Ipsos-Reid came out with another poll yesterday showing the Liberals and Conservatives neck-and-neck. For complete details, see:

http://election.democraticSPACE.com

Adding this to my 5-poll rolling average yield another narrowing between the Liberals and the Conservatives.

Note:
LPC+BQ=176
CPC+BQ=163
LPC+NDP=145
CPC+NDP=132

	2005 PREDICTED RESULTS – 16-29 Nov 05
	LPC	CPC	NDP	GRN	BQ	OTH
TOTAL SEATS	113	100	32	0	63	0
% OF SEATS	37%	32%	11%	0%	20%	0%

With the collapse of the government yesterday, three new polls (Environics, Pollara, Strategic Counsel) came out that each offer similar results. For complete details, see:

http://election.democraticSPACE.com

Adding these polls to my 5-poll rolling average yields a narrowing between the Liberals and the Conservatives, with a slight drop for the NDP. So, as the election begins, the last 5-poll rolling average ending with the Nov 28 polls shows a slim lead for the Liberals, but without enough NDP seats to prop them up (LPC+NDP=147, CPC+BQ=161):

	2005 PREDICTED RESULTS – 16-28 Nov 05
	LPC	CPC	NDP	GRN	BQ	OTH
TOTAL SEATS	114	98	33	0	63	0
% OF SEATS	37%	32%	11%	0%	20%	0%

The above numbers correspond to the following 5-poll averages (change from 2004 election in parethesis):

NATIONAL
LPC 35.6% (-1.1%)
CPC 29.0% (-0.6%)
NDP 18.4% (+2.7%)
BQ 13.4% (+1.0%)
GPC 3.4% (-0.9%)

ONTARIO
LPC 41.6% (-3.1%)
CPC 33.6% (+1.1%)
NDP 20.0% (+1.9%)
GPC 4.2% (-0.3%)

QUEBEC
BQ 54.4% (+5.5%)
LPC 27.6% (-6.3%)
NDP 8.2% (+3.6%)
CPC 7.0% (-1.8%)
GPC 2.6% (-0.6%)

BRITISH COLUMBIA
LPC 35.6% (+7.0%)
NDP 32.0% (+5.5%)
CPC 27.4% (-8.9%)
GPC 4.8% (-1.5%)

ALBERTA
CPC 60.0% (-1.6%)
LPC 22.6% (+0.6%)
NDP 14.0% (+4.4%)
GPC 3.2% (-3.0%)

SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA
CPC 39.0% (-1.5%)
LPC 30.6% (+0.4%)
NDP 28.0% (+4.5%)
GPC 2.4% (-0.6%)

ATLANTIC CANADA
LPC 47.4% (+1.2%)
CPC 31.6% (+1.1%)
NDP 18.4% (-1.4%)
GPC 2.6% (-0.5%)

I’ve gone through the last 8 months worth of forecast that I have done and classified each riding in terms of where the Bloc Quebecois should spend its time and resources (from category 1 = battlegrounds, where most resources should go, to category 5 = no chance, where few resources should go). Obviously not everyone will agree with all of these, but this is based on looking at the best- and worst- cases for the Bloc Quebecois over the past 8 months and represents my best-guess.

REALISTIC BEST-CASE = 67 SEATS
REALISTIC MEDIUM-CASE = 57 SEATS
REALISTIC WORST-CASE = 47 SEATS

[Category 4] GUARANTEED WIN = 39
[Category 2] CLOSE BUT LIKELY TO WIN = 8
—> BOTTOM LINE = 47
[Category 1] BATTLEGROUND RIDINGS = 20
—> IF EVERYTHING FALLS THEIR WAY = 67
[Category 3] CLOSE BUT UNLIKELY TO WIN = 0
—> IF THE LIBERALS CRASH & BURN = 67
[Category 5] NO CHANCE = 8

CATEGORY 1 – BATTLEGROUND RIDINGS
1 QC OUTREMONT
2 QC JEANNE-LE BER
3 QC AHUNTSIC
4 QC PAPINEAU
5 QC BOURASSA
6 QC HONORE-MERCIER
7 QC LAVAL-LES ILES
8 QC BROSSARD-LA PRAIRIE
9 QC PONTIAC
10 QC HULL-AYLMER
11 QC GATINEAU
12 QC CHICOUTIMI-LE FJORD
13 QC LOUIS-SAINT-LAURENT
14 QC BROME-MISSISQUOI
15 QC BEAUCE
16 QC VAUDREUIL-SOULANGES
17 QC LAVAL
18 QC ALFRED-PELLAN
19 QC ABITIBI-BAIE JAMES-NUNAVIK-EEYOU
20 QC SHEFFORD

CATEGORY 2 – CLOSE BUT LIKELY TO WIN
1 QC SAINT LAMBERT
2 QC LOUIS-HEBERT
3 QC LEVIS-BELLECHASSE
4 QC PORTNEUF-JACQUES CARTIER
5 QC COMPTON-STANSTEAD
6 QC MEGANTIC-L’ERABLE
7 QC LOTBINIERE-CHUTES-DE-LA-CHAUDIERE
8 QC BEAUHARNOIS-SALABERRY

CATEGORY 3 – CLOSE BUT NOT LIKELY TO WIN
NONE

CATEGORY 4 – GUARANTEED SEATS
1 QC LAURIER-SAINTE MARIE
2 QC ROSEMONT-LA PETITE PATRIE
3 QC HOCHELAGA
4 QC LA POINTE DE L’ILE
5 QC MARC-AURELE-FORTIN
6 QC RIVIERE-DES-MILLE-ILES
7 QC ARGENTEUIL-PAPINEAU-MIRABEL
8 QC TERREBONNNE-BLAINVILLE
9 QC MONTCALM
10 QC REPENTIGNY
11 QC LONGUEUIL-PIERRE BOUCHER
12 QC CHATEAUGUAY-SAINT CONSTANT
13 QC SAINT JEAN
14 QC CHAMBLY-BORDUAS
15 QC SAINT BRUNO-SAINT HUBERT
16 QC SAINT-HYACINTHE-BAGOT
17 QC VERCHERES-LES PATRIOTES
18 QC MANICOUAGAN
19 QC ABITIBI-TEMISCAMINGUE
20 QC LAURENTIDES-LABELLE
21 QC RIVIERE-DU-NORD
22 QC JOLIETTE
23 QC BERTHIER-MASKINONGE
24 QC TROIS-RIVIERES
25 QC SAINT MAURICE-CHAMPLAIN
26 QC ROBERTVAL-LAC SAINT JEAN
27 QC JONQUIERE-ALMA
28 QC MONTMAGNY-KAMOURASKA-RIVIERE DU LOUP
29 QC MONTMORENCY-CHARLEVOIX-HAUTE C0TE NORD
30 QC CHARLESBOURG-HAUTE-SAINT-CHARLES
31 QC BEAUPORT-LIMOILOU
32 QC QUEBEC
33 QC GASPESIE-ILES-DE-LA-MADELEINE
34 QC HAUTE-GASPESIE-LA MITIS-MATANE-MATAPEDIA
35 QC RIMOUSKI-NEIGETTE-TEMISCOUATA-LES BASQUES
36 QC SHERBROOKE
37 QC DRUMMOND
38 QC RICHMOND-ARTHABASKA
39 QC BAS-RICHELIEU-NICOLET-BECANCOUR

CATEGORY 5 – NO CHANCE
1 QC LAC SAINT-LOUIS
2 QC PIERREFONDS-DOLLARD
3 QC SAINT LAURENT-CARTIERVILLE
4 QC MONT-ROYAL
5 QC LASALLE-EMARD
6 QC WESTMOUNT-VILLE MARIE
7 QC SAINT LEONARD-SAINT MICHEL
8 QC NOTRE-DAME-DE-GRACE-LACHINE

I’ve gone through the last 8 months worth of forecast that I have done and classified each riding in terms of where the Liberals should spend its time and resources (from category 1 = battlegrounds, where most resources should go, to category 5 = no chance, where few resources should go). Obviously not everyone will agree with all of these, but this is based on looking at the best- and worst- cases for the Liberals over the past 8 months and represents my best-guess.

