Projected First Round Liberal Delegates - Details
Return to ORIGINAL POST / ANALYSIS.
DETAILED BREAKDOWN
Last Updated: Sept 17, 2006.
CONTENTS
1. RIDING DELEGATES - SUMMARY
2. RIDING DELEGATES - CONTRIBUTIONS ANALYSIS
3. RIDING DELEGATES - MEMBERSHIPS ANALYSIS
4. EX-OFFICIO DELEGATES
5. WOMEN, STUDENT, SENIOR & ABORIGINAL DELEGATES
1. RIDING DELEGATES - SUMMARY
SELECT PROVINCE/TERRITORY
ON | QC | BC | AB | MB | SK | NS | NB | NL | PE | NT | YT | NU
Estimates are based on 50% contributions and 50% membership support. Contributions are based on a regional breakdown, using the second quarter Elections Canada reports (through June 30), and adding the July reporting as published on the Liberal Party Website. Regions are based on the DemocraticSPACE seat projection model, which has proved very accurate in the 2004 and 2006 elections. One caveat: readers should use caution when interpreting the delegate assignments in regions with little support — this typically results in one or two candidates received all or most of the delegates, which is unlikely to be true in practice. Keep in mind these are estimates only. Membership support is broken down by province, into new and existing members, the form accounting for 46% of Liberal members and the latter for 54% of members. Support from existing members is estimated. Note: tally does not include undeclared July Ignatieff contributions (estimates for contribution portion were made by multiplying regional tallies by 1.32).
ONTARIO 
|
BENNETT |
BRISON |
DION |
DRYDEN |
FRY |
MHF |
IGGY |
GK |
RAE |
VOLPE |
| CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) |
22 |
50 |
65 |
63 |
1 |
41 |
232 |
59 |
118 |
91 |
| MEMBERSHIPS (50%) |
12 |
36 |
80 |
52 |
4 |
26 |
174 |
151 |
108 |
99 |
| TOTAL DELEGATES |
34 |
86 |
145 |
115 |
5 |
67 |
406 |
210 |
226 |
190 |
QUEBEC 
|
BENNETT |
BRISON |
DION |
DRYDEN |
FRY |
MHF |
IGGY |
GK |
RAE |
VOLPE |
| CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) |
0 |
87 |
175 |
24 |
0 |
4 |
83 |
42 |
105 |
5 |
| MEMBERSHIPS (50%) |
4 |
29 |
112 |
23 |
3 |
13 |
130 |
31 |
81 |
100 |
| TOTAL DELEGATES |
4 |
116 |
287 |
47 |
3 |
17 |
213 |
73 |
186 |
105 |
BRITISH COLUMBIA 
|
BENNETT |
BRISON |
DION |
DRYDEN |
FRY |
MHF |
IGGY |
GK |
RAE |
VOLPE |
| CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) |
4 |
10 |
33 |
42 |
18 |
22 |
63 |
44 |
14 |
2 |
| MEMBERSHIPS (50%) |
2 |
8 |
32 |
10 |
9 |
6 |
45 |
70 |
54 |
16 |
| TOTAL DELEGATES |
6 |
18 |
65 |
52 |
27 |
28 |
108 |
114 |
68 |
18 |
ALBERTA 
|
BENNETT |
BRISON |
DION |
DRYDEN |
FRY |
MHF |
IGGY |
GK |
RAE |
VOLPE |
| CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) |
0 |
29 |
3 |
7 |
0 |
22 |
61 |
68 |
4 |
2 |
| MEMBERSHIPS (50%) |
2 |
19 |
19 |
10 |
1 |
10 |
42 |
47 |
21 |
25 |
| TOTAL DELEGATES |
2 |
48 |
22 |
17 |
1 |
32 |
103 |
115 |
25 |
27 |
MANITOBA 
|
BENNETT |
BRISON |
DION |
DRYDEN |
FRY |
MHF |
IGGY |
GK |
RAE |
VOLPE |
| CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) |
0 |
7 |
17 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
16 |
48 |
3 |
0 |
| MEMBERSHIPS (50%) |
1 |
3 |
5 |
22 |
1 |
4 |
24 |
12 |
22 |
4 |
| TOTAL DELEGATES |
1 |
