 Election site until the end of the campaign. The direct link is http://democraticspace.com/canada2011. The blog will return after the election…

Here is the pre-writ baseline projection for Friday, March 25…

CURRENT PROJECTIONS (through Mar 25)

CANADA
CPC – avg 158 seats (39.6%) – low 137 (38.1%), high 174 (41.1%)
LPC – avg 69 (26.5%) – low 57 (25.0%), high 93 (28.0%)
BQ – avg 49 (10.2%) – low 43 (8.7%), high 54 (11.7%)
NDP – avg 32 (16.7%) – low 24 (15.2%), high 41 (18.2%)
GPC – avg 0 (6.1%) – low 0 (4.6%), high 0 (7.6%)

ONTARIO
CPC – avg 58 seats (43.3%) – low 49 (41.8%), high 69 (44.8%)
LPC – avg 33 (31.6%) – low 25 (30.1%), high 44 (33.1%)
NDP – avg 15 (17.1%) – low 11 (15.6%), high 18 (18.6%)
GPC – avg 0 (7.2%) – low 0 (5.7%), high 0 (8.7%)

QUEBEC
BQ – avg 49 seats (38.1%) – low 43 (36.6%), high 54 (39.6%)
LPC – avg 14 (22.9%) – low 12 (21.4%), high 20 (24.4%)
CPC – avg 11 (20.4%) – low 8 (18.9%), high 11 (21.9%)
NDP – avg 1 (15.0%) – low 1 (13.5%), high 2 (16.5%)
GPC – avg 0 (2.7%) – low 0 (1.2%), high 0 (4.2%)

BRITISH COLUMBIA
CPC – avg 25 seats (44.6%) – low 20 (43.1%), high 27 (46.1%)
NDP – avg 7 (22.2%) – low 5 (20.7%), high 9 (23.7%)
LPC – avg 4 (20.2%) – low 3 (18.7%), high 5 (21.7%)
GPC – avg 0 (11.5%) – low 0 (10.0%), high 0 (13.0%)

ALBERTA
CPC – avg 27 seats (62.4%) – low 27 (60.9%), high 28 (63.9%)
NDP – avg 1 (11.2%) – low 0 (9.7%), high 1 (12.7%)
LPC – avg 0 (13.5%) – low 0 (12.0%), high 0 (15.0%)
GPC – avg 0 (10.5%) – low 0 (9.0%), high 0 (12.0%)

PRAIRIES
CPC – avg 23 seats (56.1%) – low 22 (54.6%), high 24 (57.6%)
NDP – avg 3 (19.1%) – low 2 (17.6%), high 4 (20.6%)
LPC – avg 2 (18.9%) – low 2 (17.4%), high 3 (20.4%)
GPC – avg 0 (5.2%) – low 0 (3.7%), high 0 (6.7%)

ATLANTIC CANADA
LPC – avg 15 seats (34.7%) – low 13 (33.2%), high 18 (36.2%)
CPC – avg 13 (37.2%) – low 11 (35.7%), high 15 (38.7%)
NDP – avg 4 (21.8%) – low 4 (20.3%), high 4 (23.3%)
GPC – avg 0 (6.3%) – low 0 (4.8%), high 0 (7.8%)

NORTH
CPC – avg 1 seat (36.9%) – low 1 (35.4%), high 2 (38.4%)
LPC – avg 1 (29.8%) – low 1 (28.3%), high 1 (31.3%)
NDP – avg 1 (23.7%) – low 0 (22.2%), high 1 (25.2%)
GPC – avg 0 (9.0%) – low 0 (7.5%), high 0 (10.5%)

GREEN (as of 25 Mar)

SAFE (> 10 pt ahead) = 0
>>> absolute minimum = 0 seats
STRONG (5-10 pt ahead) = 0
>>> likely low = 0 seats
LEANING (< 5 pt ahead) = 0
>>> current projection = 0 seats
CLOSE (< 5 pts behind) = 0
>>> likely high = 0 seats
POSSIBLE (5-10 pts behind) = 1
>>> absolute maximum = 1 seat

(1) POSSIBLE (trailing by 5-10 pts)
BC Saanich-Gulf Islands

BLOC QUEBECOIS (as of 25 Mar)

