TÉLÉCHARGER / DOWNLOAD PDF	10 FEV 2006
	PQ	PLQ	ADQ	QS	PVQ
%	34,6%	35,1%	18.3%	5,4%	6,6%
SIÈGES / SEATS	62	51	12	0	0
2003 ELECTION	45	76	4	-	0

This represents a major update to the projection model. Unlike the previous updates, which were “straight-line” projections — that is, assuming the change in support was uniform across the province — this update incorporates regional factors. This accounts for the differences between different regions of Québec, based on historical data. For example, if the Liberals drop 10 points across the province, we should expect this drop to be less significant in West Montreal, and more significant in, for example, Northern Québec. Similarly, a rise in the PQ across the province is likely to be felt more in East Montreal, than for example, the Québec City region, where the ADQ performs well. This level of refinement improves the accuracy of the projections.

Lately, we have witnessed a significant bounce for the PLQ, at the expense of the PQ. The Liberals now have a slight lead the 5-poll rolling average support. However, because of the distribution of that support (and our winner-takes-all electoral system), the PQ still has a seat advantage. The trend shows considerably tightening, however, leading to the possibility of having Québec’s first minority government (since 1878) — which could have the preverse effect of granting the PQ a minority government, despite more Québecers voting for the Liberals. The current projection gives the PQ 62 seats, one short of a majority. Of Québec’s 125 seats, 50 (40%) are competitive while 75 (60%) can be considered at the moment “safe” seats for the incumbent; while 60% safe seats sounds high, it is actually slightly lower than a typical federal election, where about 65% of seats are safe.

These 50 competitive seats are, in general, spread out across the province but some regions will be more tightly fought than others — here is a summary by region of the 50 most competitive ridings (note the government of Québec uses 17 administrative regions; since many of these are too small to be a polling region, we have consolidated these into 10 regions):

West Montréal (3)
Verdun, Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne, Outremont

East Montréal (3)
Laurier-Dorion, Crémazie, Anjou

Laval-Lanaudière (7)
Milles-îles, Vimont, Laval-des-rapides, Fabre, Mirabel, Groulx, Deux-montagnes

Montérégie (6)
Soulanges, Châteauguay, La Prairie, Saint-Jean, Chambly, Marguerite-D’Youville

Centre-du-Québec (3)
Champlain, Trois-Rivières, Maskinongé

Outaouais-Laurentides (1)
Berthier

Nord-du-Québec (6)
Abiti-Est, Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue, René-Lévesque, Dubuc, Roberval, Jonquière

Bas-Saint-Laurent-Gaspésie (4)
Kamouraska-Témiscouata, Montmagny-L’Islet, Bellechasse, Beauce-Sud

Estrie (7)
Orford, Saint-François, Sherbrooke, Mégantic-Compton, Shefford, Arthabaska, Frontenac

Capitale-Nationale (10)
Jean-Talon, Louis-Hébert, Vanier, Jean-Lesage, Charlesbourg, La Peltrie, Portneuf, Chaveau, Montmorency, Lévis

Another trend that is becoming apparent is the support for smaller parties, notably Québec Solidaire and the Green Party of Québec. The upcoming election could produce a significantly distorted election, with 1 in 8 voters overall going unrepresented and many others under-represented. The PQ, with less than 35% of the vote, could capture nearly 50% of the vote. For example, in the current update, the following share of voters would go unrepresented:

West Montréal — 36%
East Montréal — 27%
Laval-Lanaudière — 28%
Montérégie — 28%
Centre-du-Québec — 35%
Outaouais-Laurentides — 29%
Nord-du-Québec — 30%
Bas-Saint-Laurent-Gaspésie — 11%
Estrie — 11%
Capitale-Nationale — 12%

Such a distorted result would undoubtedly increase the call for electoral reform. So the most significant outcome of the next Québec election could be not a new government, but rather, a new way in which votes are counted.