Busy week, so I’ve been slow to get this up. We had friends visiting from Boston over the holiday weekend (Canadian Thanksgiving/Columbus Day) — Canadian ex-patriates from Winnipeg and Vancouver. More evidence of the Great Infiltration! Being all architects, on Friday we took in some of the local sites, visiting Frank Lloyd Wright‘s Hollyhock House (1921) in Los Feliz, after enjoying one of my favourite local cafes, Figaro. It’s trendy and is often frequented by B-list types, but it reminds me of Montreal and they make a yummy cafe au lait et crepes au poulet.

Hollyhock House, Frank Lloyd Wright Los Feliz (Los Angeles)

Gamble House, Greene & Greene Architects, Pasadena

We went out to Pasadena on Saturday to see Greene & Greene‘s Gamble House (1908) and toodle about the town. And on Sunday, we had drinks on the Santa Monica pier, and of course, I had no trouble killing an hour at the amazing Hennessy & Ingalls bookstore on Wilshire, where I picked up a copy of L.A. Now vol 3-4, the product of UCLA‘s Research Studios. On Monday night, we went across the street to the Arclight to see The Last King of Scotland, which I recommend — Forest Whitaker is great and it was great to see Gillian Anderson (takes me back to watching X-Files when I lived in Montreal!). And yes, another celebrity sighting — Arclight is always reliable for that. Geoffrey Rush (of Pirates of the Carribean fame) was buying tickets beside us, wearing a groovy, spotted jacket (and no, he’s not a member of Arclight — shame on him!).

With 39 of 39 meetings reporting, Gerard Kennedy has won the province of Alberta, edging out Michael Ignatieff, who was second, and Stephane Dion, who was third. Click HERE for complete results.

The Yukon Party won a majority government in Yukon’s Territorial Election today. They captured 10 of the 18 seats with 40% of the vote; the Liberals won 5 seats on 35% of the vote and the NDP won 3 seats on 23% of the vote. The Yukon Party and Liberals each picked up one seat, with the NDP retaining 3 seats. There had previously been 2 independents. Turnout of the 18,659 eligible voters was 72%.

LINKS
Oct 10 — “Yukon Votes”
Oct 10 — “Riding Results”
Oct 10 — “Yukon Party gets majority with 10 seats”
Oct 10 — “All Yukon Party cabinet ministers re-elected”
Oct 10 — “Nordick wins Klondike riding”
Oct 10 — “‘Hound dogs’ didn’t vote for Elvis”
Oct 10 — “3 Yukon leaders re-elected”
Oct 10 — “2 out of 17 women win seats”

TÉLÉCHARGER / DOWNLOAD PDF	24 SEPT 2006
	PQ	PLQ	ADQ	QS	PVQ
%	37,2%	35,2%	15,4%	6,6%	5,6%
SIÈGES / SEATS	69	47	9	0	0
2003 ELECTION	45	76	4	-	0

La semaine dernière, la firme de sondage CROP-La Presse a publié un nouveau sondage dans lequel le PLQ et le PQ sont à égalité à 37 %. La moyenne pondérée des cinq derniers sondages place le PQ avec une mince avance à 37,2 % suivi du PLQ à 35,2 %, l’ADQ à 15,4 %, Québec solidaire à 6,6 % puis le Parti vert à 5,6 %. Lorsqu’on transpose ces résultats dans le cadre du modèle de projection, le PQ obtient 5 sièges de moins par rapport à la dernière mise à jour. Le PLQ profite légèrement de sa remontée avec 4 sièges supplémentaires alors que l’ADQ en obtient un de plus. Les lecteurs ne doivent pas oublier que ce sont des projections qui ne tiennent pas compte, pour le moment, des variations régionales.

***

Last week, CROP-La Presse published a new poll that shows the PLQ and PQ statistically tied at 37% each. The rolling average of the last five polls shows PQ 37.2%, PLQ 35.2%, ADQ, 15.4%, Quebec Solidaire 6.6%, Green Party 5.6%. When input into the projection model, the PQ drop 5 seats from update #2, with the PLQ picking up 4 and ADQ picking up 1. Readers should be aware that this is a straight-line projection, and does not yet adjust for regional variations among Quebec’s 9 regions.

(Translation provided by Vincent Robidas. Our thanks go out to him.)

HOW THE LIBERAL PARTY CAN WIN THE NEXT ELECTION
ONTARIO, NOT QUEBEC, KEY TO LIBERAL SUCCESS

Contrary to popular belief, the fortunes of the Liberal Party in the next election are less dependent on their success in Quebec and more dependent on their success in English Canada (particularly Ontario). An analysis of Canada’s 308 ridings illustrates that only about one-third (113 ridings) are battleground ridings for the Liberals. These are ridings in which the Liberals won or lost by a margin or 15% or less. It may come as a surprise to some that 85% of these competitive ridings are in English Canada and just 15% are in Quebec. This translates into 60 seats that the Liberals can reasonably re-take in the near future — 50 of which are in English Canada and just 10 in Quebec. Coupled with 50 safe Liberal seats, the Liberals could win a narrow majority if they won all 113 close ridings and could win a narrow minority by taking about two-thirds of the seats.

