DOWNLOAD PDF	15 FEB 2007
	LIB	PC	NDP	GRN	OTH
% SUPPORT	38.7%	34.5%	18.2%	5.0%	1.3%
TOTAL SEATS	53	42	12	0	0
2003 ELECTION	72	24	7	0	0

With party nomination races starting to kick into gear, the Liberals hold a slight edge over the PCs, according to the latest DemocraticSPACE projections (important note: projections are not predictions; the only DemocraticSPACE prediction will be the last projection, on the eve of the October 10 election, so stay tuned to DemocraticSPACE for updates. The current projection reflects where things stand today and today only). Based on a rolling weighted average of the last 5 polls (from Nov 26 to Feb 15), the Liberals are projected at 38.7% support, the PCs have 34.5%, the NDP has 18.2%, the Greens have 5.0% and all others have 1.3%. This translates into 53 seats for the Liberals (1 short of a majority), 42 for the PCs and 12 for the NDP.

Of Ontario’s 107 ridings, 29 (27%) are currently in our “too close too call” category (5% or less margin of victory) and 14 (13%) are in our “tight race” category (5-10% margin), making 43 ridings (40%) of the ridings competitive. The remaining 60% are currently considered safe seats. Some regions are more competitive than others — for example nearly three-quarters (16 of 22) in our Peel-Halton and York-Durham ridings are within 10%, setting up the 905 as the key battleground. By contrast, 9 of 11 Northern seats are currently safe (Nipissing and Algoma-Manitoulin are the two competitive ridings). Likewise 7 of 9 Central Ontario seats are currently safe (Peterborough and Northumberland are the two competitive ridings).

Stay tuned to DemocraticSPACE for the latest updates as new polls are released. If you would like to report confirmed nominated candidates, please email us or leave a comment in the appropriate riding page, which are available from the drop-down menu from the Ontario 2007 Homepage)

Note: as this early stage, our projections do not account for individual candidates. The model will be adjusted once all candidates are known. Also, since we are well in advance of the campaign, polling data is still spread out over a long period of time; as we near the campaign, these polls will increase in frequency, and the reliability of the projections will increase accordingly.