I have added 3 new polls: Jan 4 EKOS, Jan 4 Strategic Counsel and Jan 5 Leger, all of which show the Conservatives with the edge. My rolling average now includes the following polls:

Jan 5 Leger
Jan 4 Strategic Counsel
Jan 4 EKOS
Jan 2 Ipsos-Reid
Dec 30 SES

For complete details, see:

http://election.democraticSPACE.com

My 5-poll rolling average yields a Conservative minority with the Bloc Quebecois holding the balance of power.

Note:
LPC+BQ=161
CPC+BQ=180
LPC+NDP=128
CPC+NDP=147

	2006 PROJECTED RESULTS - 30 Dec-5 Jan
	LPC	CPC	NDP	GRN	BQ	OTH
TOTAL SEATS	101	120	27	0	60	0
% OF SEATS	33%	39%	9%	0%	20%	0%

The above is based on the following regional averages (change from 2004 in parenthesis):

NATIONAL
Conservative 33.8% (+4.2%)
Liberal 32.2% (-4.5%)
NDP 16.6% (+0.9%)
Bloc Quebecois 12.0% (-0.4%)
Green 5.2% (+0.9%)

ONTARIO
Liberal 38.8% (-5.9%)
Conservative 35.4% (+3.9%)
NDP 19.0% (+0.9%)
Green 6.0% (+1.5%)

QUEBEC
Bloc Quebecois 49.2% (+0.3%)
Liberal 26.2% (-7.7%)
Conservative 13.6% (+4.8%)
NDP 7.4% (+2.8%)
Green 3.2% (0)

BRITISH COLUMBIA
Conservative 35.8% (-0.5%)
Liberal 32.0% (+3.4%)
NDP 25.8% (-0.7%)
Green 6.0% (-0.3%)

ALBERTA
Conservative 60.6% (-1.0%)
Liberal 20.0% (-2.0%)
NDP 10.6% (+1.0%)
Green 7.6% (+1.4%)

PRAIRIES
Conservative 47.0% (+6.7%)
Liberal 25.2% (-5.2%)
NDP 21.6% (-1.9%)
Green 4.4% (+1.7%)

ATLANTIC CANADA
Liberal 43.4% (-2.8%)
Conservative 34.0% (+3.5%)
NDP 18.4% (-1.4%)
Green 4.0% (+0.9%)

Note: remainder is ‘Other’