There is little doubt that the Liberal Party must re-invent itself in Quebec; but the damage to the Party’s credibility in Quebec because of the sponsorship scandal will take years to undo, not months, and certainly not in time for the next election (which could happen as early as next spring). Thus, with so few Quebec seats up-for-grabs — 10 at most — it is clear that English Canada, and Ontario specifically hold the key to the Liberals’ electoral fortunes in the next election.

The chart below summarizes how many ridings in each region are safe, up-for-grabs and beyond reach for the Liberals.

TABLE 1: RIDING BREAKDOWN BY REGION
Act.= actual ridings won in 2006, Min. = minimum winnable ridings; Max. = maximum winnable ridings

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With 18 of 18 meetings reporting, Michael Ignatieff has carried the province of Saskatchewan, beating out Bob Rae who was second, and Gerard Kennedy who was third. Ignatieff has won Atlantic Canada overall, New Brunswick, the Northwest Territories, and the Yukon. Click HERE for complete results.

SUPER WEEKEND LIBERAL DELEGATE RESULTS
IGNATIEFF LEADS, BUT REMAINS VULNERABLE

Updated: 19 Oct; 458 of 471 meetings reporting.

With 458 of 471 meetings reporting, as expected, Michael Ignatieff won the most delegates, with Bob Rae 2nd, Gerard Kennedy 3rd and Stephane Dion 4th. Ignatieff’s campaign is surely pleased with the results; however, since his 3 main rivals also did well, and those from whom he was counting on second ballot support (Dryden and Brison) underperformed, Ignatieff remains vulnerable heading into the Liberal convention.

LINKS
Oct 19 — “Rae Wins British Columbia; Kennedy 2nd, Dion 3rd”
Oct 12 — “Liberal Leadership First Ballot Estimate”
Oct 12 — “Kennedy Wins Alberta; Ignatieff 2nd, Dion 3rd”
Oct 4 — “Ignatieff Wins Saskatchewan; Rae 2nd, Kennedy 3rd”
Oct 2 — “Riding-by-Riding Delegate Results”
Oct 2 — “Live-Blogging: Meeting-by-Meeting Tracking of Delegate Results”
Oct 2 — “Ignatieff Wins Atlantic Canada; Rae 2nd, Brison 3rd”
Oct 2 — “Ignatieff Wins New Brunswick; Rae, Dion 2nd”
Oct 1 — “How are the Candidates Doing? Day Two.”
Oct 1 — “Brison Wins Nova Scotia; Ignatieff 2nd”
Oct 1 — “Ignatieff Wins the Yukon; Kennedy, Rae 2nd”
Oct 1 — “Ignatieff Wins Northwest Territories; Rae 2nd”
Oct 1 — “Bob Rae Wins Prince Edward Island; Kennedy 2nd”
Oct 1 — “Bob Rae Wins Newfoundland & Labrador”
Sept 30 — “How are the Candidate Doing? Day One.”
Sept 29 — “Final Liberal Leadership Delegate Predictions”
Sept 29 — “Delegate Prediction Methodology”

We’re opening up the floor to anyone who attended Liberal Leadership delegate election meetings today or yesterday. Feel free to report who was elected and/or how many each leadership candidate won in your riding by LEAVING A COMMENT BELOW or SEND US AN EMAIL. We will summarize into tables for convenience. ALL RESULTS REPORTS WILL BE ANONYMOUS.

Note: means listed numbers are complete for that that riding, club, or commission.

