Projected First Round Liberal Delegates – Details
Tuesday September 05th 2006, 8:06 pm
Filed under: - - 2006 Leadership, Canadian Politics, Liberals

Return to ORIGINAL POST / ANALYSIS.

DETAILED BREAKDOWN
Last Updated: Sept 17, 2006.

CONTENTS
1. RIDING DELEGATES – SUMMARY
2. RIDING DELEGATES – CONTRIBUTIONS ANALYSIS
3. RIDING DELEGATES – MEMBERSHIPS ANALYSIS
4. EX-OFFICIO DELEGATES
5. WOMEN, STUDENT, SENIOR & ABORIGINAL DELEGATES

1. RIDING DELEGATES – SUMMARY
SELECT PROVINCE/TERRITORY
ON | QC | BC | AB | MB | SK | NS | NB | NL | PE | NT | YT | NU

Estimates are based on 50% contributions and 50% membership support. Contributions are based on a regional breakdown, using the second quarter Elections Canada reports (through June 30), and adding the July reporting as published on the Liberal Party Website. Regions are based on the DemocraticSPACE seat projection model, which has proved very accurate in the 2004 and 2006 elections. One caveat: readers should use caution when interpreting the delegate assignments in regions with little support — this typically results in one or two candidates received all or most of the delegates, which is unlikely to be true in practice. Keep in mind these are estimates only. Membership support is broken down by province, into new and existing members, the form accounting for 46% of Liberal members and the latter for 54% of members. Support from existing members is estimated. Note: tally does not include undeclared July Ignatieff contributions (estimates for contribution portion were made by multiplying regional tallies by 1.32).

ONTARIO

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) 22 50 65 63 1 41 232 59 118 91
MEMBERSHIPS (50%) 12 36 80 52 4 26 174 151 108 99
TOTAL DELEGATES 34 86 145 115 5 67 406 210 226 190

QUEBEC

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) 0 87 175 24 0 4 83 42 105 5
MEMBERSHIPS (50%) 4 29 112 23 3 13 130 31 81 100
TOTAL DELEGATES 4 116 287 47 3 17 213 73 186 105

BRITISH COLUMBIA

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) 4 10 33 42 18 22 63 44 14 2
MEMBERSHIPS (50%) 2 8 32 10 9 6 45 70 54 16
TOTAL DELEGATES 6 18 65 52 27 28 108 114 68 18

ALBERTA

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) 0 29 3 7 0 22 61 68 4 2
MEMBERSHIPS (50%) 2 19 19 10 1 10 42 47 21 25
TOTAL DELEGATES 2 48 22 17 1 32 103 115 25 27

MANITOBA

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) 0 7 17 7 0 0 16 48 3 0
MEMBERSHIPS (50%) 1 3 5 22 1 4 24 12 22 4
TOTAL DELEGATES 1 10 22 29 1 4 40 60 25 4

SASKATCHEWAN

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) 0 11 6 0 0 0 52 29 0 0
MEMBERSHIPS (50%) 1 6 10 3 1 4 19 18 31 5
TOTAL DELEGATES 1 17 16 3 1 4 71 47 31 5

NOVA SCOTIA

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) 0 65 1 1 0 0 7 3 0 0
MEMBERSHIPS (50%) 1 29 4 3 0 2 15 12 8 3
TOTAL DELEGATES 1 94 5 4 0 2 22 15 8 3

NEW BRUNSWICK

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) 0 13 0 2 0 0 5 48 2 0
MEMBERSHIPS (50%) 1 9 4 5 0 2 19 16 12 2
TOTAL DELEGATES 1 22 4 7 0 2 24 64 14 2

NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) 0 0 0 49 0 0 0 0 0 0
MEMBERSHIPS (50%) 1 2 2 5 0 2 10 12 10 5
TOTAL DELEGATES 1 2 2 54 0 2 10 12 10 5

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) 0 3 0 22 0 0 0 3 0 0
MEMBERSHIPS (50%) 0 3 2 3 0 1 8 6 4 2
TOTAL DELEGATES 0 6 2 25 0 1 8 6 4 2

NORTHWEST TERRITORIES

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0
MEMBERSHIPS (50%) 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 2 1 0
TOTAL DELEGATES 0 0 0 8 0 0 3 2 1 0

YUKON

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0
MEMBERSHIPS (50%) 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 2 1 0
TOTAL DELEGATES 0 0 0 1 0 0 10 2 1 0

NUNAVUT

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
CONTRIBUTIONS (50%) 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0
MEMBERSHIPS (50%) 0 1 0 1 0 0 2 2 1 0
TOTAL DELEGATES 0 1 0 8 0 0 2 2 1 0

2. RIDING DELEGATES – CONTRIBUTION ANALYSIS (50%)

TOTAL CONTRIBUTIONS (BY PROVINCE)
Note: Ignatieff’s July contributions are missing from his July report, thus his total contributions should be higher.