SAFE (> 10 pt ahead) = 40
>>> absolute minimum = 40 seats
STRONG (5-10 pt ahead) = 3
>>> likely low = 43 seats
LEANING (< 5 pt ahead) = 6
>>> current average = 49 seats
CLOSE (< 5 pts behind) = 5
>>> likely high = 54 seats
POSSIBLE (5-10 pts behind) = 2
>>> absolute maximum = 56 seats

(40) SAFE (> 10 pt ahead)
QC Abitibi-Baie James
QC Abitibi-Temiscamingue
QC Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel
QC Bas-Richelieu-Nicolet-Bécancour
QC Beauharnois-Salaberry
QC Berthier-Maskinongé
QC Chambly-Borduas
QC Châteauguay-Saint-Constant
QC Compton-Stanstead
QC Drummond
QC Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine
QC Hochelaga
QC Joliette
QC La Pointe-de-l’Île
QC Laurentides-Labelle
QC Laurier-Sainte-Marie
QC Longueuil-Pierre Boucher
QC Manicougan
QC Marc-Aurèle-Fortin
QC Montcalm
QC Montmorency-Charlevoix
QC Louis-Hébert
QC Québec
QC Repentigny
QC Richmond-Arthabaska
QC Rimouski-Neigette-Témis.-Les Basques
QC Rivière-des-Milles-Îles
QC Rivière-du-Nord
QC Rosemont-La Petit Patrie
QC Saint-Maurice-Champlain
QC Shefford
QC Sherbrooke
QC Saint-Bruno-Saint-Hubert
QC Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot
QC Saint-Jean
QC Saint-Lambert
QC Terrebonne-Blainville
QC Trois Rivières
QC Vaudreuil-Soulanges
QC Verchères-Les Patriotes

(3) STRONG (5-10 pt ahead)
QC Alfred-Pellan
QC Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
QC Laval

(6) LEANING (< 5 pt ahead)
QC Ahuntsic
QC Brome-Missisquoi
QC Gatineau
QC Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia
QC Jeanne-Le Ber
QC Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier

(5) CLOSE (< 5 pts behind)
QC Beauport-Limoilou
QC Brossard-La Prairie
QC Montmagny-L’Islet-Kamouraska-RDL
QC Papineau
QC Roberval-Lac Saint Jean

(2) POSSIBLE (5-10 pts behind)
QC Charlesbourg-Haute Saint-Charles
QC Jonquiere-Alma

NDP (as of 25 Mar)

SAFE (> 10 pt ahead) = 17
>>> absolute minimum = 17 seats
STRONG (5-10 pt ahead) = 8
>>> likely low = 25 seats
LEANING (< 5 pt ahead) = 8
>>> current projection = 32 seats
CLOSE (< 5 pts behind) = 7
>>> likely high = 40 seats
POSSIBLE (5-10 pts behind) = 5
>>> absolute maximum = 45 seats

(17) SAFE (> 10 pt ahead)
BC Burnaby-New Westminster
BC Vancouver East
BC Victoria
MB Churchill
MB Winnipeg Centre
NB Acadie-Bathurst
NL St. John’s East
NS Sackville-Eastern Shore
ON Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing
ON Hamilton Centre
ON Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
ON Nickel Belt
ON Ottawa Centre
ON Timmins-James Bay
ON Toronto-Danforth
ON Windsor-Tecumseh
ON Windsor West

(8) STRONG (5-10 pt ahead)
BC B.C. Southern Interior
BC New Westminster-Coquitlam
BC Skeena-Bulkley Valley
NS Halifax
ON Hamilton Mountain
ON London-Fanshawe
ON Thunder Bay-Rainy River
QC Outremont

(8) LEANING (< 5 pt ahead)
AB Edmonton-Strathcona
BC Nanaimo-Cowichan
BC Vancouver-Kingsway
MB Winnipeg North
ON Sudbury
ON Thunder Bay-Superior North
ON Trinity-Spadina
YT Western Arctic

(7) CLOSE (< 5 pts behind)
BC Burnaby-Douglas
BC Surrey North
MB Elmwood-Transcona
NL St. John’s South-Mount Pearl
ON Sault Ste Marie
ON Welland
QC Gatineau

(5) POSSIBLE (5-10 pts behind)
BC Vancouver Island North
NL St. John’s South-Mount Pearl
NU Nunavut
ON Parkdale-High Park
SK Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar

LIBERAL (as of 25 Mar)

