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Projected First Round Liberal Delegates - Details
Tuesday September 05th 2006, 8:06 pm
Filed under: Canadian Politics, - Liberal Party, - - 2006 Leadership

Return to ORIGINAL POST / ANALYSIS.

DETAILED BREAKDOWN
Last Updated: Sept 17, 2006.

CONTENTS
1. RIDING DELEGATES - SUMMARY
2. RIDING DELEGATES - CONTRIBUTIONS ANALYSIS
3. RIDING DELEGATES - MEMBERSHIPS ANALYSIS
4. EX-OFFICIO DELEGATES
5. WOMEN, STUDENT, SENIOR & ABORIGINAL DELEGATES

1. RIDING DELEGATES - SUMMARY
SELECT PROVINCE/TERRITORY
ON | QC | BC | AB | MB | SK | NS | NB | NL | PE | NT | YT | NU

Estimates are based on 50% contributions and 50% membership support. Contributions are based on a regional breakdown, using the second quarter Elections Canada reports (through June 30), and adding the July reporting as published on the Liberal Party Website. Regions are based on the DemocraticSPACE seat projection model, which has proved very accurate in the 2004 and 2006 elections. One caveat: readers should use caution when interpreting the delegate assignments in regions with little support — this typically results in one or two candidates received all or most of the delegates, which is unlikely to be true in practice. Keep in mind these are estimates only. Membership support is broken down by province, into new and existing members, the form accounting for 46% of Liberal members and the latter for 54% of members. Support from existing members is estimated. Note: tally does not include undeclared July Ignatieff contributions (estimates for contribution portion were made by multiplying regional tallies by 1.32).

ONTARIO

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) 22 50 65 63 1 41 232 59 118 91
MEMBERSHIPS (50%) 12 36 80 52 4 26 174 151 108 99
TOTAL DELEGATES 34 86 145 115 5 67 406 210 226 190

QUEBEC

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) 0 87 175 24 0 4 83 42 105 5
MEMBERSHIPS (50%) 4 29 112 23 3 13 130 31 81 100
TOTAL DELEGATES 4 116 287 47 3 17 213 73 186 105

BRITISH COLUMBIA

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) 4 10 33 42 18 22 63 44 14 2
MEMBERSHIPS (50%) 2 8 32 10 9 6 45 70 54 16
TOTAL DELEGATES 6 18 65 52 27 28 108 114 68 18

ALBERTA

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) 0 29 3 7 0 22 61 68 4 2
MEMBERSHIPS (50%) 2 19 19 10 1 10 42 47 21 25
TOTAL DELEGATES 2 48 22 17 1 32 103 115 25 27

MANITOBA

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) 0 7 17 7 0 0 16 48 3 0
MEMBERSHIPS (50%) 1 3 5 22 1 4 24 12 22 4
TOTAL DELEGATES 1 10 22 29 1 4 40 60 25 4

SASKATCHEWAN

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) 0 11 6 0 0 0 52 29 0 0
MEMBERSHIPS (50%) 1 6 10 3 1 4 19 18 31 5
TOTAL DELEGATES 1 17 16 3 1 4 71 47 31 5

NOVA SCOTIA

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) 0 65 1 1 0 0 7 3 0 0
MEMBERSHIPS (50%) 1 29 4 3 0 2 15 12 8 3
TOTAL DELEGATES 1 94 5 4 0 2 22 15 8 3

NEW BRUNSWICK

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) 0 13 0 2 0 0 5 48 2 0
MEMBERSHIPS (50%) 1 9 4 5 0 2 19 16 12 2
TOTAL DELEGATES 1 22 4 7 0 2 24 64 14 2

NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) 0 0 0 49 0 0 0 0 0 0
MEMBERSHIPS (50%) 1 2 2 5 0 2 10 12 10 5
TOTAL DELEGATES 1 2 2 54 0 2 10 12 10 5

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) 0 3 0 22 0 0 0 3 0 0
MEMBERSHIPS (50%) 0 3 2 3 0 1 8 6 4 2
TOTAL DELEGATES 0 6 2 25 0 1 8 6 4 2

