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Super Weekend Liberal Delegate Results
Monday October 02nd 2006, 9:21 am
Filed under: Canadian Politics, - Liberal Party, - - 2006 Leadership

SUPER WEEKEND LIBERAL DELEGATE RESULTS
IGNATIEFF LEADS, BUT REMAINS VULNERABLE

Updated: 19 Oct; 458 of 471 meetings reporting.

With 458 of 471 meetings reporting, as expected, Michael Ignatieff won the most delegates, with Bob Rae 2nd, Gerard Kennedy 3rd and Stephane Dion 4th. Ignatieff’s campaign is surely pleased with the results; however, since his 3 main rivals also did well, and those from whom he was counting on second ballot support (Dryden and Brison) underperformed, Ignatieff remains vulnerable heading into the Liberal convention.

CANDIDATE DELEGATES %
1. MICHAEL IGNATIEFF 1379 29.0%
2. BOB RAE 949 20.0%
3. GERARD KENNEDY 817 17.2%
4. STÉPHANE DION 770 16.2%
5. KEN DRYDEN 244 5.1%
6. JOE VOLPE 230 4.8%
7. SCOTT BRISON 185 3.9%
8. UNDECLARED 133 2.8%
9. MARTHA HALL FINDLAY 42 0.9%

LINKS
Oct 19 — “Rae Wins British Columbia; Kennedy 2nd, Dion 3rd”
Oct 12 — “Liberal Leadership First Ballot Estimate”
Oct 12 — “Kennedy Wins Alberta; Ignatieff 2nd, Dion 3rd”
Oct 4 — “Ignatieff Wins Saskatchewan; Rae 2nd, Kennedy 3rd”
Oct 2 — “Riding-by-Riding Delegate Results”
Oct 2 — “Live-Blogging: Meeting-by-Meeting Tracking of Delegate Results”
Oct 2 — “Ignatieff Wins Atlantic Canada; Rae 2nd, Brison 3rd”
Oct 2 — “Ignatieff Wins New Brunswick; Rae, Dion 2nd”
Oct 1 — “How are the Candidates Doing? Day Two.”
Oct 1 — “Brison Wins Nova Scotia; Ignatieff 2nd”
Oct 1 — “Ignatieff Wins the Yukon; Kennedy, Rae 2nd”
Oct 1 — “Ignatieff Wins Northwest Territories; Rae 2nd”
Oct 1 — “Bob Rae Wins Prince Edward Island; Kennedy 2nd”
Oct 1 — “Bob Rae Wins Newfoundland & Labrador”
Sept 30 — “How are the Candidate Doing? Day One.”
Sept 29 — “Final Liberal Leadership Delegate Predictions”
Sept 29 — “Delegate Prediction Methodology”


3 Comments/commentaires
Leave a comment/Enregistrer un commentaire

Thanks for your work Greg. I think that, as well as the bottom candidate being dropped, so too any candidate getting less than 5% is dropped.Is that correct. If that is true, than the first ballot Friday may eliminate 4 candidates. The real balloting starting Saturday may be quickly over.

Comment/commentaire by Peter Cassidy 10.02.06 @ 11:30 am

I would seriously doubt that Mr. Ignatieff was counting on any support from Dryden delegates. Brison , perhaps. Dryden, the most progressive of all the candidates, not a snowball’s chance in hell of Dryden delegates going to Iggy.

Comment/commentaire by shoshanaberman 10.02.06 @ 12:14 pm

Good work on the anaysis and predictions. Sorry for using your earlier numbers for my comparisons of the blogger’s predictive abilities but it is all fixed now.

Again, my apologies for doubting your predictive abilities :-)

gpm

Comment/commentaire by Giant Political Mouse 10.03.06 @ 8:14 am



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