SAFE (> 10 pt ahead) = 42
>>> absolute minimum = 42 seats
STRONG (5-10 pt ahead) = 15
>>> likely low = 57 seats
LEANING (< 5 pt ahead) = 12
>>> current projection = 69 seats
CLOSE (< 5 pts behind) = 23
>>> likely high = 92 seats
POSSIBLE (5-10 pts behind) = 11
>>> absolute maximum = 103 seats

(42) SAFE (> 10 pt ahead)
NB Beausejour
(1)
NL Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor
NL Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte
NL Labrador
NL Random-Burin-St. George’s
(4)
NS Cape Breton-Canso
NS Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
NS Halifax West
NS Kings-Hants
NS Sydney-Victoria
(5)
ON Davenport
ON Don Valley East
ON Etobicoke North
ON Markham-Unionville
ON Mississauga East-Cooksville
ON Ottawa South
ON Ottawa-Vanier
ON Pickering-Scarborough East
ON Scarborough-Agincourt
ON Scarborough Centre
ON Scarborough-Guildwood
ON Scarborough-Rouge River
ON St. Paul’s
ON Toronto Centre
ON York South-Weston
ON York West
(16)
PE Cardigan
PE Charlottetown
(2)
QC Bourassa
QC Honore-Mercier
QC Hull-Aylmer
QC Lac-Saint-Louis
QC Lasalle-Emard
QC Laval-Les Iles
QC Mont Royal
QC Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine
QC Pierrefonds-Dollard
QC Saint-Laurent-Cartierville
QC Saint-Leonard-Saint-Michel
QC Westmount-Ville Marie
(12)
SK Wascana
(1)
YT Yukon
(1)

(15) STRONG (5-10 pt ahead)
BC Newton-North Delta
BC Vancouver Centre
BC Vancouver-Quadra
MB Winnipeg South Centre
NB Madawaska-Restigouche
NL St. John’s South-Mount Pearl
ON Beaches-East York
ON Etobicoke Centre
ON Etobicoke-Lakeshore
ON Mississauga-Brampton South
ON Nipissing-Timiskaming
ON Parkdale-High Park
ON Richmond Hill
ON Scarborough Southwest
ON Willowdale

(12) LEANING (< 5 pt ahead)
BC Vancouver South
NL Avalon
ON Ajax-Pickering
ON Bramalea-Gore-Malton
ON Don Valley West
ON Eglinton-Lawrence
ON Kingston & the Islands
ON London North Centre
ON Mississauga-Streetsville
ON York Centre
QC Brossard-La Prairie
QC Papineau

(23) CLOSE (< 5 pts behind)
BC Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
BC North Vancouver
BC Vancouver-Kingsway
MB Winnipeg North
NB Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
ON Brampton-Springdale
ON Brampton West
ON Guelph
ON Kitchener-Conestoga
ON Kitchener-Waterloo
ON Mississauga-Erindale
ON Mississauga South
ON Oak Ridges-Markham
ON Sudbury
ON Trinity-Spadina
ON Vaughan
PE Egmont
PE Malpeque
QC Ahuntsic
QC Brome-Missisquoi
QC Gatineau
QC Haute-Gaspesie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapedia
QC Jeanne-Le Ber

(11) POSSIBLE (5-10 pts behind)
BC Saanich-Gulf Islands
MB Saint Boniface
NB Saint John
NB Miramichi
NS West Nova
NU Nunavut
ON London West
ON Thunder Bay-Rainy River
ON Welland
QC Outremont
QC Pontiac

CONSERVATIVE (as of 25 Mar)

SAFE (> 10 pt ahead) = 123
>>> absolute minimum = 123 seats
STRONG (5-10 pt ahead) = 14
>>> likely low = 137 seats
LEANING (< 5 pt ahead) = 21
>>> current projection = 158 seats
CLOSE (< 5 pts behind) = 16
>>> likely high = 174 seats
POSSIBLE (5-10 pts behind) = 10
>>> absolute maximum = 184 seats