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
ON 54 89 78 53 2 56 356 118 194 167
QC 0 40 31 3 0 1 17 7 22 0
BC 2 5 11 7 9 9 24 13 6 1
AB 0 28 7 2 0 6 88 64 2 5
MB 0 3 5 2 0 0 7 14 1 0
SK 0 2 1 0 0 0 9 5 0 0
NS 0 58 1 1 0 0 6 2 0 0
NB 0 8 0 1 0 0 3 28 1 0
NL 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
PE 0 1 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0
NT 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
YT 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
NU 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

SELECT PROVINCE/TERRITORY
ON | QC | BC | AB | MB | SK | NS | NB | NL | PE | NT | YT | NU

ONTARIO
SUMMARY (106 ridings)

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
TOTAL 54 89 78 53 2 56 356 118 194 167
% 5% 8% 7% 5% 0% 5% 31% 10% 17% 14%
50% DELEGATES 22 50 65 63 1 41 232 59 118 91

NORTHERN ONTARIO (10 ridings)

PLACE BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Bear Island 1
Elliot Lake 1
Kenora 1
North Bay 1
Pointe-au-Baril 1
Sault Ste Marie 2
Sudbury 1 1
Thunder Bay 1 1 3
TOTAL 0 0 3 0 0 2 8 1 0 0
% 0% 0% 21% 0% 0% 14% 57% 7% 0% 0%
50% DELEGATES 0 0 15 0 0 10 40 5 0 0

OTTAWA (6 ridings)

PLACE BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Gloucester 1
Kanata 1 1 1
Nepean 2 1 1
Orleans 3 1 1
Osgoode 1
Ottawa 4 29 32 15 0 5 12 4 6 2
Rockcliffe 1 1
TOTAL 4 34 35 17 0 5 14 7 7 2
% 3% 27% 28% 14% 0% 4% 11% 6% 6% 2%
50% DELEGATES 2 11 12 5 0 2 5 2 2 1

EASTERN ONTARIO (11 ridings)

PLACE BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Almonte 1
Amherstview 1 1 1 1 1
Belleville 1 2
Berwick 1
Campbellford 1
Carp 1
Cornwall 1 1
Glenburnie 1
Kingston 2 1 1 4
Lakefield 1 1
Morrisburg 2 1
Perth 1 1
Peterborough 1 1 2
Picton 1
Sarsfield 1
Sharbot Lake 1
Tweed 1
Westmeath 1 1 1
TOTAL 3 5 11 3 0 3 6 2 8 0
% 7% 12% 27% 7% 0% 7% 15% 5% 20% 0%
50% DELEGATES 6 9 20 6 0 6 11 4 15 0

SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO (20 ridings)

PLACE BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Cambridge 1
Dundalk 1
Dunnville 1
Elmira 1
Guelph 1
Kippen 1
Kitchener 2 2
London 1 3 4
Simcoe 1
Sparta 1
St Clement’s 1
Srathroy 1
Waterloo 1 1
Windsor 1
Woodstock 2
TOTAL 0 2 1 6 0 0 8 2 8 0
% 0% 7% 4% 22% 0% 0% 30% 7% 30% 0%
50% DELEGATES 0 10 5 32 0 0 41 11 41 0

HAMILTON-NIAGARA (9 ridings)

PLACE BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Dundas 1 1
Beamsville 1
Fonthill 1
Hamilton 5
Niagara Falls 2 2
Niagara-on-the-Lake 1
Stoney Creek 1 1
TOTAL 0 0 0 2 0 0 10 0 3 1
% 0% 0% 0% 13% 0% 0% 63% 0% 19% 6%
50% DELEGATES 0 0 0 8 0 0 39 0 12 4

PEEL-HALTON (14 ridings)