REALISTIC BEST-CASE = 168 SEATS
REALISTIC MEDIUM-CASE = 122 SEATS
REALISTIC WORST-CASE = 76 SEATS

[Category 4] GUARANTEED WIN = 47
[Category 2] CLOSE BUT LIKELY TO WIN = 29
—> BOTTOM LINE = 76
[Category 1] BATTLEGROUND RIDINGS = 92
—> IF EVERYTHING FALLS THEIR WAY = 168
[Category 3] CLOSE BUT UNLIKELY TO WIN = 40
—> IF THE CPC/NDP CRASH & BURN = 208
[Category 5] NO CHANCE = 100

CATEGORY 1 – BATTLEGROUND RIDINGS
1 ON NIPISSING-TIMISKAMING
2 ON PARRY SOUND-MUSKOKA
3 ON NICKEL BELT
4 ON SUDBURY
5 ON ALGOMA-MANITOULIN-KAPUSKASING
6 ON SAULT STE. MARIE
7 ON KENORA
8 ON THUNDER BAY-RAINY RIVER
9 ON THUNDER BAY-SUPERIOR NORTH
10 ON OTTAWA CENTRE
11 ON OTTAWA SOUTH
12 ON OTTAWA-ORLEANS
13 ON NEPEAN-CARLETON
14 ON OTTAWA WEST-NEPEAN
15 ON GLENGARRY-PRESCOTT-RUSSELL
16 ON PRINCE EDWARD HASTINGS
17 ON NORTHUMBERLAND-QUINTE WEST
18 ON PETERBOROUGH
19 ON HALIBURTON-KAWARTHA L-BROCK
20 ON DURHAM
21 ON WELLINGTON-HALTON HILLS
22 ON CAMBRIDGE
23 ON KITCHENER–CONESTOGA
24 ON ESSEX
25 ON LAMBTON–KENT–MIDDLESEX
26 ON CHATHAM-KENT-ESSEX
27 ON LONDON-FANSHAWE
28 ON HALDIMAND-NORFOLK
29 ON BRANT
30 ON ANCASTER-DUNDAS-FLAMB.-WESTDALE
31 ON NIAGARA WEST-GLANBROOK
32 ON HAMILTON EAST-STONEY CREEK
33 ON HAMILTON MOUNTAINNIAGARA FALLS
34 ON ST. CATHARINES
35 ON WELLAND
36 ON HALTON
37 ON BURLINGTON
38 ON WHITBY-OSHAWA
39 ON NEWMARKET-AURORA
40 ON SIMCOE NORTH
41 ON SIMCOE-GREY
42 ON BARRIE
43 ON TRINITY-SPADINA
44 ON DAVENPORT
45 ON PARKDALE-HIGH PARK
46 ON BEACHES-EAST YORK
47 ON NIAGARA FALLS
48 NS DARTMOUTH-COLE HARBOUR
49 NS HALIFAX
50 NS WEST NOVA
51 NS KINGS-HANTS
52 NS SOUTH SHORE-ST.MARGARET’S
53 NB TOBIQUE-MACTAQUAC
54 NL BONAVISTA–GANDER–GRAND FALLS–WINDSOR
55 NL AVALON
56 BC VICTORIA
57 BC ESQUIMALT-JUAN DE FUCA
58 BC SAANICH-GULF ISLANDS
59 BC KAMLOOPS-THOMPSON-CARIBOO
60 BC VANCOUVER CENTRE
61 BC BURNABY-DOUGLAS
62 BC VANCOUVER KINGSWAY
63 BC NEW WESTMINSTER-COQUITLAM
64 BC BURNABY-NEW WESTMINSTER
65 BC PORT MOODY-WESTWOOD-PORT COQUITLAM
66 BC DELTA-RICHMOND EAST
67 BC NEWTON-NORTH DELTA
68 BC FLEETWOOD-PORT KELLS
69 BC SOUTH SURREY-WHITE ROCK-CLOVERDALE
70 AB EDMONTON CENTRE
71 SK REGINA-QU’APPELLE
72 SK REGINA-LUMSDEN-LAKE CENTRE
73 MB KILDONAN-ST.PAUL
74 MB CHARLESWOOD-ST.JAMES-ASSINIBOIA
75 MB CHURCHILL
76 QC OUTREMONT
77 QC JEANNE-LE BER
78 QC AHUNTSIC
79 QC PAPINEAU
80 QC BOURASSA
81 QC HONORE-MERCIER
82 QC LAVAL-LES ILES
83 QC BROSSARD-LA PRAIRIE
84 QC VAUDREUIL-SOULANGES
85 QC PONTIAC
86 QC HULL-AYLMER
87 QC GATINEAU
88 QC CHICOUTIMI-LE FJORD
89 QC BEAUCE
90 QC BROME-MISSISQUOI
91 YT YUKON
92 NT WESTERN ARTIC

CATEGORY 2 – CLOSE BUT LIKELY TO WIN
1 ON OTTAWA-VANIER
2 ON GUELPH
3 ON KITCHENER-WATERLOO
4 ON KITCHENER CENTRE
5 ON SARNIA-LAMBTON
6 ON LONDON WEST
7 ON LONDON NORTH CENTRE
8 ON OAKVILLE
9 ON AJAX-PICKERING
10 ON BRAMPTON WEST
11 ON BRAMPTON-SPRINGDALE
12 ON BRAMALEA-GORE-MALTON
13 ON MISSISSAUGA-ERINDALE
14 ON OAK RIDGES-MARKHAM
15 ON ST. PAUL’S
16 ON YORK CENTRE
17 ON SCARBOROUGH SOUTHWEST
18 ON HURON-BRUCE
19 NS HALIFAX WEST
20 NB MADAWASKA-RESTIGOUCHE
21 NB MIRAMICHI
22 NB FREDERICTON
23 NB SAINT JOHN
24 NL LABRADOR
25 NL RANDOM-BURIN-ST.GEORGE’S
26 BC WEST VANCOUVER–SUNSHINE COAST–SEA TO SKY COUNTRY
27 BC NORTH VANCOUVER
28 BC RICHMOND
29 MB SAINT BONIFACE

CATEGORY 3 – CLOSE BUT NOT LIKELY TO WIN
1 ON TIMMINS-JAMES BAY
2 ON BRUCE–GREY–OWEN SOUND
3 ON PERTH-WELLINGTON
4 ON OXFORD
5 ON ELGIN-MIDDLESEX-LONDON
6 ON WINDSOR WEST
7 ON WINDSOR TECUMSEH
8 ON OSHAWA
9 ON YORK-SIMCOE
10 ON DUFFERIN-CALEDON
11 ON TORONTO-DANFORTH
12 ON HAMILTON CENTRE
13 NS SACKVILLE-EASTERN SHORE
14 NB FUNDY ROYAL
15 NL ST. JOHN’S EAST
16 NL ST. JOHN’S SOUTH–MOUNT PEARL
17 BC NANAIMO-ALBERNI
18 BC VANCOUVER ISLAND NORTH
19 BC OKANOGAN-SHUSWAP
20 BC CARIBOO-PRINCE GEORGE
21 BC PITT MEADOWS-MAPLE RIDGE-MISSION
22 BC KELOWNA-LAKE COUNTRY
23 BC SURREY NORTH
24 AB EDMONTON EAST
25 AB EDMONTON-MILL WOODS-BEAUMONT
26 AB EDMONTON-STRATHCONA
27 SK PALLISER
28 SK BLACKSTRAP
29 SK SASKATOON-HUMBOLDT
30 SK SASKATOON-WANUSKEWIN
31 SK DESNETHE-MISSINIPPI-CHURCHILL RIVER
32 SK PRINCE ALBERT
33 QC LAVAL
34 QC ALFRED-PELLAN
35 QC SAINT LAMBERT
36 QC SHEFFORD
37 QC ABITIBI-BAIE JAMES-NUNAVIK-EEYOU
38 QC LOUIS-HEBERT
39 QC COMPTON-STANSTEAD
40 QC MEGANTIC-L’ERABLE