(123) SAFE (> 10 pt ahead)
AB Calgary Centre
AB Calgary Centre-North
AB Calgary East
AB Calgary Northeast
AB Calgary-Nose Hill
AB Calgary Southeast
AB Calgary Southwest
AB Calgary West
AB Crowfoot
AB Edmonton Centre
AB Edmonton East
AB Edmonton-Leduc
AB Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont
AB Edmonton-St. Albert
AB Edmonton-Sherwood Park
AB Edmonton-Spruce Grove
AB Fort McMurray-Athabasca
AB Lethbridge
AB Macleod
AB Medicine Hat
AB Peace River
AB Red Deer
AB Vegreville-Wainright
AB Westlock-St. Paul
AB Wetaskiwin
AB Wild Rose
AB Yellowhead
(27)
BC Abbotsford
BC Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon
BC Cariboo-Prince George
BC Delta-Richmond East
BC Fleetwood-Port Kells
BC Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo
BC Kelowna-Lake Country
BC Kootenay-Columbia
BC Langley
BC Nanaimo-Alberni
BC Okanagan-Coquihalla
BC Okanagan-Shuswap
BC Prince George-Peace River
BC Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission
BC Port Moody-Westwood-P Coquitlam
BC Richmond
BC South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale
BC West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-STSC
(18)
MB Brandon-Souris
MB Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia
MB Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette
MB Kildonan-St. Paul
MB Portage-Lisgar
MB Provencher
MB Selkirk-Interlake
(7)
NB Fredericton
NB Fundy Royal
NB New Brunswick Southwest
NB Tobique-Mactaquac
(4)
NS Central Nova
NS Cumberland-Colchester-Musquo. Valley
NS South Shore-St. Margaret’s
(3)
ON Ancaster-Dundas-Flamsborough-Westdale
ON Barrie
ON Brant
ON Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
ON Burlington
ON Carlton-Mississippi Mills
ON Cambridge
ON Chatham-Kent-Essex
ON Dufferin-Caledon
ON Durham
ON Elgin-Middlesex-London
ON Essex
ON Carleton-Mississippi Mills
ON Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
ON Haldimand-Norfolk
ON Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
ON Halton
ON Huron-Bruce
ON Kenora
ON Kitchener-Conestoga
ON Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
ON Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox & Addington
ON Leeds-Grenville
ON Nepean-Carleton
ON Newmarket-Aurora
ON Niagara Falls
ON Niagara West-Glanbrook
ON Oakville
ON Oshawa
ON Ottawa West-Nepean
ON Oxford
ON Parry Sound-Muskoka
ON Perth-Wellington
ON Peterborough
ON Prince Edward-Hastings
ON Nepean-Carleton
ON Northumberland-Quinte West
ON Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke
ON Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry
ON Simcoe-Grey
ON Simcoe North
ON Thornhill
ON Sarnia-Lambton
ON St. Catharines
ON Wellington-Halton Hills
ON Whitby-Oshawa
ON York-Simcoe
(47)
QC Beauce
QC Louis-Saint-Laurent
QC Lévis-Bellechasse
QC Lotbinière-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
QC Mégantic-L’Érable
(5)
SK Battlefords-Lloydminster
SK Blackstrap
SK Cypress Hills-Grasslands
SK Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River
SK Palliser
SK Prince Albert
SK Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre
SK Regina-Qu’Appelle
SK Saskatoon-Humboldt
SK Saskatoon-Wanuskewin
SK Souris-Moose Mountain
SK Yorkton-Melville
(12)

(14) STRONG (5-10 pt ahead)
BC Saanich-Gulf Islands
BC Vancouver Island North
MB Saint Boniface
MB Winnipeg South
NB Miramichi
NB Saint John
NS West Nova
NU Nunavut
ON London West
ON Ottawa-Orleans
QC Charlesbourg-Haute Saint-Charles
QC Jonquiere-Alma
QC Pontiac
SK Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar

(21) LEANING (< 5 pt ahead)
BC Burnaby-Douglas
BC Esquimalt-Juan De Fuca
BC New Westminster-Coquitlam
BC North Vancouver
BC Surrey North
NB Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
ON Brampton-Springdale
ON Brampton West
ON Guelph
ON Kitchener Centre
ON Kitchener-Waterloo
ON Mississauga-Erindale
ON Mississauga South
ON Oak Ridges-Markham
ON Sault Ste. Marie
ON Vaughan
ON Welland
PE Egmont
PE Malpeque
QC Beauport-Limoilou
QC Montmagny-L’Islet-Kamouraska-RDL