RIDING DELEGATES

	Riding	UNDEC.	BRISON	DION	DRYDEN	MHF	IGNATIEFF	KENNEDY	RAE	VOLPE
	Abbotsford (BC)			1			1	3	3	6
	Acadie-Bathurst (NB)	1		1			11		1
	Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough (ON)		1	1	1		4	3	3	1
	Beausejour (NB)		1	2	5		2		4
	Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound (ON)			4	1		3	3	2
	Burlington (ON)		1	3	1		2	4	3	2
	Calgary-Nose Hill (AB)			1			3	7	1	2
	Calgary Southwest (AB)			4			5	4	1
	Cape Breton-Canso (NS)		2				12
	Cardigan (PE)				1		1		12
	Central Nova (NS)	1	4	1	1		5	1
	Chatham-Kent-Essex (ON)			2			6	3	2	1
	Charlottetown (PE)		1	3	2		2	1	5
	Cumberland-Colchester (NS)		9	1	1		2		1
	Dartmouth-Cole Harbour (NS)	1	8	1	1		2		1
	Dufferin-Caledon (ON)				1		2	7	4
	Edmonton-Strathcona (AB)			3	1	1	2	6	1
	Edmonton-Sherwood Park (AB)		1	1		1	8	2	1
	Egmont (PE)				1		5	7	1
	Elgin-Middlesex-London (ON)				1		2	7	4
	Elmwood-Transcona (MB)		1	1	1		2	1	8
	Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca (BC)			1			4	1	3	4
	Etobicoke Centre (ON)						1	12	1
	Etobicoke-Lakeshore (ON)			1			7	5	1
	Etobicoke North (ON)						4	3		7
	Fleetwood-Port Kells (BC)			2			4	1	3	4
	Fredericton (NB)	1	1		3		5	1	2
	Fundy-Royal (NB)		3		1		4	5	1
	Guelph (ON)		1	2	2		2	4	3
	Haldimand-Norfolk (ON)	3		2	2			2	1	4
	Halifax (NS)		4	1	2		5	1	1
	Halifax West (NS)		2	1	1		9	1
	Halton (ON)			1			4	7	1	1
	Hamilton Centre (ON)		3	1	1		2	5	1	1
	Hamilton East-Stoney Creek (ON)		1		2		2	7	1	1
	Hamilton Mountain (ON)			1	3		3	5	1	1
	Huron-Bruce (ON)	1	2	2	1			4	2
	Kelowna-Lake Country (BC)			2			1	7	1	3
	Kildonan-St. Paul (MB)		1		1		2	1	9
	Kings-Hants (NS)		14
	Kingston & the Islands (ON)			3	1	1	3	3	3
	Kitchener-Centre (ON)						2	7	5
	Kitchener-Conestoga (ON)			2			1	6	5
	Kitchener-Waterloo (ON)			1			1	7	5
	Labrador (NL)				1		10	1	2
	Lambton-Kent-Middlesex (ON)				1			10	3
	Lanark-Frontenac-L&A (ON)			2	2		2	2	6
	Langley (BC)			1			1	4	3	4
	Lethbridge (AB)	1		4	1	1		3
	London-Fanshawe (ON)			1	1		1	7	2	2
	London-North Centre (ON)	1		1			5	5	2
	London-West (ON)	1		4	2		3	2	2
	Madawaska-Restigouche (NB)						9		5
	Malpeque (PE)				1		5	1	7
	Miramichi (NB)	1	1	7	2		1		2
	Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe (NB)		1	1	1		3	5	3
	N.B. Southwest (NB)		4	4	1		5
	Newmarket-Aurora (ON)	4	1	1		1	2	3	2
	Newton-North Delta (BC)			2			10		2
	Niagara Falls (ON)				3		5	3	2	1
	North Vancouver (BC)			5	2		2	1	4
	NDG-Lachine (QC)			8			2	1	2
	Ottawa Centre (ON)		1	2	2		5	1	3
	Parry Sound-Muskoka (ON)			1		1	3	4	5
	Perth-Wellington (ON)	1				2	2	6	3
	Peterborough (ON)					2	2	8
	Prince Edwards-Hastings (ON)			1			6	3	4
	Richmond Hill (ON)			4			3	3	3	1
	Sackville-Eastern Shore (NS)		8		1		4	1
	Saint John (NB)		1	3	1		8	1
	Sault Ste Marie (ON)			1	1		11		1
	Simcoe-Grey (ON)			1	1	4	6	1	1
	South Shore-St. Margaret’s (NS)		2	4	2		4	1	1
	South Surrey-White Rock (BC)			4			2		6	2
	Surrey North (BC)			1			3	4	2	4
	Tobique-Mactaquac (NB)	1	1	3	1		2	1	5
	Trinity-Spadina (ON)	3		2			4	1	3	1
	Victoria (BC)			6	1		3	1	3
	Welland (ON)		1		1		9	2	1
	West Nova (NS)		3	1			9	1
	Windsor-Tecumseh (ON)			1			11	1	1
	Windsor West (ON)	2		3			5	3	1
	Winnipeg Centre (MB)		1	2	4		2	2	3
	Winnipeg South-Centre (MB)		2	1	5		2	2	2
	TOTAL TO DATE	23	87	137	76	12	320	247	206	46

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Despite finishing 2nd in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland & Labrador, and 3rd in Prince Edward Island, a very strong result in New Brunswick allowed Michael Ignatieff to win the most delegates in Atlantic Canada. With 79 of 79 meetings reporting, Ignatieff captured almost one-third of the region. Despite a terrible showing in Nova Scotia (2.2%), Bob Rae finished second. Scott Brison, despite terrible showings in Newfoundland & Labrador (0%) and Prince Edward Island (1.5%), and average support in New Brunswick (9.5%), finished third across the region on the strength of his strong showing in his home province of Nova Scotia (39.9%).

With 33 of 33 meetings reporting, Michael Ignatieff has won his first province, and third region, winning the most delegates from New Brunswick. Ignatieff had previously won the Yukon and the Northwest Territories.