Your site is very thorough and user-friendly, as well as credible. I believe your predictions will turn out correctly tomorrow. Thanks! that being said, I hope the liberals will not return to office. The PC dserves a chance at providing good and not entitled, corrupt, money-wasting and arrogant government we’ve had for 13 years.

I guess I can live with this. I’d like to see the Greens pick up a seat but I know deep down that they won’t. Media’s fault probably. Anyway, looks balanced enough.

Latest Polling Data

This post has been post dated to January 22 to keep it at the top of the page. Please scroll down for other posts that may be newer. Posted @  10:45pm CST Jan.22 National Poll Results Date Poll Lib CPC…

How many Liberal voters will actually vote though?

A minority government should be an acceptable result for most Canadians. We are so fortunate that we have the British parliamentary system where a middle ground is possible. It is so much more favorable that the highly polarized American system where the President is given carte blanche, even if one out of two Americans (eg. the last two elections), did not make the choice.

Michael Stumpf: You mean the Progressive Canadians? ;D

As an artist/ activist I’m glad to see a site that brings politics and design together. It’s an exciting time for politics in Canada. All majority bets are off and people are seriously re-examining their values and which parties consistently represent them. Once we have proportional representation people will feel more empowered to make a difference during elections which will carry over to greater efficacy (look it up) and direct democracy between elections. Not to mention that the NDP would surge ahead in seats!

There is a real chance that this election could see two governments.
Martin would get the first chance to meet the house if the conservatives get less than a majority. I suspect he will not take it and will choose to resign instead. Harper will govern for a while but likely his government may not last that long and then rather than call an election that could produce a similar result there may be pressure on the GG to allow the Liberals to try to form a government by making some deals of their own even with quite a few seats less than the conservatives. This is still possible even with my prediction that sees a greater gap between the cons and the Liberals: Con 121 Lib 86 B60 N 40 Other 1.

I’ve done region by region from BC to Atlantic based on Jan 19-20 poll results. My conclusion: I think you are muich too high on the Liberals, and low on the Conservatives. My projection gave 24 to the NDP, but late surge in NDP support, I now believe, will take it to aboout the 29 seat mark in your prediction.

Here are my predictions:

Bloc PC Lib NDP

Polling (%): 37 31 17
(SES CPAC)

Seats 60 143 75 24

Mike Cassidy, mkcassidy@sympatico.ca, Ottawa

Thanks Greg for your analysis. I have talked to a lot of people that are now watching your site regularly. Let’s see how close you are.

A Conservative Minority with an NDP balance of power in acceptable. We would be back to the polls in under 2 years, however, I would assume. At least in the interm the two unlikely allies would pass a few Government Ethics bills and attempt to clean up Parliment, but I doubt any real social work would get completed however…

Can a Conservative minority government really last 2 years? That seems incredibly optimistic to me. My instincts tell me we’re seeing 1979 all over again, and that we could be at the polls again within a year. I think the opposition will not want us to vote that soon and things will last longer, but 18 months would make for a very long-lived government in this scenario. The only party that has any commonalities with the Conservatives is the … Liberals.

The only party that has any hope at a consistent majority is the Liberal party, and their odds of doing so look sketchy at best for the forseeable future. We may need NDP-Liberal alliances (where the parties run one candidate between them, to remove votesplitting) or, God forbid! … a Liberal-Conservative alliance. These are the only ways to consistently prevent the Bloc from preventing functional governments.

As I type this, the NDP are within 10 seats of the balance of power with the Conservatives. I don’t think I’ve ever wanted the Conservatives to win a seat before, but now I would really like them to pick up some of these seats if it could benefit the NDP balance of power…