Filed under: Canadian Politics, - Liberal Party, - - 2006 Leadership
See FINAL PROJECTIONS HERE.
Update 3: Sept 17, 2006. This update includes 4 changes: 1) re-allocates Carolyn Bennett’s support, 2) new estimates for Atlantic Canada (since the donations list is too small to accurately reflect support), 3) updated ex-officio tallies, and 4) updates Michael Ignatieff’s tally to include July contributions (Note: The Ignatieff campaign has not published its July contributors. The party did not return Ignatieff’s contributions to the campaign before the July 31 deadline, allowing those contributors to be shielded from public view until after the delegate selection. I know they received 170 July contributions, but do not know the regional distribution. For this estimate I have apportioned those 170 proportional to its pre-July regional breakdown).
PROJECTED FIRST ROUND DELEGATES
| CANDIDATE | RIDINGS | EX-OFF. | WOMEN | STUDENT | SENIOR | ABOR’L | TOTAL | % |
| ESTIMATE | 4312 | 850 | 100 | 200 | 200 | 250 | 5912 | - |
| IGNATIEFF | 1183 | 283 | 20 | 40 | 50 | 50 | 1626 | 27.5% |
| KENNEDY | 659 | 123 | 20 | 60 | 30 | 40 | 932 | 15.8% |
| RAE | 649 | 114 | 10 | 20 | 50 | 36 | 879 | 14.9% |
| DION | 532 | 156 | 20 | 20 | 30 | 36 | 794 | 13.4% |
| BRISON | 325 | 67 | 5 | 40 | 10 | 40 | 487 | 8.2% |
| VOLPE | 448 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 476 | 8.1% |
| DRYDEN | 305 | 81 | 5 | 10 | 20 | 36 | 457 | 7.7% |
| HALL-FINDLAY | 173 | 8 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 215 | 3.6% |
| FRY | 38 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 46 | 0.8% |
RIDING DELEGATE BREAKDOWN (RAW DELEGATES)
| BRISON | DION | DRYDEN | FRY | MHF | IGNATIEFF | KENNEDY | RAE | VOLPE | |
| ON | 81 | 136 | 107 | 5 | 67 | 465 | 213 | 228 | 182 |
| QC | 65 | 240 | 39 | 3 | 15 | 265 | 75 | 183 | 165 |
| BC | 18 | 62 | 35 | 26 | 28 | 128 | 114 | 65 | 28 |
| AB | 46 | 22 | 17 | 1 | 32 | 106 | 99 | 35 | 34 |
| MB | 9 | 22 | 39 | 1 | 8 | 43 | 38 | 29 | 9 |
| SK | 13 | 16 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 56 | 36 | 42 | 10 |
| NS | 55 | 10 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 34 | 19 | 15 | 5 |
| NB | 20 | 12 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 34 | 32 | 21 | 4 |
| NL | 8 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 19 | 7 |
| PE | 7 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 3 |
| NT | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| YT | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| NU | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
SUMMARY
It is clear there are four tiers of candidates emerging. Accounting for his July contributions and updates to ex-officio delegates, Ignatieff (27.5%) has widened his lead on the rest of the field, opening up a 11.7% gap over the second candidate (Kennedy). The second tier of candidates (Kennedy, Rae, Dion) range from 13.4% to 15.8% — the order of these three remains in play. The third tier of candidates (Brison, Volpe, Dryden) range from 7.7% to 8.2% — and again, the order of these three remains in play. The fourth tier are candidates that will likely not make it past the first round (a minimum of 5% is required). These include Martha Hall-Findlay at 3.5% and Hedy Fry with 0.8%.
Methodology:
Ex-Officio delegates are estimated based on Wikipedia’s tally of Declared Ex-Officio supporters, pro-rated to 850 ex-officio delegates. Aboriginal, Student, Women and Senior Club delegates are estimated. Riding delegates are estimated using an regional analysis of memberships and contributions — 50% based on contributions (through July 31) and 50% based on memberships. Contributions were analyzed on a region-by-region basis using DemocraticSPACE’s 30 Canadian regions 1. Candidates were assigned delegates based on their share of the contributions for a given region 2. Membership estimates are based roughly on 50% new members signed up by the campaigns, and 50% existing member support (estimated). For complete details, see DETAILED BREAKDOWN.
NOTES
1 Regions: 8 in ON, 6 in QC, 3 in BC, 3 in AB, 2 in MB, 1 in all others.
2 Where contributions were too low in a given region, delegate assignments were estimated.
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