CATEGORY 4 – GUARANTEED SEATS
1 ON KINGSTON & THE ISLANDS
2 ON MISSISSAUGA-STREETSVILLE
3 ON MISSISSAUGA SOUTH
4 ON MISSISSAUGA-BRAMPTON SOUTH
5 ON MISSISSAUGA EAST-COOKSVILLE
6 ON VAUGHN
7 ON RICHMOND HILL
8 ON MARKHAM-UNIONDALE
9 ON ETOBICOKE NORTH
10 ON ETOBICOKE CENTRE
11 ON ETOBICOKE-LAKESHORE
12 ON THORNHILL
13 ON YORK WEST
14 ON EGLINTON-LAWRENCE
15 ON YORK SOUTH-WESTON
16 ON PICKERING-SCARBOROUGH EAST
17 ON SCARBOROUGH-GUILDWOOD
18 ON SCARBOROUGH-ROUGE RIVER
19 ON SCARBOROUGH-AGINCOURT
20 ON SCARBOROUGH CENTRE
21 ON TORONTO CENTRE
22 ON DON VALLEY EAST
23 ON DON VALLEY WEST
24 ON WILLOWDALE
25 NS SYDNEY-VICTORIA
26 NS CAPE BRETON-CANSO
27 NB BEAUSEJOUR
28 NB MONCTON-RIVERVIEW-DIEPPE
29 NL HUMBER-ST.BARBE-BAIE VERTE
30 PE CARDIGAN
31 PE CHARLOTTETOWN
32 PE EGMONT
33 PE MALPEQUE
34 BC VANCOUVER QUADRA
35 BC VANCOUVER SOUTH
36 BC WASCANA
37 MB WINNIPEG SOUTH
38 MB WINNIPEG SOUTH CENTRE
39 QC LAC SAINT-LOUIS
40 QC PIERREFONDS-DOLLARD
41 QC NOTRE-DAME-DE-GRACE-LACHINE
42 QC SAINT LAURENT-CARTIERVILLE
43 QC MONT-ROYAL
44 QC LASALLE-EMARD
45 QC WESTMOUNT-VILLE MARIE
46 QC SAINT LEONARD-SAINT MICHEL
47 QC NUNAVUT

CATEGORY 5 – NO CHANCE
1 ON STORMONT-DUNDAS-SOUTH GLENGARRY
2 ON LEEDS-GRENVILLE
3 ON CARLETON–MISSISSIPPI MILLS
4 ON LANARK-FRONTENAC-LENNOX & ADDINGTON
5 ON RENFREW-NIPISSING-PEMBROKE
6 NS CUMBERLAND-COLCHESTER-MUSQUODOBOIT VALLEY
7 NS CENTRAL NOVA
8 NB ACADIE-BATHURST
9 NB NEW BRUNSWICK SOUTHWEST
10 BC NANAIMO-COWICHAN
11 BC SKEENA-BULKLEY VALLEY
12 BC PRINCE GEORGE-PEACE RIVER
13 BC KOOTENAY-COLUMBIA
14 BC BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUTHERN INTERIOR
15 BC CHILLIWACK-FRASER CANYON
16 BC ABBOTSFORD
17 BC OKANOGAN-COQUIHALLA
18 BC VANCOUVER EAST
19 BC LANGLEY
20 AB CALGARY-NOSE HILL
21 AB CALGARY NORTHEAST
22 AB CALGARY WEST
23 AB CALGARY SOUTHWEST
24 AB CALGARY SOUTHEAST
25 AB CALGARY EAST
26 AB CALGARY CENTRE
27 AB CALGARY CENTRE-NORTH
28 AB EDMONTON-LEDUC
29 AB EDMONTON-SPRUCE GROVE
30 AB EDMONTON-ST.ALBERT
31 AB EDMONTON-SHERWOOD PARK
32 AB PEACE RIVER
33 AB FORT McMURRAY-ATHABASCA
34 AB YELLOWHEAD
35 AB WESTLOCK-ST.PAUL
36 AB VEGREVILLE-WAINWRIGHT
37 AB CROWFOOT
38 AB WETASKIWIN
39 AB RED DEER
40 AB WILD ROSE
41 AB MACLEOD
42 AB LETHBRIDGE
43 AB MEDICINE HAT
44 SK CYPRESS HILLS-GRASSLANDS
45 SK SOURIS-MOOSE MOUNTAIN
46 SK YORKTON-MELVILLE
47 SK SASKATOON-ROSETOWN-BIGGAR
48 SK BATTLEFORDS-LLOYDMINSTER
49 MB WINNIPEG NORTH
50 MB ELMWOOD-TRANSCONA
51 MB WINNIPEG CENTRE
52 MB SELKIRK-INTERLAKE
53 MB DAUPHIN-SWAN RIVER-MARQUETTE
54 MB BRANDON-SOURIS
55 MB PORTAGE-LISGAR
56 MB PROVENCHER
57 QC LAURIER-SAINTE MARIE
58 QC ROSEMONT-LA PETITE PATRIE
59 QC HOCHELAGA
60 QC LA POINTE DE L’ILE
61 QC MARC-AURELE-FORTIN
62 QC RIVIERE-DES-MILLE-ILES
63 QC ARGENTEUIL-PAPINEAU-MIRABEL
64 QC TERREBONNNE-BLAINVILLE
65 QC MONTCALM
66 QC REPENTIGNY
67 QC LONGUEUIL-PIERRE BOUCHER
68 QC BEAUHARNOIS-SALABERRY
69 QC CHATEAUGUAY-SAINT CONSTANT
70 QC SAINT JEAN
71 QC CHAMBLY-BORDUAS
72 QC SAINT BRUNO-SAINT HUBERT
73 QC SAINT-HYACINTHE-BAGOT
74 QC VERCHERES-LES PATRIOTES
75 QC MANICOUAGAN
76 QC ABITIBI-TEMISCAMINGUE
77 QC LAURENTIDES-LABELLE
78 QC RIVIERE-DU-NORD
79 QC JOLIETTE
80 QC BERTHIER-MASKINONGE
81 QC TROIS-RIVIERES
82 QC SAINT MAURICE-CHAMPLAIN
83 QC ROBERTVAL-LAC SAINT JEAN
84 QC JONQUIERE-ALMA
85 QC MONTMAGNY-KAMOURASKA-RIVIERE DU LOUP
86 QC MONTMORENCY-CHARLEVOIX-HAUTE C0TE NORD
87 QC LEVIS-BELLECHASSE
88 QC PORTNEUF-JACQUES CARTIER
89 QC CHARLESBOURG-HAUTE-SAINT-CHARLES
90 QC LOUIS-SAINT-LAURENT
91 QC BEAUPORT-LIMOILOU
92 QC QUEBEC
93 QC GASPESIE-ILES-DE-LA-MADELEINE
94 QC HAUTE-GASPESIE-LA MITIS-MATANE-MATAPEDIA
95 QC RIMOUSKI-NEIGETTE-TEMISCOUATA-LES BASQUES
96 QC SHERBROOKE
97 QC DRUMMOND
98 QC RICHMOND-ARTHABASKA
99 QC BAS-RICHELIEU-NICOLET-BECANCOUR
100 QC LOTBINIERE-CHUTES-DE-LA-CHAUDIERE

I’ve gone through the last 8 months worth of forecast that I have done and classified each riding in terms of where the NDP should spend its time and resources (from category 1 = battlegrounds, where most resources should go, to category 5 = no chance, where few resources should go). Obviously not everyone will agree with all of these, but this is based on looking at the best- and worst- cases for the NDP over the past 8 months and represents my best-guess.