PLACE BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Bramalea 1
Brampton 1 3 6
Burlington 3 1 4 1 1 1
Caledon 1 1
Campbellville 1
Cedar Valley 1
Collingwood 1
Georgetown 1
Milton 2
Mississauga 2 2 2 11 3 3 8
Mount Pleasant 1
Oakville 3 1 1 3 2 4 2 3
Shelburne 1
Terra Cotta 1
TOTAL 3 6 5 8 0 3 21 8 9 20
% 4% 7% 6% 10% 0% 4% 25% 10% 11% 24%
50% DELEGATES 4 7 6 8 0 4 25 10 11 23

YORK-DURHAM (14 ridings)

PLACE BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Aurora 8 1
Barrie 1 1
Brechin 1
Coldwater 2
Concord 1 4
Holland Landing 1
Innisfil 1
King City 2
Kleinburg 1 1
Maple 9
Markham 4 2 12
Newmarket 3
Pickering 2 1
Port Hope 1
Richmond Hill 1 2 2 6 2 11
Stouffville 1 3
Thornill 3 2 1 1 5
Unionville 2
Uxbridge 1 1 1 1
Vaughn 3
Whitby 2
Woodbridge 2 1 8
TOTAL 1 5 3 0 1 19 17 13 7 55
% 1% 4% 2% 0% 1% 16% 14% 11% 6% 45%
50% DELEGATES 1 4 3 0 1 15 14 11 5 44

TORONTO (22 ridings)

place BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Agincourt 4
Don Mills 1 5 4
Downsview 1 1
Etobicoke 2 14 4 3 14
Islington 1
North York 1 2 9 4 7
Rexdale 1
Scarborough 1 3 4 14
Toronto 41 37 20 14 1 21 252 64 137 39
Weston 1 1
Willowdale 1 1 3 2 6
TOTAL 43 37 20 17 1 24 272 85 152 89
% 6% 5% 3% 2% 0% 3% 37% 11% 21% 12%
50% DELEGATES 9 7 4 4 0 5 56 18 32 19

QUEBEC
SUMMARY (75 ridings)

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
TOTAL 0 40 31 3 0 1 17 7 22 0
% 0% 33% 26% 2% 0% 1% 14% 6% 18% 0%
50% DELEGATES 0 85 127 16 0 2 51 34 49 0
+ ESTIMATED 0 2 48 8 0 2 32 8 56 5
50% DELEGATES 0 87 175 24 0 4 83 42 105 5

NOTE
There have been no donations of support to any candidate in 2 of DemocraticSPACE’s 6 Quebec regions (Nord-du-Quebec-Saquenay-Gaspe and Capitale-Nationale-Bas -Saint-Laurent), accounting for 30% of Quebec ridings (23) and 322 delegates. While it is possible that many Quebec ridings will not send 14 delegates to the convention, I have pro-rated the above Quebec totals to simulate a full slate of delegates in the overall tally at the top of this post. The break-downs for the four remaining regions are as follows.

MONTREAL/LAVAL (22 ridings)

PLACE BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Baie D’Urfe 1
Cote-Saint-Luc 1
Dollard-des-Ormeaux 2
Hampstead 4
Lachine 1
Mont-Royal 1 3 1 1
Montreal 21 10 6 1 6
Pointe-Claire 1
Saint-Leonard 1 1
Verdun 1
Westmount 6 3 1 2 1 11
TOTAL 0 37 15 0 0 1 12 3 19 0
% 0% 43% 17% 0% 0% 1% 14% 3% 22% 0%
50% DELEGATES 0 65 27 0 0 2 21 6 33 0

OUTAOUAIS/LAURENTIDES/LANAUDIERE (11 ridings)

PLACE BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Cantley 1
Gatineau 1 4 1 1
Mont-Tremblant 1
Saint-Veronique 3
Val-des-Mont 2
TOTAL 0 1 9 2 0 0 1 0 1 0
% 0% 7% 64% 14% 0% 0% 7% 0% 7% 0%
50% DELEGATES 0 6 49 11 0 0 5 0 6 0

MONTEREGIE (10 ridings)

PLACE BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Brossard 1
Saint-Bruno 1
Saint-Caesaire 1
Saint-Hubert 1
Saint-Lambert 2 1
Valleyfield 1
TOTAL 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 2 0 0
% 0% 13% 50% 0% 0% 0% 13% 25% 0% 0%
50% DELEGATES 0 9 35 0 0 0 9 18 0 0

