13 Liberal Cabinet Ministers in Election Trouble
By Gregory D. Morrow

With the election just 11 days away, a full one-third of the Liberal cabinet ministers are currently being projected by democraticSPACE to lose their seats. Below is the list of cabinet ministers and the Jan 12 projection (in order from most to least likely to lose their seat):

Pierre Pettigrew, Papineau
Minister of Foreign Affairs
Jan 12 Projection: Lose 42%-20% (margin: -22%) to BQ Vivian Barbot

Aileen Carroll, Barrie
Minister for International Cooperation
Jan 12 Projection: Lose 48%-34% (margin: -14%) to CPC Patrick Brown

Tony Valeri, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
Leader of the Government in the House of Commons
Jan 12 Projection: Lose 36%-23% (margin: -13%) to NDP Wayne Marston

Ethel Blondin-Andrew, Western Arctic
Minister of State (Northern Development)
Jan 12 Projection: Lose 45%-32% (margin: -12%) to NDP Dennis Bevington

Belinda Stronach, Newmarket-Aurora
Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development
Minister Responsible for Democratic Renewal
Jan 12 Projection: Lose 49%-37% (margin: -12%) to CPC Lois Brown

Liza Frulla, Jeanne-Le Ber
Minister of Canadian Heritage
Minister Responsible for the Status of Women
Jan 12 Projection: Lose 41%-29% (margin: -12%) to BQ Thierry St-Cyr

Jean Lapierre, Outremont
Minister of Transport
Jan 12 Projection: Lose 34%-24% (margin: -10%) to BQ Jacques Léonard

Tony Ianno, Trinity-Spadina
Minister of State (Families and Caregivers)
Jan 12 Projection: Lose 43%-34% (margin: -9%) to NDP Olivia Chow

Jacques Saada, Brossard-La Prairie
Minister of the Economic Development Agency of Canada for the Regions of Quebec
Minister Responsible for La Francophonie
Jan 12 Projection: Lose 42%-36% (margin: -6%) to BQ Marcel Lussier

Anne McLennan, Edmonton Centre
Deputy Prime Minister of Canada
Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness
Jan 12 Projection: Lose 43%-39% (margin: -4%) to CPC Laurie Hawn

Scott Brison, Kings-Hants
Minister of Public Works and Government Services
Jan 12 Projection: Lose 42%-39% (margin: -3%) to CPC Bob Mullan

Andy Mitchell, Parry Sound-Muskoka
Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food
Minister of State (Federal Economic Development Initiative for Northern Ontario)
Jan 12 Projection: Lose 42%-40% (margin: -2%) to CPC Tony Clement

Joe Fontana, London North Centre
Minister of Labour and Housing
Jan 12 Projection: Lose 35%-34% (margin: -1%) to CPC John Mazzilli

In addition to the above 13 Cabinet Ministers, 6 others are facing tough battles:

David Emerson, Vancouver-Kingsway
Minister of Industry
Jan 12 Projection: Win 41%-36% (margin: +5%) over NDP Ian Waddell

Raymond Chan, Richmond
Minister of State (Multiculturalism)
Jan 12 Projection: Win 45%-40% (margin: +5%) over CPC Darrel Reid

Reg Alcock, Winnipeg South
President of the Treasury Board
Minister Responsible for the Canadian Wheat Board
Jan 12 Projection: Win 45%-38% (margin: +7%) over CPC Rod Bruinooge

Andy Scott, Fredericton
Minister of Indian Affairs and Northern Development
Federal Interlocutor for Métis and Non-Status Indians
Jan 12 Projection: Win 45%-36% (margin: +9%) over CPC Pat Lynch

Ken Dryden, York Centre
Minister of Social Development
Jan 12 Projection: Win 45%-36% (margin: +9%) over CPC Michael Mostyn

Carolyn Bennett, St. Paul’s
Minister of State (Public Health)
Jan 12 Projection: Win 38%-28% (margin: +10%) over CPC Peter Kent

The remaining 16 Cabinet Ministers appear headed for re-election:

Mauril Bélanger, Ottawa-Vanier
Minister for Internal Trade
Minister Responsible for Official Languages
Deputy Leader of the Government in the House of Commons
Jan 12 Projection: Win 42%-31% (margin: +11%) over CPC Paul Benoit

Albina Guarnieri, Mississauga East-Cooksville
Minister of Veterans Affairs
Jan 12 Projection: Win 45%-34% (margin: +11%) over CPC Carl DeFaria

Paul Martin, Lasalle-Émard
Prime Minister of Canada
Jan 12 Projection: Win 42%-31% (margin: +11%) over BQ May Chiu

Geoff Regan, Halifax West
Minister of Fisheries and Oceans
Jan 12 Projection: Win 40%-28% (margin: +12%) over NDP Alan Hill

Ralph Goodale, Wascana
Minister of Finance
Jan 12 Projection: Win 47%-34% (margin: +13%) over CPC Brad Farquhar

Ujjal Dosanjh, Vancouver South
Minister of Health
Jan 12 Projection: Win 45%-30% (margin: +15%) over CPC Tarlok Sablok

Joe McGuire, Egmont
Minister for the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency
Jan 12 Projection: Win 54%-33% (margin: +21%) over CPC Edward Guergis

Stephen Owen, Vancouver Quadra
Minister of Western Economic Diversification
Minister of State (Sport)
Jan 12 Projection: Win 53%-31% (margin: +22%) over CPC Stephen Rogers

Lucienne Robillard, Westmount-Ville Marie
Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs
Jan 12 Projection: Win 46%-24% (margin: +22%) over CPC Louise O’Sullivan

Joe Volpe, Eglinton-Lawrence
Minister of Citizenship and Immigration
Jan 12 Projection: Win 58%-35% (margin: +23%) over CPC Peter Coy

Bill Graham, Toronto Centre
Minister of National Defence
Jan 12 Projection: Win 55%-24% (margin: +31%) over NDP Michael Shapcott

John McCallum, Markham-Unionville
Minister of National Revenue
Jan 12 Projection: Win 62%-30% (margin: +32%) over CPC Joe Li

Jim Peterson, Willowdale
Minister of International Trade
Jan 12 Projection: Win 60%-25% (margin: +35%) over CPC Jovan Boseovski

Stéphane Dion, St-Laurent-Cartierville
Minister of the Environment
Jan 12 Projection: Win 57%-18% (margin: +39%) over BQ William Fayad

Irwin Cotler, Mont-Royal
Minister of Justice and Attorney General
Jan 12 Projection: Win 66%-22% (margin: +44%) over CPC Neil Drabkin