REALISTIC BEST-CASE = 58 SEATS
REALISTIC MEDIUM-CASE = 34 SEATS
REALISTIC WORST-CASE = 10 SEATS

[Category 4] GUARANTEED WIN = 6
[Category 2] CLOSE BUT LIKELY TO WIN = 4
—> BOTTOM LINE = 10
[Category 1] BATTLEGROUND RIDINGS = 48
—> IF EVERYTHING FALLS THEIR WAY = 58
[Category 3] CLOSE BUT UNLIKELY TO WIN = 21
—> IF THE LPC/CPC CRASH & BURN = 79
[Category 5] NO CHANCE = 229

CATEGORY 1 – BATTLEGROUND RIDINGS
1 ON NICKEL BELT
2 ON SUDBURY
3 ON ALGOMA-MANITOULIN-KAPUSKASING
4 ON SAULT STE. MARIE
5 ON KENORA
6 ON THUNDER BAY-RAINY RIVER
7 ON THUNDER BAY-SUPERIOR NORTH
8 ON TIMMINS-JAMES BAY
9 ON OTTAWA CENTRE
10 ON ESSEX
11 ON LONDON-FANSHAWE
12 ON BRANT
13 ON HAMILTON CENTRE
14 ON HAMILTON EAST-STONEY CREEK
15 ON HAMILTON MOUNTAIN
16 ON WELLAND
17 ON OSHAWA
18 ON TRINITY-SPADINA
19 ON DAVENPORT
20 ON PARKDALE-HIGH PARK
21 ON TORONTO-DANFORTH
22 ON BEACHES-EAST YORK
23 NS DARTMOUTH-COLE HARBOUR
24 NS HALIFAX
25 BC VICTORIA
26 BC ESQUIMALT-JUAN DE FUCA
27 BC SAANICH-GULF ISLANDS
28 BC NANAIMO-ALBERNI
29 BC VANCOUVER ISLAND NORTH
30 BC KAMLOOPS-THOMPSON-CARIBOO
31 BC BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUTHERN INTERIOR
32 BC PITT MEADOWS-MAPLE RIDGE-MISSION
33 BC VANCOUVER CENTRE
34 BC BURNABY-DOUGLAS
35 BC VANCOUVER KINGSWAY
36 BC NEW WESTMINSTER-COQUITLAM
37 BC BURNABY-NEW WESTMINSTER
38 BC SURREY NORTH
39 BC PORT MOODY-WESTWOOD-PORT COQUITLAM
40 BC NEWTON-NORTH DELTA
41 BC FLEETWOOD-PORT KELLS
42 SK PALLISER
43 SK REGINA-QU’APPELLE
44 SK REGINA-LUMSDEN-LAKE CENTRE
45 SK SASKATOON-ROSETOWN-BIGGAR
46 MB CHURCHILL
47 YT YUKON
48 NT WESTERN ARTIC

CATEGORY 2 – CLOSE BUT LIKELY TO WIN
1 ON WINDSOR WEST
2 ON WINDSOR TECUMSEH
3 BC NANAIMO-COWICHAN
4 BC SKEENA-BULKLEY VALLEY

CATEGORY 3 – CLOSE BUT NOT LIKELY
1 ON PETERBOROUGH
2 ON CAMBRIDGE
3 ON LONDON NORTH CENTRE
4 ON ANCASTER-DUNDAS-FLAMB.-WESTDALE
5 ON NIAGARA WEST-GLANBROOK
6 ON NIAGARA FALLS
7 ON ST. CATHARINES
8 NS HALIFAX WEST
9 NS SOUTH SHORE-ST.MARGARET’S
10 NB MADAWASKA-RESTIGOUCHE
11 NL RANDOM-BURIN-ST.GEORGE’S
12 BC CARIBOO-PRINCE GEORGE
13 BC OKANOGAN-SHUSWAP
14 BC OKANOGAN-COQUIHALLA
15 AB EDMONTON-STRATHCONA
16 SK BLACKSTRAP
17 SK SASKATOON-HUMBOLDT
18 SK PRINCE ALBERT
19 MB KILDONAN-ST.PAUL
20 MB SELKIRK-INTERLAKE
21 QC OUTREMONT

CATEGORY 4 – GUARANTEED SEATS
1 NS SACKVILLE-EASTERN SHORE
2 NB ACADIE-BATHURST
3 BC VANCOUVER EAST
4 MB WINNIPEG NORTH
5 MB ELMWOOD-TRANSCONA
6 MB WINNIPEG CENTRE

