I believe that after the first ballot this race comes down to two camps: Ignatieff vs. Rae/Kennedy/Not Iggy. Rae and Kennedy supporters are of a similar idealogical mold. When the convention meets and the politicking of the 2nd Ballot begins - that Rae supporters will go to Kennedy or vice versa depending on which of the two candidates finishes ahead. I think Ignatieff supporters are very loyal to Mr. Ignatieff and given his projected lead I expect to see him until the final rounds of balloting.

Assuming the race does develop into a Ignatieff vs. Rae/Kennedy/Not Iggy race, where do you most of the Brison and Dion supporters go?

I see Brison and Ignatieff as idealogically closer and Dion is extremely loyal party in front politician. I can both men tell supporters to back Ignatieff in the latter rounds if (when?) they drop out.

Thoughts?

Two things that I don’t see considered, both having to do with whether or not the delegates actually attend the convention. I don’t know what the percentages would be, but I’d like to see an example breakdown assuming an inverse relationship between travel distance and likelihood of attendance, with a modifier according to the ordinal placing of the candidate.

Theory being, if you live far away, you’re less likely to attend - unless your candidate is in the running.

Ironically public poles on Canada-USA relations and the results of the US elections this fall, may have more to do with picking the most politically correct candidate for the post Bush era, than being politically correct at home.

Very good work.

I just want you to know that in BC Dion is sne of the strongest campaigns so that number needs a lot of updating. Take a look at any measurable number for BC and Dion comes out stronger than Iggy and alongside Kennedy and Rae. Memberships, Form 6’s, ExOfficio support, etc. etc.

Dryden is higher in the polls then you show here, I think he will do better then you expect. as for the others it seems pretty accurate, but dont underestimate rae’s support by the party machine traditionals.

Well, the race is more or less shaping up the way I thought it might.

But for women, it is a little sad to see that Carolyn Bennett threw in the towel, and both Martha Hall Findlay and Hedy Fry are so very far behind.

I personally think Martha Hall Findlay is running a stronger campaign than Volpe and Dryden…

But she is at least building a public profile for the future. She is doing so much better at this than Belinda Stronach did in her leadership bid for the Conservatives. It is ironic, isn’t it?

Louise M.