CENTRE-DU-QUEBEC/ESTRIE (9 ridings)

PLACE BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Bromont 1 1
Cap-de-la-Madeleine 1
Drummondville 1
Dunham 1
Rock Forest 1
Shefford 1
Sherbrooke 2
Thetford Mines 1
Trois-Rivieres 2
TOTAL 0 1 3 1 0 0 3 2 2 0
% 0% 8% 25% 8% 0% 0% 25% 17% 17% 0%
50% DELEGATES 0 5 16 5 0 0 16 11 11 0

BRITISH COLUMBIA
SUMMARY (36 ridings)

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
TOTAL 2 5 11 7 9 9 24 13 6 1
% 2% 6% 13% 8% 10% 10% 28% 15% 7% 1%
50% DELEGATES 4 10 33 42 18 22 63 44 14 2

VANCOUVER ISLAND (6 ridings)

PLACE BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Courtenay 1
Duncan 1
Nanaimo 1
Sydney 1
Victoria 2 1 2 3
TOTAL 0 0 2 1 0 3 5 0 1 0
% 0% 0% 17% 8% 0% 25% 42% 0% 8% 0%
50% DELEGATES 0 0 7 4 0 11 17 0 4 0

INTERIOR/NORTHERN B.C. (11 ridings)

PLACE BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Garibaldi Highlands 1
Invermere 1
Kamloops 1
Kelowna 1
Vernon 1
Westbank 1
Williams Lake 1
TOTAL 0 0 1 3 0 0 1 2 0 0
% 0% 0% 14% 43% 0% 0% 14% 29% 0% 0%
50% DELEGATES 0 0 11 33 0 0 11 22 0 0

GREATER VANCOUVER (19 ridings)

PLACE BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Burnaby 1
Coquitlam 1 1
Delta 1
New Westminster 1 2 2
North Vancouver 1 2 1 1
Pitt Meadows 1
Richmond 1 1
Surrey 1 1
Vancouver 1 2 5 2 7 5 10 8 4 1
West Vancouver 1 1 1 1
TOTAL 2 5 8 3 9 6 18 11 5 1
% 3% 7% 12% 4% 13% 9% 26% 16% 7% 1%
50% DELEGATES 4 10 15 6 18 11 35 22 10 2

ALBERTA
SUMMARY (28 ridings)

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
TOTAL 0 28 7 2 0 6 88 64 2 5
% 0% 14% 3% 1% 0% 3% 44% 32% 1% 2%
50% DELEGATES 0 29 3 7 0 22 61 68 4 2

RURAL ALBERTA (12 ridings)

PLACE BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Anzac 2
Banff 2
Bragg Creek 1
Canmore 1
Chestermere 1
Cochrane 1
Cold Lake 1
Devon 1
Okotoks 1
Red Deer 1 1 1 2
Rocky Mtn House 1
TOTAL 0 2 0 0 0 3 4 8 0 0
% 0% 12% 0% 0% 0% 18% 24% 47% 0% 0%
50% DELEGATES 0 10 0 0 0 15 20 40 0 0

EDMONTON (8 ridings)

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
TOTAL 0 3 0 2 0 2 4 3 1 0
% 0% 20% 0% 13% 0% 13% 27% 20% 7% 0%
50% DELEGATES 0 11 0 7 0 7 15 11 4 0

CALGARY (8 ridings)

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
TOTAL 0 23 7 0 0 1 80 53 1 5
% 0% 14% 4% 0% 0% 1% 47% 31% 1% 3%
50% DELEGATES 0 7 2 0 0 1 26 18 1 2

MANITOBA
SUMMARY (14 ridings)

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
TOTAL 0 3 5 2 0 0 7 14 1 0
% 0% 9% 16% 6% 0% 0% 22% 44% 3% 0%
50% DELEGATES 0 7 17 7 0 0 16 48 3 0

RURAL MANITOBA (6 ridings)

PLACE BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Cartier 1
Brandon 1
Sainte-Anne 1
The Pas 5
TOTAL 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 5 0 0
% 0% 0% 25% 13% 0% 0% 0% 63% 0% 0%
50% DELEGATES 0 0 10 6 0 0 0 26 0 0

WINNIPEG (8 ridings)

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
TOTAL 0 3 3 1 0 0 7 9 1 0
% 0% 13% 13% 4% 0% 0% 29% 38% 4% 0%
50% DELEGATES 0 7 7 3 0 0 16 21 2 0

