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16 AUG 2007
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LIB
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PC
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NDP
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GRN
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OTH
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% SUPPORT
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39.1%
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36.8%
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18.2%
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4.4%
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1.5%
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TOTAL SEATS
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51
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45
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11
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0
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0
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2003 ELECTION
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72
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24
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7
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0
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0
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Just on the heals of the Strategic Counsel polling ending August 14, a new poll by Ipsos-Reid ending August 16 confirms Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals gaining momentum, according to the latest DemocraticSPACE PROJECTIONS. Note: readers should use caution when interpreting these very early projections, as polling data is sparse and we have not yet accounted for individual candidates (we will make adjustments once all candidates are nominated, and we anticipate the frequency of polls to increase in the coming weeks). Currently, DemocraticSPACE projects the Liberals with 51 seats on support of 39.1%, the PCs with 45 seats on support of 36.8%, and the NDP with 11 seats on support of 18.2%. Greens and others gather 5.9% support and no seats. All support levels have a margin of error of +/- 1.53% based on a weighted average of the last 5 polls (between 10 June and 16 August).
The Liberals advantage is by the narrowest of margins. Over 1 in 5 ridings in the province are too close to call, with another 1 in 10 leaning to one party by an slim margin, making nearly 1 in 3 ridings in the province extremely close.
DOWNLOAD RIDING-BY-RIDING PROJECTIONS
Among the changes from the previous update are:
| BRAMALEA-GORE-MALTON | ![]() |
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| LONDON-FANSHAWE | ![]() |
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| OAKVILLE | ![]() |
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| OTTAWA WEST-NEPEAN | ![]() |
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For more details, see our ONTARIO 2007 COVERAGE.
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