10 |
22 |
29 |
1 |
4 |
40 |
60 |
25 |
4 |
SASKATCHEWAN 
|
BENNETT |
BRISON |
DION |
DRYDEN |
FRY |
MHF |
IGGY |
GK |
RAE |
VOLPE |
| CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) |
0 |
11 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
52 |
29 |
0 |
0 |
| MEMBERSHIPS (50%) |
1 |
6 |
10 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
19 |
18 |
31 |
5 |
| TOTAL DELEGATES |
1 |
17 |
16 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
71 |
47 |
31 |
5 |
NOVA SCOTIA 
|
BENNETT |
BRISON |
DION |
DRYDEN |
FRY |
MHF |
IGGY |
GK |
RAE |
VOLPE |
| CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) |
0 |
65 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
| MEMBERSHIPS (50%) |
1 |
29 |
4 |
3 |
0 |
2 |
15 |
12 |
8 |
3 |
| TOTAL DELEGATES |
1 |
94 |
5 |
4 |
0 |
2 |
22 |
15 |
8 |
3 |
NEW BRUNSWICK 
|
BENNETT |
BRISON |
DION |
DRYDEN |
FRY |
MHF |
IGGY |
GK |
RAE |
VOLPE |
| CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) |
0 |
13 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
48 |
2 |
0 |
| MEMBERSHIPS (50%) |
1 |
9 |
4 |
5 |
0 |
2 |
19 |
16 |
12 |
2 |
| TOTAL DELEGATES |
1 |
22 |
4 |
7 |
0 |
2 |
24 |
64 |
14 |
2 |
NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR 
|
BENNETT |
BRISON |
DION |
DRYDEN |
FRY |
MHF |
IGGY |
GK |
RAE |
VOLPE |
| CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
49 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| MEMBERSHIPS (50%) |
1 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
0 |
2 |
10 |
12 |
10 |
5 |
| TOTAL DELEGATES |
1 |
2 |
2 |
54 |
0 |
2 |
10 |
12 |
10 |
5 |
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND 
|
BENNETT |
BRISON |
DION |
DRYDEN |
FRY |
MHF |
IGGY |
GK |
RAE |
VOLPE |
| CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) |
0 |
3 |
0 |
22 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
| MEMBERSHIPS (50%) |
0 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
6 |
4 |
2 |
| TOTAL DELEGATES |
0 |
6 |
2 |
25 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
6 |
4 |
2 |
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES 
|
BENNETT |
BRISON |
DION |
DRYDEN |
FRY |
MHF |
IGGY |
GK |
RAE |
VOLPE |
| CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| MEMBERSHIPS (50%) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
| TOTAL DELEGATES |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
YUKON 
|
BENNETT |
BRISON |
DION |
DRYDEN |
FRY |
MHF |
IGGY |
GK |
RAE |
VOLPE |
| CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| MEMBERSHIPS (50%) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
| TOTAL DELEGATES |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
NUNAVUT 
|
BENNETT |
BRISON |
DION |
DRYDEN |
FRY |
MHF |
IGGY |
GK |
RAE |
VOLPE |
| CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| MEMBERSHIPS (50%) |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
| TOTAL DELEGATES |
0 |
1 |
0 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
2. RIDING DELEGATES - CONTRIBUTION ANALYSIS (50%)
TOTAL CONTRIBUTIONS (BY PROVINCE)
Note: Ignatieff’s July contributions are missing from his July report, thus his total contributions should be higher.