NORTHWEST TERRITORIES

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0
MEMBERSHIPS (50%) 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 2 1 0
TOTAL DELEGATES 0 0 0 8 0 0 3 2 1 0

YUKON

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0
MEMBERSHIPS (50%) 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 2 1 0
TOTAL DELEGATES 0 0 0 1 0 0 10 2 1 0

NUNAVUT

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0
MEMBERSHIPS (50%) 0 1 0 1 0 0 2 2 1 0
TOTAL DELEGATES 0 1 0 8 0 0 2 2 1 0

2. RIDING DELEGATES - CONTRIBUTION ANALYSIS (50%)

TOTAL CONTRIBUTIONS (BY PROVINCE)
Note: Ignatieff’s July contributions are missing from his July report, thus his total contributions should be higher.

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
ON 54 89 78 53 2 56 356 118 194 167
QC 0 40 31 3 0 1 17 7 22 0
BC 2 5 11 7 9 9 24 13 6 1
AB 0 28 7 2 0 6 88 64 2 5
MB 0 3 5 2 0 0 7 14 1 0
SK 0 2 1 0 0 0 9 5 0 0
NS 0 58 1 1 0 0 6 2 0 0
NB 0 8 0 1 0 0 3 28 1 0
NL 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
PE 0 1 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0
NT 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
YT 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
NU 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

SELECT PROVINCE/TERRITORY
ON | QC | BC | AB | MB | SK | NS | NB | NL | PE | NT | YT | NU

ONTARIO
SUMMARY (106 ridings)

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
TOTAL 54 89 78 53 2 56 356 118 194 167
% 5% 8% 7% 5% 0% 5% 31% 10% 17% 14%
50% DELEGATES 22 50 65 63 1 41 232 59 118 91

NORTHERN ONTARIO (10 ridings)

PLACE BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Bear Island 1
Elliot Lake 1
Kenora 1
North Bay 1
Pointe-au-Baril 1
Sault Ste Marie 2
Sudbury 1 1
Thunder Bay 1 1 3
TOTAL 0 0 3 0 0 2 8 1 0 0
% 0% 0% 21% 0% 0% 14% 57% 7% 0% 0%
50% DELEGATES 0 0 15 0 0 10 40 5 0 0

OTTAWA (6 ridings)

PLACE BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Gloucester 1
Kanata 1 1 1
Nepean 2 1 1
Orleans 3 1 1
Osgoode 1
Ottawa 4 29 32 15 0 5 12 4 6 2
Rockcliffe 1 1
TOTAL 4 34 35 17 0 5 14 7 7 2
% 3% 27% 28% 14% 0% 4% 11% 6% 6% 2%
50% DELEGATES 2 11 12 5 0 2 5 2 2 1

EASTERN ONTARIO (11 ridings)

PLACE BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Almonte 1
Amherstview 1 1 1 1 1
Belleville 1 2
Berwick 1
Campbellford 1
Carp 1
Cornwall 1 1
Glenburnie 1
Kingston 2 1 1 4
Lakefield 1 1
Morrisburg 2 1
Perth 1 1
Peterborough 1 1 2
Picton 1
Sarsfield 1
Sharbot Lake 1
Tweed 1
Westmeath 1 1 1
TOTAL 3 5 11 3 0 3 6 2 8 0
% 7% 12% 27% 7% 0% 7% 15% 5% 20% 0%
50% DELEGATES 6 9 20 6 0 6 11 4 15 0

SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO (20 ridings)

PLACE BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Cambridge 1
Dundalk 1
Dunnville 1
Elmira 1
Guelph 1
Kippen 1
Kitchener 2 2
London 1 3 4
Simcoe 1
Sparta 1
St Clement’s 1
Srathroy 1
Waterloo 1 1
Windsor 1
Woodstock 2
TOTAL 0 2 1 6 0 0 8 2 8 0
% 0% 7% 4% 22% 0% 0% 30% 7% 30% 0%
50% DELEGATES 0 10 5 32 0 0 41 11 41 0

HAMILTON-NIAGARA (9 ridings)

PLACE BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Dundas 1 1
Beamsville 1
Fonthill 1
Hamilton 5
Niagara Falls 2 2
Niagara-on-the-Lake 1 <