CATEGORY 5 – NO CHANCE
1 ON NIPISSING-TIMISKAMING
2 ON PARRY SOUND-MUSKOKA
3 ON OTTAWA-VANIER
4 ON OTTAWA SOUTH
5 ON OTTAWA-ORLEANS
6 ON NEPEAN-CARLETON
7 ON OTTAWA WEST-NEPEAN
8 ON GLENGARRY-PRESCOTT-RUSSELL
9 ON STORMONT-DUNDAS-SOUTH GLENGARRY
10 ON LEEDS-GRENVILLE
11 ON CARLETON–MISSISSIPPI MILLS
12 ON LANARK-FRONTENAC-LENNOX & ADDINGTON
13 ON RENFREW-NIPISSING-PEMBROKE
14 ON KINGSTON & THE ISLANDS
15 ON PRINCE EDWARD HASTINGS
16 ON NORTHUMBERLAND-QUINTE WEST
17 ON HALIBURTON-KAWARTHA L-BROCK
18 ON DURHAM
19 ON GUELPH
20 ON WELLINGTON-HALTON HILLS
21 ON KITCHENER-WATERLOO
22 ON KITCHENER CENTRE
23 ON KITCHENER–CONESTOGA
24 ON BRUCE–GREY–OWEN SOUND
25 ON PERTH-WELLINGTON
26 ON HURON-BRUCE
27 ON SARNIA-LAMBTON
28 ON LAMBTON–KENT–MIDDLESEX
29 ON CHATHAM-KENT-ESSEX
30 ON LONDON WEST
31 ON ELGIN-MIDDLESEX-LONDON
32 ON HALDIMAND-NORFOLK
33 ON OXFORD
34 ON HALTON
35 ON BURLINGTON
36 ON OAKVILLE
37 ON SIMCOE NORTH
38 ON SIMCOE-GREY
39 ON BARRIE
40 ON AJAX-PICKERING
41 ON YORK-SIMCOE
42 ON OAK RIDGES-MARKHAM
43 ON NEWMARKET-AURORA
44 ON MISSISSAUGA-STREETSVILLE
45 ON MISSISSAUGA-ERINDALE
46 ON MISSISSAUGA SOUTH
47 ON MISSISSAUGA-BRAMPTON SOUTH
48 ON MISSISSAUGA EAST-COOKSVILLE
49 ON BRAMPTON WEST
50 ON VAUGHN
51 ON RICHMOND HILL
52 ON MARKHAM-UNIONDALE
53 ON DUFFERIN-CALEDON
54 ON BRAMALEA-GORE-MALTON
55 ON BRAMPTON-SPRINGDALE
56 ON ETOBICOKE NORTH
57 ON ETOBICOKE CENTRE
58 ON ETOBICOKE-LAKESHORE
59 ON THORNHILL
60 ON YORK CENTRE
61 ON YORK WEST
62 ON ST. PAUL’S
63 ON EGLINTON-LAWRENCE
64 ON YORK SOUTH-WESTON
65 ON PICKERING-SCARBOROUGH EAST
66 ON SCARBOROUGH-GUILDWOOD
67 ON SCARBOROUGH-ROUGE RIVER
68 ON SCARBOROUGH-AGINCOURT
69 ON SCARBOROUGH CENTRE
70 ON TORONTO CENTRE
71 ON DON VALLEY EAST
72 ON DON VALLEY WEST
73 ON WILLOWDALE
74 ON SCARBOROUGH SOUTHWEST
75 ON WHITBY-OSHAWA
76 NS SYDNEY-VICTORIA
77 NS CAPE BRETON-CANSO
78 NS CENTRAL NOVA
79 NS CUMBERLAND-COLCHESTER-MUSQUODOBOIT VALLEY
80 NS WEST NOVA
81 NS KINGS-HANTS
82 NB TOBIQUE-MACTAQUAC
83 NB MIRAMICHI
84 NB BEAUSEJOUR
85 NB MONCTON-RIVERVIEW-DIEPPE
86 NB FUNDY ROYAL
87 NB FREDERICTON
88 NB NEW BRUNSWICK SOUTHWEST
89 NB SAINT JOHN
90 NL LABRADOR
91 NL HUMBER-ST.BARBE-BAIE VERTE
92 NL BONAVISTA–GANDER–GRAND FALLS–WINDSOR
93 NL ST. JOHN’S EAST
94 NL ST. JOHN’S SOUTH–MOUNT PEARL
95 NL AVALON
96 PE CARDIGAN
97 PE CHARLOTTETOWN
98 PE EGMONT
99 PE MALPEQUE
100 BC WEST VANCOUVER–SUNSHINE COAST–SEA TO SKY COUNTRY
101 BC PRINCE GEORGE-PEACE RIVER
102 BC KOOTENAY-COLUMBIA
103 BC KELOWNA-LAKE COUNTRY
104 BC CHILLIWACK-FRASER CANYON
105 BC ABBOTSFORD
106 BC VANCOUVER QUADRA
107 BC VANCOUVER SOUTH
108 BC NORTH VANCOUVER
109 BC RICHMOND
110 BC DELTA-RICHMOND EAST
111 BC SOUTH SURREY-WHITE ROCK-CLOVERDALE
112 BC LANGLEY
113 AB CALGARY-NOSE HILL
114 AB CALGARY NORTHEAST
115 AB CALGARY WEST
116 AB CALGARY SOUTHWEST
117 AB CALGARY SOUTHEAST
118 AB CALGARY EAST
119 AB CALGARY CENTRE
120 AB CALGARY CENTRE-NORTH
121 AB EDMONTON-MILL WOODS-BEAUMONT
122 AB EDMONTON-LEDUC
123 AB EDMONTON-SPRUCE GROVE
124 AB EDMONTON-ST.ALBERT
125 AB EDMONTON-SHERWOOD PARK
126 AB EDMONTON CENTRE
127 AB EDMONTON EAST
128 AB PEACE RIVER
129 AB FORT McMURRAY-ATHABASCA
130 AB YELLOWHEAD
131 AB WESTLOCK-ST.PAUL
132 AB VEGREVILLE-WAINWRIGHT
133 AB CROWFOOT
134 AB WETASKIWIN
135 AB RED DEER
136 AB WILD ROSE
137 AB MACLEOD
138 AB LETHBRIDGE
139 AB MEDICINE HAT
140 SK CYPRESS HILLS-GRASSLANDS
141 SK SOURIS-MOOSE MOUNTAIN
142 SK WASCANA
143 SK YORKTON-MELVILLE
144 SK SASKATOON-WANUSKEWIN
145 SK BATTLEFORDS-LLOYDMINSTER
146 SK DESNETHE-MISSINIPPI-CHURCHILL RIVER
147 MB CHARLESWOOD-ST.JAMES-ASSINIBOIA
148 MB WINNIPEG SOUTH
149 MB SAINT BONIFACE
150 MB WINNIPEG SOUTH CENTRE
151 MB DAUPHIN-SWAN RIVER-MARQUETTE
152 MB BRANDON-SOURIS
153 MB PORTAGE-LISGAR
154 MB PROVENCHER
155 QC LAC SAINT-LOUIS
156 QC PIERREFONDS-DOLLARD
157 QC NOTRE-DAME-DE-GRACE-LACHINE
158 QC SAINT LAURENT-CARTIERVILLE
159 QC MONT-ROYAL
160 QC LASALLE-EMARD
161 QC JEANNE-LE BER
162 QC WESTMOUNT-VILLE MARIE
163 QC LAURIER-SAINTE MARIE
164 QC ROSEMONT-LA PETITE PATRIE
165 QC HOCHELAGA
166 QC AHUNTSIC
167 QC PAPINEAU
168 QC SAINT LEONARD-SAINT MICHEL
169 QC BOURASSA
170 QC HONORE-MERCIER
171 QC LA POINTE DE L’ILE
172 QC LAVAL-LES ILES
173 QC LAVAL
174 QC ALFRED-PELLAN
175 QC MARC-AURELE-FORTIN
176 QC RIVIERE-DES-MILLE-ILES
177 QC ARGENTEUIL-PAPINEAU-MIRABEL
178 QC TERREBONNNE-BLAINVILLE
179 QC MONTCALM
180 QC REPENTIGNY
181 QC SAINT LAMBERT
182 QC LONGUEUIL-PIERRE BOUCHER
183 QC BROSSARD-LA PRAIRIE
184 QC VAUDREUIL-SOULANGES
185 QC BEAUHARNOIS-SALABERRY
186 QC CHATEAUGUAY-SAINT CONSTANT
187 QC SAINT JEAN
188 QC CHAMBLY-BORDUAS
189 QC SAINT BRUNO-SAINT HUBERT
190 QC SHEFFORD
191 QC SAINT-HYACINTHE-BAGOT
192 QC VERCHERES-LES PATRIOTES
193 QC ABITIBI-BAIE JAMES-NUNAVIK-EEYOU
194 QC MANICOUAGAN
195 QC ABITIBI-TEMISCAMINGUE
196 QC PONTIAC
197 QC HULL-AYLMER
198 QC GATINEAU
199 QC LAURENTIDES-LABELLE
200 QC RIVIERE-DU-NORD
201 QC JOLIETTE
202 QC BERTHIER-MASKINONGE
203 QC TROIS-RIVIERES
204 QC SAINT MAURICE-CHAMPLAIN
205 QC CHICOUTIMI-LE FJORD
206 QC ROBERTVAL-LAC SAINT JEAN
207 QC JONQUIERE-ALMA
208 QC MONTMAGNY-KAMOURASKA-RIVIERE DU LOUP
209 QC MONTMORENCY-CHARLEVOIX-HAUTE C0TE NORD
210 QC LEVIS-BELLECHASSE
211 QC PORTNEUF-JACQUES CARTIER
212 QC CHARLESBOURG-HAUTE-SAINT-CHARLES
213 QC LOUIS-SAINT-LAURENT
214 QC BEAUPORT-LIMOILOU
215 QC LOUIS-HEBERT
216 QC QUEBEC
217 QC GASPESIE-ILES-DE-LA-MADELEINE
218 QC HAUTE-GASPESIE-LA MITIS-MATANE-MATAPEDIA
219 QC RIMOUSKI-NEIGETTE-TEMISCOUATA-LES BASQUES
220 QC BROME-MISSISQUOI
221 QC COMPTON-STANSTEAD
222 QC SHERBROOKE
223 QC DRUMMOND
224 QC RICHMOND-ARTHABASKA
225 QC BAS-RICHELIEU-NICOLET-BECANCOUR
226 QC MEGANTIC-L’ERABLE
227 QC LOTBINIERE-CHUTES-DE-LA-CHAUDIERE
228 QC BEAUCE
229 NU NUNAVUT

I’ve gone through the last 8 months worth of forecast that I have done and classified each riding in terms of where the CPC should spend its time and resources (from category 1 = battlegrounds, where most resources should go, to category 5 = no chance, where few resources should go). Obviously not everyone will agree with all of these, but this is based on looking at the best- and worst- cases for the CPC over the past 8 months and represents my best-guess.

