I have updated Strategic Counsel, SES and Ipsos-Reid to their latest polls. The most significant trend is the loss of Bloc support to the Conservatives outside of Montreal, making the Tories competitive in several Quebec City and Eastern Township ridings. This update reflects several small refinements to the model to adjust for slightly more or slightly less shifts that we are seeing regionally, based on regional polling. For complete details, see:
http://election.democraticSPACE.com
My 5-poll rolling average yields a Conservative minority with the Bloc Quebecois or NDP holding the balance of power.
Note:
CPC+BQ=190
CPC+NDP=161
LPC+BQ=146
LPC+NDP=117
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2006 PROJECTED RESULTS - 13 Jan
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LPC
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CPC
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NDP
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GRN
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BQ
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OTH
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TOTAL SEATS
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89
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133
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28
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0
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57
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0
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% OF SEATS
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29%
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43%
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9%
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0%
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19%
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0%
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