SASKATCHEWAN
SUMMARY (14 ridings)

PLACE BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Regina 1 3 5
Saskatoon 2 5
Zephyr 1
TOTAL 0 2 1 0 0 0 9 5 0 0
% 0% 12% 6% 0% 0% 0% 53% 29% 0% 0%
50% DELEGATES 0 11 6 0 0 0 52 29 0 0

NOVA SCOTIA
SUMMARY (11 ridings)

PLACE BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Antigonish 1
Bedford 2 1
Chester 1
Collingwood 1
Dartmouth 7 1
Enfield 1
Fall River 1
Falmouth 2
Glen Haven 1
Halifax 32 1 4 1
Hammonds Plains 2
St Margaret’s Bay 1
Kentville 1
Lakeside 1
Paradise 1
Sackville 1
Stillwater Lake 1
Truro 1
Upper Rawdon 1
Windsor 1
TOTAL 0 58 1 1 0 0 6 2 0 0
% 0% 85% 1% 1% 0% 0% 9% 3% 0% 0%
50% DELEGATES 0 65 1 1 0 0 7 3 0 0

NEW BRUNSWICK
SUMMARY (10 ridings)

PLACE BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Bloomfield 1
Black Point 1
Campbellton 1
Cap-Elle 1
Dieppe 3
Fredericton 1 2 1
Grand-Digue 1
Hatfield Point 1
Irishtown 1
Memramcook 1
Moncton 5 1 10
Pointe-du-Chen 3
Riverview 5
Shediac 1
Westcock 1
TOTAL 0 8 0 1 0 0 3 28 1 0
% 0% 20% 0% 2% 0% 0% 7% 68% 2% 0%
50% DELEGATES 0 13 0 2 0 0 5 48 2 0

NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR
SUMMARY (7 ridings)

PLACE BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Clarenceville 2
Musgravetown 1
TOTAL 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
50% DELEGATES 0 0 0 49 0 0 0 0 0 0

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
SUMMARY (4 ridings)

PLACE BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Charlottetown 7
Cardigan 1
Cornwall 1
Ellersie 1
TOTAL 0 1 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0
% 0% 10% 0% 80% 0% 0% 0% 10% 0% 0%
50% DELEGATES 0 3 0 22 0 0 0 3 0 0

NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
SUMMARY (1 riding)

PLACE BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Yellowknife 2
TOTAL 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
50% DELEGATES 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0

YUKON
SUMMARY (1 riding)

PLACE BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Whitehorse 2
TOTAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
50% DELEGATES 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0

NUNAVUT
SUMMARY (1 riding)

PLACE BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
Iqaluit 1
TOTAL 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
50% DELEGATES 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0

3. RIDING DELEGATES – MEMBERSHIP ANALYSIS

NEW MEMBERSHIPS (RAW DATA)
(46% OF MEMBERSHIP ANALYSIS)

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
ON 500 2000 4000 3500 50 750 10000 10000 4500 8000
QC 50 500 2500 500 20 100 4000 500 1200 4400
BC 30 200 1500 200 50 40 750 4000 3000 1000
AB 75 500 800 100 10 100 1200 1900 800 1200
MB 10 50 100 1500 5 20 1000 450 1500 100
SK 10 100 225 10 0 20 50 250 600 125
NS 25 750 100 75 0 25 350 300 250 125
NB 15 200 90 150 0 20 300 350 200 75
NL 5 15 10 30 0 5 60 60 75 40
PE 5 30 20 40 0 5 150 120 100 30
NT 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 3 0 0
YT 0 0 3 8 0 0 20 5 4 0
NU 0 2 1 1 0 0 3 2 1 0

NEW MEMBERSHIPS (PROVINCIAL SHARE)
(46% OF MEMBERSHIP ANALYSIS)

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
ON 1% 5% 9% 8% 0% 2% 23% 23% 10% 18%
QC 0% 4% 18% 4% 0% 1% 29% 4% 9% 32%
BC 0% 2% 14% 2% 0% 0% 7% 37% 28% 9%
AB 1% 7% 12% 1% 0% 1% 18% 28% 12% 18%
MB 0% 1% 2% 32% 0% 0% 21% 10% 32% 2%
SK 1% 7% 16% 1% 0% 1% 4% 18% 43% 9%
NS 1% 38% 5% 4% 0% 1% 18% 15% 13% 6%
NB 1% 14% 6% 11% 0% 1% 21% 25% 14% 5%
NL 2% 5% 3% 10% 0% 2% 20% 20% 25% 13%
PE 1% 6% 4% 8% 0% 1% 30% 24% 20% 6%
NT 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 0% 50% 30% 0% 0%
YT 0% 0% 8% 20% 0% 0% 50% 13% 10% 0%
NU 0% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% 30% 20% 10% 0%