(16) CLOSE (< 5 pts behind)
AB Edmonton-Strathcona
BC Nanaimo-Cowichan
BC Vancouver South
MB Elmwood-Transcona
NL Avalon
ON Ajax-Pickering
ON Bramalea-Gore-Malton
ON Don Valley West
ON Eglinton-Lawrence
ON Kingston & The Islands
ON London North Centre
ON Sudbury
ON Thunder Bay-Superior
ON York Centre
QC Roberval-Lac Saint Jean
YT Western Arctic

(10) POSSIBLE (5-10 pts behind)
BC B.C. Southern Interior
BC Newton-North Delta
BC Skeena-Bulkley Valley
BC Vancouver Centre
BC Vancouver-Quadra
MB Winnipeg South Centre
NB Madawaska-Restigouche
ON Hamilton Mountain
ON London-Fanshawe
QC Chicoutimi-Le Fjord

New Ekos, Ipsos and Leger polls in the past week, so here are the latest projections — Conservatives hovering right around majority territory…

CURRENT PROJECTIONS (through Mar 20)

CANADA
CPC – avg 155 seats (39.6%) – low 134 (38.1%), high 171 (41.1%)
LPC – avg 71 (26.4%) – low 60 (24.9%), high 89 (27.9%)
BQ – avg 50 (10.2%) – low 43 (8.7%), high 54 (11.7%)
NDP – avg 32 (16.5%) – low 26 (15.0%), high 38 (18.0%)
GPC – avg 0 (6.1%) – low 0 (4.6%), high 0 (7.6%)

ONTARIO
CPC – avg 55 seats (42.3%) – low 46 (41.8%), high 64 (44.8%)
LPC – avg 36 (32.0%) – low 30 (31.5%), high 44 (34.5%)
NDP – avg 15 (17.0%) – low 12 (15.5%), high 17 (18.5%)
GPC – avg 0 (7.9%) – low 0 (6.4%), high 0 (9.4%)

QUEBEC
BQ – avg 50 seats (39.0%) – low 43 (37.5%), high 54 (40.5%)
LPC – avg 13 (23.1%) – low 12 (21.6%), high 19 (24.6%)
CPC – avg 11 (19.2%) – low 7 (17.7%), high 11 (20.7%)
NDP – avg 1 (15.1%) – low 1 (13.6%), high 2 (16.6%)
GPC – avg 0 (2.7%) – low 0 (1.2%), high 0 (4.2%)

BRITISH COLUMBIA
CPC – avg 25 seats (45.3%) – low 19 (43.8%), high 27 (46.8%)
NDP – avg 7 (22.6%) – low 6 (21.1%), high 9 (24.1%)
LPC – avg 4 (21.4%) – low 3 (19.9%), high 7 (22.9%)
GPC – avg 0 (9.1%) – low 0 (7.6%), high 0 (10.6%)

ALBERTA
CPC – avg 28 seats (67.6%) – low 27 (66.1%), high 28 (69.1%)
LPC – avg 0 (10.0%) – low 0 (8.5%), high 0 (11.5%)
NDP – avg 0 (10.3%) – low 0 (8.8%), high 1 (11.8%)
GPC – avg 0 (9.7%) – low 0 (8.2%), high 0 (11.2%)

PRAIRIES
CPC – avg 22 seats (53.2%) – low 22 (51.7%), high 24 (54.7%)
NDP – avg 4 (20.0%) – low 3 (18.5%), high 4 (21.5%)
LPC – avg 2 (20.6%) – low 1 (19.1%), high 2 (22.1%)
GPC – avg 0 (5.4%) – low 0 (3.9%), high 0 (6.9%)

ATLANTIC CANADA
LPC – avg 15 seats (33.6%) – low 13 (32.1%), high 16 (35.1%)
CPC – avg 13 (37.7%) – low 12 (36.2%), high 15 (39.2%)
NDP – avg 4 (21.9%) – low 4 (20.4%), high 4 (23.4%)
GPC – avg 0 (6.1%) – low 0 (4.6%), high 0 (7.6%)

NORTH
CPC – avg 1 seat (37.0%) – low 1 (35.5%), high 2 (38.5%)
LPC – avg 1 (29.7%) – low 1 (28.2%), high 1 (31.2%)
NDP – avg 1 (23.5%) – low 0 (22.0%), high 1 (25.0%)
GPC – avg 0 (9.1%) – low 0 (7.6%), high 0 (10.6%)