REALISTIC BEST-CASE = 126 SEATS
REALISTIC MEDIUM-CASE = 96 SEATS
REALISTIC WORST-CASE = 65 SEATS

[Category 4] GUARANTEED WIN = 48
[Category 2] CLOSE BUT LIKELY TO WIN = 17
—> BOTTOM LINE = 65
[Category 1] BATTLEGROUND RIDINGS = 61
—> IF EVERYTHING FALLS THEIR WAY = 126
[Category 3] CLOSE BUT UNLIKELY TO WIN = 30
—> IF THE LIBERALS CRASH & BURN = 156
[Category 5] NO CHANCE = 152

CATEGORY 1 – BATTLEGROUND RIDINGS
1 ON NIPISSING-TIMISKASING
2 ON PARRY SOUND-MUSKOKA
3 ON OTTAWA WEST-NEPEAN
4 ON OTTAWA SOUTH
5 ON OTTAWA-ORLEANS
6 ON NEPEAN-CARLETON
7 ON GLENGARRY-PRESCOTT-RUSSELL
8 ON NORTHUMBERLAND-QUITE WEST
9 ON PETERBOROUGH
10 ON DURHAM
11 ON WELLINGTON-HALTON HILLS
12 ON CAMBRIDGE
13 ON ESSEX
14 ON LAMBTON-KENT-MIDDLESEX
15 ON CHATHAM-KENT-ESSEX
16 ON HALDIMAND-NORFOLK
17 ON BRANT
18 ON ANCASTER-DUNDAS-FLAMBOROUGH-WESTDALE
19 ON NIAGARA WEST-GLANBROOK
20 ON NIAGARA FALLS
21 ON SIMCOE NORTH
22 ON SIMCOE-GREY
23 ON BARRIE
24 ON OSHAWA
25 ON WHITBY-OSHAWA
26 ON NEWMARKET-AURORA
27 ON PRINCE EDWARD HASTINGS
28 ON HALIBURTON-KAWARTHA LAKES-BROCK
29 ON KITCHENER–CONESTOGA
30 ON ST. CATHARINES
31 NS WEST NOVA
32 NS KINGS-HANTS
33 NS SOUTH SHORE-ST.MARGARET’S
34 NB TOBIQUE-MACTAQUAC
35 NL BONAVISTA–GANDER–GRAND FALLS–WINDSOR
36 NL AVALON
37 BC SAANICH-GULF ISLANDS
38 BC NANAIMO-ALBERNI
39 BC VANCOUVER ISLAND NORTH
40 BC KAMLOOPS-THOMPSON-CARIBOO
41 BC OKANOGAN-SHUSWAP
42 BC BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUTHERN INTERIOR
43 BC PITT MEADOWS-MAPLE RIDGE-MISSION
44 BC NEW WESTMINSTER-COQUITLAM
45 BC WEST VANCOUVER–SUNSHINE COAST–SEA TO SKY COUNTRY
46 BC PORT MOODY-WESTWOOD-PORT COQUITLAM
47 BC RICHMOND
48 BC DELTA-RICHMOND EAST
49 BC NEWTON-NORTH DELTA
50 BC FLEETWOOD-PORT KELLS
51 BC SOUTH SURREY-WHITE ROCK-CLOVERDALE
52 AB EDMONTON CENTRE
53 SK PALLISER
54 SK REGINA-QU’APPELLE
55 SK REGINA-LUMSDEN-LAKE CENTRE
56 SK SASKATOON-ROSETOWN-BIGGAR
57 SK DESNETHE-MISSINIPPI-CHURCHILL RIVER
58 MB KILDONAN-ST.PAUL
59 MB CHARLESWOOD-ST.JAMES-ASSINIBOIA
60 QC PONTIAC
61 QC LOUIS-SAINT-LAURENT

CATEGORY 2 – CLOSE BUT LIKELY TO WIN
1 ON BRUCE–GREY–OWEN SOUND
2 ON DUFFERIN-CALEDON
3 ON PERTH-WELLINGTON
4 ON ELGIN-MIDDLESEX-LONDON
5 ON YORK-SIMCOE
6 NB FUNDY ROYAL
7 NL ST. JOHN’S EAST
8 NL ST. JOHN’S SOUTH–MOUNT PEARL
9 BC CARIBOO-PRINCE GEORGE
10 BC KELOWNA-LAKE COUNTRY
11 AB EDMONTON-MILL WOODS-BEAUMONT
12 AB EDMONTON-STRATHCONA
13 AB EDMONTON EAST
14 SK BLACKSTRAP
15 SK SASKATOON-HUMBOLDT
16 SK SASKATOON-WANUSKEWIN
17 MB SELKIRK-INTERLAKE

CATEGORY 3 – CLOSE BUT NOT LIKELY TO WIN
1 ON KENORA
2 ON WINDSOR WEST
3 ON WINDSOR TECUMSEH
4 ON SARNIA-LAMBTON
5 ON WELLAND
6 ON HALTON
7 ON BURLINGTON
8 ON MISSISSAUGA-ERINDALE
9 ON BRAMPTON WEST
10 ON AJAX-PICKERING
11 ON HAMILTON MOUNTAIN
12 ON MISSISSAUGA SOUTH
13 ON OAKVILLE
14 ON THUNDER BAY-RAINY RIVER
15 ON LONDON-FANSHAWE
16 ON LONDON WEST
17 ON LONDON NORTH CENTRE
18 NB SAINT JOHN
19 NB MADAWASKA-RESTIGOUCHE
20 NB MIRAMICHI
21 NB FREDERICTON
22 NL LABRADOR
23 BC ESQUIMALT-JUAN DE FUCA
24 BC NANAIMO-COWICHAN
25 BC SKEENA-BULKLEY VALLEY
26 BC BURNABY-DOUGLAS
27 BC BURNABY-NEW WESTMINSTER
28 BC SURREY NORTH
29 BC NORTH VANCOUVER
30 MB SAINT BONIFACE

CATEGORY 4 – GUARANTEED SEATS
1 ON STORMONT-DUNDAS-SOUTH GLENGARRY
2 ON LEEDS-GRENVILLE
3 ON CARLETON–MISSISSIPPI MILLS
4 ON LANARK-FRONTENAC-LENNOX & ADDINGTON
5 ON RENFREW-NIPISSING-PEMBROKE
6 ON OXFORD
7 NS CENTRAL NOVA
8 NS CUMBERLAND-COLCHESTER-MUSQUODOBOIT VALLEY
9 NB NEW BRUNSWICK SOUTHWEST
10 BC PRINCE GEORGE-PEACE RIVER
11 BC KOOTENAY-COLUMBIA
12 BC OKANOGAN-COQUIHALLA
13 BC CHILLIWACK-FRASER CANYON
14 BC ABBOTSFORD
15 BC LANGLEY
16 AB CALGARY-NOSE HILL
17 AB CALGARY NORTHEAST
18 AB CALGARY WEST
19 AB CALGARY SOUTHWEST
20 AB CALGARY SOUTHEAST
21 AB CALGARY EAST
22 AB CALGARY CENTRE
23 AB CALGARY CENTRE-NORTH
24 AB EDMONTON-LEDUC
25 AB EDMONTON-SPRUCE GROVE
26 AB EDMONTON-ST.ALBERT
27 AB EDMONTON-SHERWOOD PARK
28 AB PEACE RIVER
29 AB FORT McMURRAY-ATHABASCA
30 AB YELLOWHEAD
31 AB WESTLOCK-ST.PAUL
32 AB VEGREVILLE-WAINWRIGHT
33 AB CROWFOOT
34 AB WETASKIWIN
35 AB RED DEER
36 AB WILD ROSE
37 AB MACLEOD
38 AB LETHBRIDGE
39 AB MEDICINE HAT
40 SK CYPRESS HILLS-GRASSLANDS
41 SK SOURIS-MOOSE MOUNTAIN
42 SK YORKTON-MELVILLE
43 SK BATTLEFORDS-LLOYDMINSTER
44 SK PRINCE ALBERT
45 MB DAUPHIN-SWAN RIVER-MARQUETTE
46 MB BRANDON-SOURIS
47 MB PORTAGE-LISGAR
48 MB PROVENCHER

