To wrap up our election coverage, we have compared the predicted vs. actual results for the five major parties in every riding. Overall, the model correctly allocated 94% of the votes (overall accuracy) and correctly predicted 92% of the seats.
DOWNLOAD PREDICTED VS. ACTUAL PDF (800kb)
The following tables summarize the predicted vs. actual results for riding-by-riding seat predictions, overal seat counts and share of vote. An example of how vote accuracy is calculated is given at the bottom.
RIDING-BY-RIDING SEAT PREDICTIONS
| REGION | CORRECT | INCORRECT | % CORRECT | ACCURACY |
| NATIONAL | 283 | 25 | 92% | 94% |
| ONTARIO | 95 | 11 | 90% | 94% |
| QUEBEC | 68 | 7 | 91% | 93% |
| BRITISH COLUMBIA | 34 | 2 | 94% | 95% |
| ALBERTA | 28 | 0 | 100% | 95% |
| PRAIRIES | 25 | 3 | 89% | 93% |
| ATLANTIC CANADA | 30 | 2 | 94% | 94% |
| NORTH | 3 | 0 | 100% | 92% |
SEAT COUNTS
| REGION |  |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
| NATIONAL | Actual | 124 | 103 | 29 | 51 | 1 |
| Predicted | 128 | 94 | 29 | 56 | 1 | |
| Difference | -4 | +9 | 0 | -5 | 0 | |
| ONTARIO | Actual | 40 | 54 | 12 | - | 0 |
| Predicted | 44 | 49 | 13 | - | 0 | |
| Difference | -4 | +5 | -1 | - | 0 | |
| QUEBEC | Actual | 10 | 13 | 0 | 51 | 1 |
| Predicted | 6 | 12 | 0 | 56 | 1 | |
| Difference | +4 | +1 | 0 | -5 | 0 | |
| BRITISH COLUMBIA | Actual | 17 | 9 | 10 | - | 0 |
| Predicted | 19 | 9 | 8 | - | 0 | |
| Difference | -2 | 0 | +2 | - | 0 | |
| ALBERTA | Actual | 28 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 |
| Predicted | 28 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | |
| Difference | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | |
| PRAIRIES | Actual | 20 | 5 | 3 | - | 0 |
| Predicted | 20 | 4 | 4 | - | 0 | |
| Difference | 0 | +1 | -1 | - | 0 | |
| ATLANTIC CANADA | Actual | 9 | 20 | 3 | - | 0 |
| Predicted | 11 | 18 | 3 | - | 0 | |
| Difference | -2 | +2 | 0 | - | 0 | |
| NORTH | Actual | 0 | 2 | 1 | - | 0 |
| Predicted | 0 | 2 | 1 | - | 0 | |
| Difference | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 |
SHARE OF VOTE
| REGION | |
|
|
|
|
|
| NATIONAL | Actual | 36.3% | 30.2% | 17.5% | 10.5% | 5.5% |
| Predicted | 36.8% | 29.5% | 17.3% | 10.7% | 5.7% | |
| Difference | -0.5% | +0.7% | -0.2% | -0.2% | +0.2% | |
| ONTARIO | Actual | 35.1% | 39.9% | 19.4% | - | 5.6% |
| Predicted | 36.1% | 37.9% | 20.4% | - | 5.9% | |
| Difference | -1.0% | +2.0% | -0.7% | - | -0.3% | |
| QUEBEC | Actual | 24.6% | 20.7% | 7.5% | 42.1% | 5.1% |
| Predicted | 25.6% | 16.7% | 8.2% | 44.9% | 4.6% | |
| Difference | -1.0% | +4.0% | -0.7% | -2.8% | +0.5% | |
| BRITISH COLUMBIA | Actual | 37.3% | 27.6% | 28.6% | - | 6.5% |
| Predicted | 36.4% | 30.3% | 26.7% | - | 6.6% | |
| Difference | +0.9% | -2.7% | +1.9% | - | -0.1% | |
| ALBERTA | Actual | 65.0% | 15.3% | 11.7% | - | 8.0% |
| Predicted | 62.5% | 15.8% | 13.6% | - | 8.1% | |
| Difference | +2.5% | -0.7% | -1.9% | - | -0.1% | |
| PRAIRIES | Actual | 45.6% | 24.4% | 24.8% | - | 5.2% |
| Predicted | 48.2% | 24.8% | 22.3% | - | 4.7% | |
| Difference | -2.6% | -0.4% | +2.5% | - | +0.5% | |
| ATLANTIC CANADA | Actual | 34.8% | 40.0% | 22.4% | - | 2.8% |
| Predicted | 36.4% | 40.8% | 19.7% | - | 3.1% | |
| Difference | -1.6% | -0.8% | 2.7% | - | -0.3% | |
| NORTH | Actual | 23.7% | 40.2% | 29.6% | - | 6.5% |
| Predicted | 21.0% | 37.5% | 32.5% | - | 9.0% | |
| Difference | +2.7% | +2.7% | -2.9% | - | -2.5% |
Example of how accuracy is calculated:
Nipissing-Timiskaming (ON)
| RESULT | |
|
|
 |
| Actual | 45% | 34% | 17% | 6% |
| Predicted | 45% | 36% | 17% | 4% |
| Difference | 0% | -2% | 0% | +2% |
Therefore, in Nipissing-Timiskaming, the model projected the Conservatives 2% too high and the Greens 2% too low. Thus, the model allocated 2% of the vote incorrectly. Therefore the accuracy in this riding is 98%.