I have added 2 new polls: Jan 8 SES, Jan 8 Strategic Counsel, both showing the Conservatives continuing to gain strength. Note: a Dec 8 Decima poll was released which confirmed the trend, but it does not have complete regional data, thus I cannot use it in the seat projections. My rolling average now includes the following polls:

Jan 8 SES
Jan 8 Strategic Counsel
Jan 7 EKOS
Jan 7 Ipsos-Reid
Jan 5 Leger

For complete details, see:

http://election.democraticSPACE.com

My 5-poll rolling average yields a Conservative minority with the Bloc Quebecois holding the balance of power.

Note:
CPC+BQ=183
LPC+BQ=159
CPC+NDP=149
LPC+NDP=125

	2006 PROJECTED RESULTS - 5-8 Jan
	LPC	CPC	NDP	GRN	BQ	OTH
TOTAL SEATS	98	122	27	0	61	0
% OF SEATS	31%	40%	9%	0%	20%	0%

The above is based on the following regional averages (change from 2004 in parenthesis):

NATIONAL
Conservative 35.2% (+5.6%)
Liberal 30.6% (-6.1%)
NDP 16.8% (+1.1%)
Bloc Quebecois 11.2% (-1.2%)
Green 5.4% (+1.1%)

ONTARIO
Liberal 37.6% (-7.1%)
Conservative 37.6% (+6.1%)
NDP 18.8% (+0.7%)
Green 5.4% (+0.9%)

QUEBEC
Bloc Quebecois 47.0% (-1.9%)
Liberal 22.4% (-11.5%)
Conservative 18.2% (+9.4%)
NDP 8.6% (+4.0%)
Green 3.0% (-0.2%)

BRITISH COLUMBIA
Conservative 37.0% (+0.7%)
Liberal 30.4% (+1.8%)
NDP 24.4% (-2.1%)
Green 7.6% (+1.3%)

ALBERTA
Conservative 59.2% (-2.4%)
Liberal 21.3% (-0.8%)
NDP 12.2% (+2.6%)
Green 7.0% (+0.8%)

PRAIRIES
Conservative 42.6% (+2.3%)
Liberal 27.0% (-3.4%)
NDP 22.6% (-0.9%)
Green 5.6% (+2.9%)

ATLANTIC CANADA
Liberal 44.8% (-1.4%)
Conservative 33.6% (+3.1%)
NDP 18.8% (-1.0%)
Green 2.8% (-0.3%)

Note: remainder is ‘Other’