CATEGORY 5 – NO CHANCE
1 ON NICKEL BELT
2 ON SUDBURY
3 ON ALGOMA-MANITOULIN-KAPUSKASING
4 ON SAULT STE. MARIE
5 ON TIMMINS-JAMES BAY
6 ON OTTAWA CENTRE
7 ON OTTAWA-VANIER
8 ON KINGSTON & THE ISLANDS
9 ON GUELPH
10 ON KITCHENER-WATERLOO
11 ON KITCHENER CENTRE
12 ON HURON-BRUCE
13 ON HAMILTON CENTRE
14 ON HAMILTON EAST-STONEY CREEK
15 ON OAK RIDGES-MARKHAM
16 ON MISSISSAUGA-STREETSVILLE
17 ON MISSISSAUGA-BRAMPTON SOUTH
18 ON MISSISSAUGA EAST-COOKSVILLE
19 ON VAUGHN
20 ON RICHMOND HILL
21 ON MARKHAM-UNIONDALE
22 ON BRAMALEA-GORE-MALTON
23 ON BRAMPTON-SPRINGDALE
24 ON ETOBICOKE NORTH
25 ON ETOBICOKE CENTRE
26 ON ETOBICOKE-LAKESHORE
27 ON TRINITY-SPADINA
28 ON DAVENPORT
29 ON PARKDALE-HIGH PARK
30 ON THORNHILL
31 ON YORK CENTRE
32 ON YORK WEST
33 ON ST. PAUL’S
34 ON EGLINTON-LAWRENCE
35 ON YORK SOUTH-WESTON
36 ON PICKERING-SCARBOROUGH EAST
37 ON SCARBOROUGH-GUILDWOOD
38 ON SCARBOROUGH-ROUGE RIVER
39 ON SCARBOROUGH-AGINCOURT
40 ON SCARBOROUGH CENTRE
41 ON SCARBOROUGH SOUTHWEST
42 ON TORONTO-DANFORTH
43 ON BEACHES-EAST YORK
44 ON TORONTO CENTRE
45 ON DON VALLEY EAST
46 ON DON VALLEY WEST
47 ON WILLOWDALE
48 ON THUNDER BAY-SUPERIOR NORTH
49 NS SYDNEY-VICTORIA
50 NS CAPE BRETON-CANSO
51 NS DARTMOUTH-COLE HARBOUR
52 NS HALIFAX
53 NS SACKVILLE-EASTERN SHORE
54 NS HALIFAX WEST
55 NB ACADIE-BATHURST
56 NB BEAUSEJOUR
57 NB MONCTON-RIVERVIEW-DIEPPE
58 NL HUMBER-ST.BARBE-BAIE VERTE
59 NL RANDOM-BURIN-ST.GEORGE’S
60 PE CARDIGAN
61 PE CHARLOTTETOWN
62 PE EGMONT
63 PE MALPEQUE
64 BC VICTORIA
65 BC VANCOUVER CENTRE
66 BC VANCOUVER EAST
67 BC VANCOUVER QUADRA
68 BC VANCOUVER KINGSWAY
69 BC VANCOUVER SOUTH
70 SK WASCANA
71 MB WINNIPEG NORTH
72 MB ELMWOOD-TRANSCONA
73 MB WINNIPEG SOUTH
74 MB WINNIPEG CENTRE
75 MB WINNIPEG SOUTH CENTRE
76 MB CHURCHILL
77 QC LAC SAINT-LOUIS
78 QC PIERREFONDS-DOLLARD
79 QC NOTRE-DAME-DE-GRACE-LACHINE
80 QC SAINT LAURENT-CARTIERVILLE
81 QC MONT-ROYAL
82 QC OUTREMONT
83 QC LASALLE-EMARD
84 QC JEANNE-LE BER
85 QC WESTMOUNT-VILLE MARIE
86 QC LAURIER-SAINTE MARIE
87 QC ROSEMONT-LA PETITE PATRIE
88 QC HOCHELAGA
89 QC AHUNTSIC
90 QC PAPINEAU
91 QC SAINT LEONARD-SAINT MICHEL
92 QC BOURASSA
93 QC HONORE-MERCIER
94 QC LA POINTE DE L’ILE
95 QC LAVAL-LES ILES
96 QC LAVAL
97 QC ALFRED-PELLAN
98 QC MARC-AURELE-FORTIN
99 QC RIVIERE-DES-MILLE-ILES
100 QC ARGENTEUIL-PAPINEAU-MIRABEL
101 QC TERREBONNNE-BLAINVILLE
102 QC MONTCALM
103 QC REPENTIGNY
104 QC SAINT LAMBERT
105 QC LONGUEUIL-PIERRE BOUCHER
106 QC BROSSARD-LA PRAIRIE
107 QC VAUDREUIL-SOULANGES
108 QC BEAUHARNOIS-SALABERRY
109 QC CHATEAUGUAY-SAINT CONSTANT
110 QC SAINT JEAN
111 QC CHAMBLY-BORDUAS
112 QC SAINT BRUNO-SAINT HUBERT
113 QC SHEFFORD
114 QC SAINT-HYACINTHE-BAGOT
115 QC VERCHERES-LES PATRIOTES
116 QC ABITIBI-BAIE JAMES-NUNAVIK-EEYOU
117 QC MANICOUAGAN
118 QC ABITIBI-TEMISCAMINGUE
119 QC HULL-AYLMER
120 QC GATINEAU
121 QC LAURENTIDES-LABELLE
122 QC RIVIERE-DU-NORD
123 QC JOLIETTE
124 QC BERTHIER-MASKINONGE
125 QC TROIS-RIVIERES
126 QC SAINT MAURICE-CHAMPLAIN
127 QC CHICOUTIMI-LE FJORD
128 QC ROBERTVAL-LAC SAINT JEAN
129 QC JONQUIERE-ALMA
130 QC MONTMAGNY-KAMOURASKA-RIVIERE DU LOUP
131 QC MONTMORENCY-CHARLEVOIX-HAUTE C0TE NORD
132 QC LEVIS-BELLECHASSE
133 QC PORTNEUF-JACQUES CARTIER
134 QC CHARLESBOURG-HAUTE-SAINT-CHARLES
135 QC BEAUPORT-LIMOILOU
136 QC LOUIS-HEBERT
137 QC QUEBEC
138 QC GASPESIE-ILES-DE-LA-MADELEINE
139 QC HAUTE-GASPESIE-LA MITIS-MATANE-MATAPEDIA
140 QC RIMOUSKI-NEIGETTE-TEMISCOUATA-LES BASQUES
141 QC BROME-MISSISQUOI
142 QC COMPTON-STANSTEAD
143 QC SHERBROOKE
144 QC DRUMMOND
145 QC RICHMOND-ARTHABASKA
146 QC BAS-RICHELIEU-NICOLET-BECANCOUR
147 QC MEGANTIC-L’ERABLE
148 QC LOTBINIERE-CHUTES-DE-LA-CHAUDIERE
149 QC BEAUCE
150 NU NUNAVUT
151 YT YUKON
152 NT WESTERN ARTIC

Another comprehensive poll came out yesterday by EKOS [Note: this is a 384kb PDF] (Ipsos-Reid also did a poll, but no regional breakdown was released, so I cannot run the projections for it). Adding the EKOS poll to my 5-poll rolling average yields a slight increase for the Liberals. The EKOS poll is suspiciously high for the Liberals, has several anomalous results in several regions and has a small sample size. So treat with caution. The CURRENT totals are as follows. The last 5-poll rolling average ending with the Nov 26 EKOS poll shows a slim lead for the Liberals (LPC+NDP=155, CPC+BQ=153):

	2005 PREDICTED RESULTS – 10-26 Nov 05
	LPC	CPC	NDP	GRN	BQ	OTH
TOTAL SEATS	120	91	35	0	62	0
% OF SEATS	39%	30%	11%	0%	20%	0%

The above numbers correspond to the following 5-poll averages (change from 2004 election in parethesis):

NATIONAL
LPC 34.6% (-2.1%)
CPC 27.4% (-2.2%)
NDP 19.6% (+3.6%)
BQ 12.6% (+0.2%)
GPC 4.8% (+0.5%)
OTH 1.0% (-0.4%)

ONTARIO
LPC 42.0% (-2.7%)
CPC 30.2% (-1.3%)
NDP 21.2% (+3.1%)
GPC 5.6% (+1.1%)
OTH 1.0% (-0.3%)

QUEBEC
BQ 50.8% (+1.9%)
LPC 27.0% (-6.9%)
NDP 9.2% (+4.6%)
CPC 8.2% (-0.6%)
GPC 3.8% (+0.6%)
OTH 1.0% (+0.3%)

BRITISH COLUMBIA
LPC 34.6% (+6.0%)
NDP 32.6% (+6.1%)
CPC 24.0% (-12.3%)
GPC 8.2% (+1.9%)
OTH 0.6% (-1.9%)

ALBERTA
CPC 58.8% (-2.8%)
LPC 22.2% (+0.2%)
NDP 14.6% (+5.0%)
GPC 3.4% (-2.8%)
OTH 1.0% (+0.6%)

SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA
CPC 38.2% (-2.3%)
NDP 28.6% (+5.1%)
LPC 27.6% (-2.1%)
GPC 5.4% (+2.7%)
OTH 0.2% (-0.7%)

ATLANTIC CANADA
LPC 43.8% (-2.4%)
CPC 32.0% (+1.5%)
NDP 19.8% (0)
GPC 3.4% (+0.3%)
OTH 1.0% (+0.6%)

How to Unseat the Liberals: A How-To Guide for the NDP and Conservatives
By Gregory D. Morrow

The Liberals are extraordinarily effective at what they do. They use a classic “divide-and-conquer” strategy to bring moderate Rights and moderate Lefts into the fold. In every election since 1993, they have succeeded in portraying the Conservatives/Alliance/ Reformers as rabidly right-wing (i.e. they would reverse social progress and turn Canada into a mini U.S.A.) and the NDP as rabidly left-wing (i.e. they would return Canada to deficit spending and ignore the importance of economic growth). This campaign strategy has relied on drawing artificially stark contrasts between the Liberals and the other two major parties. It has also relied on the Conservatives and NDP operating independently, if not downright antagonistic, towards one another.

But what would happen if the Conservatives and NDP agreed to play nice — not in any official capacity, of course — but just agreed not to paint each other as dangerous to the nation? The fact is, there is a symbiotic relationship between the Conservative and NDP seat tallies. It is patently obvious that the NDP does not have enough support to form the next government. However, they can significantly improve their totals, which will build support for the subsequent election (which may not be too far down the road). The NDP must be willing to tolerate a Conservative government in order to maximize its seat totals – that means convincing its supporters not to shift its vote to the Liberals, even if it means a Conservative government is formed. Likewise, the Conservatives must recognize that demonizing the NDP will only shift moderate Left votes back to the Liberals. Not only must the Conservatives win in ridings where they are battling the Liberals, they must also ensure that the NDP wins in ridings where the Liberals and NDP are rivals.

If the Liberals can paint the Conservatives as socially dangerous — and you know they will try — not only do moderates vote Liberal, but many “soft” NDPers shift their vote to Liberal in order to avoid allowing the Conservatives to win. It happened last year. And it has happened for the last 12 years, a remarkable run of Liberal rule that threatens to continue once again this year if the Conservatives and NDP continue to see one another as arch-enemies.

However, in order for NDPers not to shift their vote back to the Liberals, the Conservatives must abandon the thought of using the Notwithstanding Clause to strip gay marriage rights that have been granted by every Superior Court in the county (except Alberta, P.E.I., Northwest Territories, and Nunavut), and having been confirmed by a nearly-free vote in parliament (Martin’s Cabinet voted for the Bill C-38, but there’s little evidence to suggest it wouldn’t have passed regardless). As late as 2001, Canadians didn’t favour gay marriage. But with a couple years experience with it under our belt, most Canadians have now accepted it and are ready to move on. Harper would be wise to heed that desire. There are bigger fish to fry and Harper should know it.

Jack Layton, for his part, has done a spectacular job in re-branding the NDP as a party that gets things done. Far from the Liberal portrayal of the NDP as a tax-and-spend party, the NDP is now a party that supports balanced budgets, modest debt repayment and using surpluses to reinvest in social programs that, in turn, generate economic growth. Recruiting economists like Paul Summerville only reaffirms the NDP commitment to using economic growth to advance the lives of all Canadians. Conservatives need not be threatened by having more NDPers in parliament. In fact, they need more NDPers in parliament in order to displace the Liberals.

To end Liberal rule, the Conservatives and NDP must recognize they symbiotic relationship. They must unite on a common front and support one another in ridings where they are not competing directly against one another. If Conservatives continue to see NDPers as scary left-wingers, the Liberals will win. If NDPers continue to see Conservatives as scary right-wingers, the Liberals will win. United they win, divided they fall.

Fair Prince Edward Islanders Will Show Us the Way on Democratic Reform
By Gregory D. Morrow

The eyes of a continent will fall upon Prince Edward Island on Monday, as Islanders will choose between endorsing democratic reform or endorsing the status quo. The plebiscite will determine whether to make P.E.I. the first jurisdiction in North America to use a mixed-member proportional system or whether to retain the traditional first-past-the-post system. The choice is for Islanders and for Islanders alone. All of the pundits on both sides will be busy trying to influence opinion in the closing days before the vote. This is unfortunate, for their choice must be made without influence. Whatever the result, we know it will be fair. Islanders are among the most fair in the land. If they vote to retain the status quo, we will know that North America is not ready for electoral reform. If they vote for change, they we will know that its time has come.

My position is well known on the issue – I believe that while the first-past-the-post system has worked well for the modern nation-state, it has had difficulty making the adjustment to a world where opinions aren’t easily forced into two clearly defined political choices. The world of ruling with a majority government — with few checks and balances of power that this privilege entails — is coming to an end. And it is coming to an end regardless of whether we adapt our electoral system to match this reality. It is happening already. After more than decade of Liberal rule, voters across Canada opted to install a minority government in Ottawa. Unaccustomed to compromise — which a mixed-member proportional system necessarily demands — parliamentarians have had a difficult time forgetting petty partisan struggles. They hope instead to go back to the polls and win enough seats so they don’t have to compromise. Yet, all indications are that Canadians are in no hurry to grant any party that honour any time soon. We could very well be entering a period where minority governments are the norm.

Canada is more diverse today than ever before — not only ethnically, but in the wide range of choices on the political spectrum. The NDP offers progressives a moderate option that will strive for fairness and equality of opportunity for all. The Liberals offer centrists a mix of socially progressive and economically laissez-faire policies. The Greens similarly offer socially-conscious people an opportunity to achieve progress by harnessing the market for better social outcomes. Conservatives offer more socially conservative policies combined with more economically laissez-faire policies. The Bloc Quebecois offers Quebeckers a separatist option combined with socially progressive policies.

Within this landscape, there is no sense that we are returning to the two-party (Tory and Grit) system upon which the first-past-the-post was devised. With each new decade, the gap between a party’s vote share and its seat share grows larger, as more options become viable to Canadians. A mixed-member system retains the traditions of our present system – a strong connection between representative and a local region – and an opportunity for a limited number of parties in parliament (thus avoiding the factions seen elsewhere in the world). Yet, it offers Canadians what they demand in all other aspects of their lives — that is, CHOICE. Free of the burden of having to vote for someone you don’t want in order to ensure someone you really don’t want (the lesser of two evils), a mixed-member system strengthens the legitimacy of our democracy. The outcome genuinely reflects the will of the people.

Today, it is a choice for Islanders. It is a choice that the rest of us must not try to influence. Islanders must choose of their own will, free of influence, whether they are ready for change. We can embrace change that builds upon our traditions. Or we can say, “we are not yet ready”, and retain our existing system. The people of Prince Edward Island will tell us whether we are ready or not on 28 November 2005. All eyes are on P.E.I — let them show us the way.

I have made some refinements to my election forecast model. Within each sub-provincial region (Northern Ontario, Eastern Ontario, Southwestern Ontario, etc), I now have constructed a method to differentiate between ridings that perform 1) on average for the sub-region, 2) below average and 3) above average for all 3 major parties (4 for Quebec ridings). This adds another level of refinement. For those interested in the technical details, I am working on a new “How The Model Works” PDF, which I will upload to my main site in the next few days (http://election.democraticSPACE.com). I have also added a ‘CURRENT’ line for the national and provinces webpages on the main site – this reflects the projections using the average of the last 5 comprehensive polls (i.e. those with regional data). This ‘rolling average’ will constitute my current projection for now on. The last 5-poll rolling average ending with the Nov 16 Decima poll shows a slim lead for the Liberals (LPC+NDP=153, CPC+BQ=155):

	2005 PREDICTED RESULTS – 23 Nov 05
	LIB	CPC	NDP	GRN	BQ	OTH
TOTAL SEATS	115	93	38	0	62	0
% OF SEATS	37%	30%	12%	0%	20%	0%