Predicting who will be in the Tory Cabinet is more sport and entertainment than science. Harper will need to balance the different regions (which should be relatively easy), appoint as many of his women MPs (which will be tough given that only 14 out of 124 Tory MPs are women) and as many minorities as possible (very tough since very few Tory MPs are minorities), and of course, appoint those with previous cabinet experience (another challenge since only 2 have Federal cabinet experience, but a larger number have Provincial cabinet experience). The Conservatives will also be challenged to find adequate representation for the nation’s three largest cities, Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, where they failed to win any urban seats (making the suburban seats they won in these cities critical). Harper will also be challenged with the task of limiting his loyal Alberta caucus to 6 or 7 members. The consensus is that Harper’s cabinet will be smaller than Martin’s, probably between 26 and 30 members (I’m guessing about 28 members). Given these criteria, here is my best guess at what the Tory Cabinet might look like (listed alphabetically by last name):

Ablonczy, Diane , Calgary-Nose Hill (AB): a certainty for cabinet, there are many possibilities here, including Health, Immigration or Foreign Affairs.

Ambrose, Rona, Edmonton-Spruce Grove (AB): many possibilities here, with Intergovernmental Affairs, International Trade and Social Development being good bets.

Baird, John, Ottawa West-Nepean (ON): a former Minister under Mike Harris, Baird is a possibility for president of the Treasury Board, given his proximity to the public service in Ottawa. He could also wind up with Public Works or Human Resources.

Bernier, Maxime, Beauce (QC): a lawyer with a strong business background and son of a long-time PC cabinet member, Bernier is a good bet for the Harper cabinet, possibly International Trade.

Blackburn, Jean-Pierre, Jonquiere-Alma (QC): a Tory MP under Mulroney, Blackburn will benefit from Harper’s desire to reward Quebec for its faith in his party.

Cannon, Lawrence, Pontiac (QC): given the desire to demonstrate that Quebec votes matter, Cannon might be tapped as Deputy Prime Minister. Has a business background and has held Foreign Trade and Transport portfolios at the Provincial level. He could also land Defense.

Clement, Tony, Parry Sound-Muskoka (ON): narrowly winning his seat after judicial recount, Clement, a former Minister under Mike Harris, is a good bet for Health or Environment.

Day, Stockwell, Okanagan-Coquihalla (BC): not likely to get Foreign Affairs, but could get a less high profile internationally-oriented post such as International Trade or National Revenue.

Finley, Diane, Haldimand-Norfolk (ON): a good bet for Agriculture, a post she held as opposition critic. Her Southwestern Ontario riding was also that of former Agriculture Minister Bob Speller.

Flaherty, Jim, Whitby-Oshawa (ON): the former Ontario Finance Minister and contender for the Ontario PC Leadership is a good bet for Finance. One of a handful with Senior Provincial cabinet experience.

Fletcher, Stephen, Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia (MB): has an outside chance of getting the Health portfolio, but given this is one of the senior cabinet posts, that possibility for Fletcher is probably an outside chance.

Guergis, Helena, Simcoe-Grey (ON): one of only a few Greater Toronto Area Tory MPs and one of only a handful of women might be enough to land Guergis a junior cabinet position.

Harper, Stephen, Calgary Southwest (AB): Prime Minister. There is some speculation that Harper might keep the Intergovernmental Affairs file himself, but that appears to be an outside chance.

Hearn, Loyola, St. John’s South-Mount Pearl (NL): a good bet for Fisheries and Oceans, Hearn could also be a candidate for the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency (ACOA).

Hill, Jay, Prince George-Peace River (BC): could be Government House Leader, a title that he held in opposition.

Jaffer, Rahim, Edmonton-Strathcona (AB): a tough call here. Jaffer has his share of enemies and coming from Alberta work against him. However, the Conservatives will be under pressure to appoint Jaffer, who is one of the more high-profile visible minority candidates. He has been opposition critic for infrastructure and cities.

Kenney, Jason, Calgary Southeast (AB): a longtime Harper supporter, Kenney will be given a cabinet position, but probably not high profile given a perception that he might be a little too controversial. He has an outside chance at President of the Treasury Board.

Nicholson, Rob, Niagara Falls (ON): one of only two former Federal Ministers, Nicholson will likely get a cabinet position, although likely in a junior position, possibly Transport, where he was opposition critic.

Oda, Bev, Durham (ON): a good bet for Heritage, a post she has held as opposition critic. The Conservatives are also desparate to have representation in the Greater Toronto Area, and the fact that she is a visible minority make her cabinet appointment a virtual lock.

Prentice, Jim, Calgary Centre North (AB): He might not want it, but Prentice is a good bet for Indian Affairs, or possibly Environment. He represents the more moderate part of the party.

Mackay, Peter, Central Nova (NS): the question here is whether Mackay is tapped as Deputy Prime Minister or whether Harper elects to go with Cannon. If he elects Cannon, Mackay could get Justice or Public Security. A senior post is a certainty.

Moore, James, Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam (BC): would be the youngest Cabinet member at just 29 years old, Moore is one of the few Vancouver-area MPs. He would likely get a junior post, but has served as Senior Transport critic in opposition.

Reid, Scott, Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox & Addington (ON): if he is chosen, Reid, a close friend of Harper’s, might be given the task of heading up Democratic Renewal. A constitutional expert, Reid might lead efforts on Senate and Electoral Reform. Was the opposition critic for democratic renewal.

Solberg, Monte, Medicine Hat (AB): a certainty for a senior cabinet position, given his popularity and competence. He has been finance critic in opposition, but would likely be a longshot for this post, given he doesn’t have an economic background. His personable demeanor would make him ideal for Foreign Affairs.

Strahl, Chuck, Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon (BC): well liked by all, Strahl could become the Speaker of the House, if Kingston MP Peter Milliken is not elected to the post.

Segal, Hugh (ON): almost a certainy that Segal will be Government Leader in the Senate. The former PC strategist and public policy expert is well liked and well respected across partisan lines.

Thompson, Greg, New Brunswick Southwest (NB): a good bet for the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency (ACOA), Thompson is the best bet for a cabinet post in New Brunswick.

Toews, Vic, Provencher (MB): a former Provincial cabinet minister, Toews will probably not get Justice, as he might be seen as too controversial, but could get a lesser post such as Public Security.

Turner, Garth, Halton (ON): one of only two former Federal cabinet ministers, Turner is a strong bet for Cabinet, as one of only X MPs from the Greater Toronto Area. As head of the Sierra Defense Fund, Turner may be given the Environment Minister post, or possible President of the Treasury Board.

Verner, Josee , Louis-Saint-Laurent (QC): a good bet to be in charge of Quebec Economic Development and responsible for La Francophonie, two duties that she has held as opposition critic. She should, however, get a bigger post given her hard work in Quebec.

Yelich, Lynne, Blackstrap (SK): has been effective in opposition and could get Social Development. Being from Saskatchewan and being a women give her an advantage. Has also been critic for Transport and Immigration.

Gender Breakdown:
Male = 23
Female = 7

Regional Breakdown:
Alberta = 7 (including Harper)
Ontario = 9
Quebec = 4
British Columbia = 4
Prairies = 3
Atlantic Canada = 3

(note: Senator Hugh Segal not included in breakdowns)