From our detailed analysis of the riding-by-riding delegate results, we have found that the Liberal leadership race is much closer among winnable ridings — Ignatieff has 26.1%, Rae 21.4%, Kennedy 20.5% (and Dion dropped back to 13.5%). Here, we take a close look at the 60 battleground ridings in which the Liberals narrowly lost (i.e. lost by less than a 15% margin). These 60 ridings are the key to the Liberal fortunes in the next election. Here are the number of delegates for each candidate in those 60 battleground ridings — it is important to emphasize that these numbers are objective; they simply represent a tally of how each candidate fared in ridings in which the Liberals lost by 15% (i.e. ridings which can reasonably be won in the next election).

	IGNATIEFF	RAE	KENNEDY	DION	VOLPE	DRYDEN	BRISON	MHF	UNDEC.
BATTLEGROUNDS	25.0%	23.2%	22.1%	14.6%	4.5%	5.6%	1.9%	1.0%	2.2%
OVERALL	29.7%	20.3%	17.4%	16.7%	5.4%	4.4%	3.0%	0.7%	2.4%
CHANGE	-4.7%	+2.9%	+4.7%	-2.1%	-0.9%	+1.2%	-1.1%	+0.3%	-0.2%

ANALYSIS
Among the 60 key battleground ridings, the race is very different from the overall results. While Michael Ignatieff holds a near 10-point lead over Bob Rae and near 13-point lead over Gerard Kennedy, among the 60 ridings in which the next election will be won or lost, it is a close 3-way race between the three. Less than 3 points separate the three candidates; Ignatieff has 25.0% support, Rae has 23.2% and Kennedy has 22.1%. As we noted in our review of winnable ridings, delegate results should not be taken as a barometer of support with the overall electorate, but it may indicate an ability to mobilize the Liberal base in battleground ridings. This is good news for Bob Rae, who received 2.9 points higher in battleground ridings, and is especially good news for Gerard Kennedy, who received 4.7 points higher. But the news is bad for Michael Ignatieff, who received 4.7 points lower in battleground ridings and Stephane Dion, who received 2.1 points lower. So for Liberals who are concerned about electability in the next election, this analysis suggests that there are three candidates with similar support in key ridings.