|
BENNETT |
BRISON |
DION |
DRYDEN |
FRY |
MHF |
IGGY |
GK |
RAE |
VOLPE |
| ON |
54 |
89 |
78 |
53 |
2 |
56 |
356 |
118 |
194 |
167 |
| QC |
0 |
40 |
31 |
3 |
0 |
1 |
17 |
7 |
22 |
0 |
| BC |
2 |
5 |
11 |
7 |
9 |
9 |
24 |
13 |
6 |
1 |
| AB |
0 |
28 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
6 |
88 |
64 |
2 |
5 |
| MB |
0 |
3 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
14 |
1 |
0 |
| SK |
0 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
| NS |
0 |
58 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
| NB |
0 |
8 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
28 |
1 |
0 |
| NL |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| PE |
0 |
1 |
0 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| NT |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| YT |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| NU |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
SELECT PROVINCE/TERRITORY
ON | QC | BC | AB | MB | SK | NS | NB | NL | PE | NT | YT | NU
ONTARIO
SUMMARY (106 ridings)
|
BENNETT |
BRISON |
DION |
DRYDEN |
FRY |
MHF |
IGGY |
GK |
RAE |
VOLPE |
| TOTAL |
54 |
89 |
78 |
53 |
2 |
56 |
356 |
118 |
194 |
167 |
| % |
5% |
8% |
7% |
5% |
0% |
5% |
31% |
10% |
17% |
14% |
| 50% DELEGATES |
22 |
50 |
65 |
63 |
1 |
41 |
232 |
59 |
118 |
91 |
NORTHERN ONTARIO (10 ridings)
| PLACE |
BENNETT |
BRISON |
DION |
DRYDEN |
FRY |
MHF |
IGGY |
GK |
RAE |
VOLPE |
| Bear Island |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
| Elliot Lake |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Kenora |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
| North Bay |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Pointe-au-Baril |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
| Sault Ste Marie |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
| Sudbury |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
|
| Thunder Bay |
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
3 |
|
|
|
| TOTAL |
0 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| % |
0% |
0% |
21% |
0% |
0% |
14% |
57% |
7% |
0% |
0% |
| 50% DELEGATES |
0 |
0 |
15 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
40 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
OTTAWA (6 ridings)
| PLACE |
BENNETT |
BRISON |
DION |
DRYDEN |
FRY |
MHF |
IGGY |
GK |
RAE |
VOLPE |
| Gloucester |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
| Kanata |
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
| Nepean |
|
2 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
|
| Orleans |
|
3 |
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
| Osgoode |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Ottawa |
4 |
29 |
32 |
15 |
0 |
5 |
12 |
4 |
6 |
2 |
| Rockcliffe |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
| TOTAL |
4 |
34 |
35 |
17 |
0 |
5 |
14 |
7 |
7 |
2 |
| % |
3% |
27% |
28% |
14% |
0% |
4% |
11% |
6% |
6% |
2% |
| 50% DELEGATES |
2 |
11 |
12 |
5 |
0 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
EASTERN ONTARIO (11 ridings)
| PLACE |
BENNETT |
BRISON |
DION |
DRYDEN |
FRY |
MHF |
IGGY |
GK |
RAE |
VOLPE |
| Almonte |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Amherstview |
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
|
| Belleville |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
| Berwick |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Campbellford |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Carp |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Cornwall |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
| Glenburnie |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
| Kingston |
|
|
2 |
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
4 |
|
| Lakefield |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
| Morrisburg |
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
| Perth |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
| Peterborough |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
|
| Picton |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
| Sarsfield |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sharbot Lake |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Tweed |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Westmeath |
|
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
| TOTAL |
3 |
5 |
11 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
6 |
2 |
8 |
0 |
| % |
7% |
12% |
27% |
7% |
0% |
7% |
15% |
5% |
20% |
0% |
| 50% DELEGATES |
6 |
9 |
20 |
6 |
0 |
6 |
11 |
4 |
15 |
0 |
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO (20 ridings)
| PLACE |
BENNETT |
BRISON |
DION |
DRYDEN |
FRY |
MHF |
IGGY |
GK |
RAE |
VOLPE |
| Cambridge |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
| Dundalk |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
| Dunnville |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
| Elmira |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Guelph |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
| Kippen |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Kitchener |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
2 |
|
|
| London |
|
1 |
|
3 |
|
|
|
|
4 |
|
| Simcoe |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sparta |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| St Clement’s |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Srathroy |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
| Waterloo |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| Windsor |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
| Woodstock |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
| TOTAL |
0 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
2 |
8 |
0 |
| % |
0% |
7% |
4% |
22% |
0% |
0% |
30% |
7% |
30% |
0% |
| 50% DELEGATES |
0 |
10 |
5 |
32 |
0 |
0 |
41 |
11 |
41 |
0 |
HAMILTON-NIAGARA (9 ridings)
| PLACE |
BENNETT |
BRISON |
DION |
DRYDEN |
FRY |
MHF |
IGGY |
GK |
RAE |
VOLPE |
| Dundas |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| Beamsville |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Fonthill |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Hamilton |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
|
|
|
| Niagara Falls |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
2 |
|
| Niagara-on-the-Lake |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
< |