EXISTING MEMBERSHIPS (PROVINCIAL SHARE)
(54% OF MEMBERSHIP ANALYSIS)

BENNETT BRISON DION DRYDEN FRY MHF IGGY GK RAE VOLPE
ON 2% 5% 12% 6% 1% 5% 24% 18% 18% 9%
QC 1% 7% 24% 5% 1% 4% 21% 8% 21% 8%
BC 1% 4% 12% 6% 6% 4% 27% 20% 16% 4%
AB 1% 12% 8% 8% 1% 8% 24% 20% 10% 8%
MB 1% 4% 8% 14% 1% 8% 28% 14% 16% 6%
SK 1% 6% 6% 6% 1% 6% 32% 18% 22% 2%
NS 1% 40% 5% 4% 1% 4% 20% 15% 8% 2%
NB 1% 12% 6% 5% 1% 3% 30% 20% 20% 2%
NL 1% 8% 6% 10% 1% 6% 18% 24% 18% 8%
PE 1% 12% 10% 10% 1% 6% 28% 16% 10% 6%
NT 1% 4% 4% 10% 1% 2% 30% 20% 26% 2%
YT 1% 4% 4% 10% 1% 2% 30% 20% 26% 2%
NU 1% 4% 4% 10% 1% 2% 30% 20% 26% 2%

4. EX-OFFICIO DELEGATES
About 37% of the Ex-Officio members have declared for a candidate. Wikipedia has a comprehensive list of the ex-officio declarations. I assume the remaining ex-officio members will distribute in roughly the same proportion as those who have declared. Here is the tally to date:

IGNATIEFF 136 33.3%
DION 75 18.3%
KENNEDY 59 14.4%
RAE 55 13.4%
DRYDEN 39 9.5%
BRISON 32 7.8%
VOLPE 6 1.5%
HALL-FINDLAY 4 1.0%
FRY 3 0.7%

5. WOMEN, STUDENT, SENIOR & ABORIGINAL DELEGATES
This is purely based on anecdotal evidence. We know that Ignatieff, Kennedy, Dion and Hall-Findlay are the strongest among the women’s clubs. Kennedy is probably strongest among the youth, with Ignatieff and Brison close behind. Ignatieff and Rae are likely strongest among Seniors. Brison did well about the aboriginal ex-officios, which bodes well for his support among aboriginal delegates, but it’s unlikely that these delegates will zero in on any one candidate.

1 Comment

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You are an incredible political junkie. Very good analysis and thank you for your exhaustive work.

I think there are a couple of things to consider for the next update:

1. I think you seriously underestimate Rae. He has Chretien’s team backing him and they know how to win. Kennedy, Dion, Iggy have all been bringing out ideas but Rae has been sitting back quietly, making sure he has no edges, just like Chretien has done.

More specifically, from the membership forms I’ve seen (LPCO allows campaigns to look at all forms once), you have seriously underestimated Rae’s strength in Ontario, seriously. I think Rae is actually equal to or possibly ahead of Iggy. From what I hear and read, the same could be said for Quebec, though your east and west analysis reflects what I am hearing and seeing.

2. I think you underplay the importance of the Gandalf polls and what they reveal. I don’t think they have much value since it really just reflects name recognition but even a bit matters in this race. Name recognition will factor in. Plus the boost of the poll to Dryden and Rae among undecideds, plus Bennett.

3. Not sure where exactly you put Bennett support. Unlike Bevilacqua they are more loyal despite the way she has handled this. She and Kennedy are very close personally as are a lot of local supporters, so I expect most but not all of her supporters will go Rae and a bunch will go Kennedy.

4. Finally, with seniors, hard to say. Look at the senator support: very evenly distributed, even Kennedy does well, but Rae is ahead.

Just some food for thought for the next update, which I will be waiting for keenly. Keep up the great work!

Ted
Cerberus

Comment/commentaire by Ted 09.18.06 @ 6:37 am

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