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Ontario Election Update 12: Liberals with Momentum
Tuesday August 21st 2007, 3:25 pm
Filed under: Canadian Politics, - 2007 ON Election

16 AUG 2007
LIB
PC
NDP
GRN
OTH
% SUPPORT
39.1%
36.8%
18.2%
4.4%
1.5%
TOTAL SEATS
51
45
11
0
0
2003 ELECTION
72
24
7
0
0

Just on the heals of the Strategic Counsel polling ending August 14, a new poll by Ipsos-Reid ending August 16 confirms Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals gaining momentum, according to the latest DemocraticSPACE PROJECTIONS. Note: readers should use caution when interpreting these very early projections, as polling data is sparse and we have not yet accounted for individual candidates (we will make adjustments once all candidates are nominated, and we anticipate the frequency of polls to increase in the coming weeks). Currently, DemocraticSPACE projects the Liberals with 51 seats on support of 39.1%, the PCs with 45 seats on support of 36.8%, and the NDP with 11 seats on support of 18.2%. Greens and others gather 5.9% support and no seats. All support levels have a margin of error of +/- 1.53% based on a weighted average of the last 5 polls (between 10 June and 16 August).

The Liberals advantage is by the narrowest of margins. Over 1 in 5 ridings in the province are too close to call, with another 1 in 10 leaning to one party by an slim margin, making nearly 1 in 3 ridings in the province extremely close.

DOWNLOAD RIDING-BY-RIDING PROJECTIONS

Among the changes from the previous update are:

BRAMALEA-GORE-MALTON
LONDON-FANSHAWE
OAKVILLE
OTTAWA WEST-NEPEAN

For more details, see our ONTARIO 2007 COVERAGE.


5 Comments/commentaires
Leave a comment/Enregistrer un commentaire

Thankfully the Liberls are on the way up once more …There is going to be a lot of swing voters switching from the ndp and the green party in favour of the liberals as the time gets closer as decidedly the liberal party platform is the one can most believe in. The city has done well under the Liberals, yes taxes are up, but thats a small price to pay to keep health care going pvt, and keeping the educationial system primed and working well. Would the people of ontario want to see the Pc party win and reverse all the progress that has been made? I think not, in fact I am certian of it.

Comment/commentaire by bomi daver 08.31.07 @ 1:43 pm

We all have to be realists in todays day and age.
I would say all in all the Liberals have done a decent job of governing and getting things back on track.( we are still not there) The consertives slashed the health care system , amputating both its legs and arms, The Liberals on the other hand have managed to get things back on the right track once more. I dont think the people of Ontario will derail their train before it pulls into the station on October the 10th. The liberal party platform is the only one that is realistic and one that could be achieved in time.

Comment/commentaire by maggie Davis 08.31.07 @ 1:49 pm

Since the Green Party has achieved critical mass, their numbers should be broken out although I appreciate the margin of error could be high.
Under proportional representation, their support would double at the expense of all three of the other major parties.

Comment/commentaire by David Januczkowski 09.13.07 @ 2:28 pm

David - unfortunately, Elections Ontario’s published transposition of votes table (note: Excel file) — i.e. how the 2003 votes are distributed into the new 107 ridings — did not include numbers for the Green Party. Therefore, we cannot make projections for the new ridings. We made numerous attempts to obtain this information from Elections Ontario, but they would not provide the Green Party re-distributed numbers.

Comment/commentaire by democraticspace 09.13.07 @ 3:07 pm

Does anyone else have anything to say about the referendum being run along with the provincial election. My understanding is that this will result in an additional 20 or so seats in the legislature. Who will pay for these additional seats if it passes. Will the current MPPs spl;it the same money now being earned or will we, taxpayers, now be on the line to pay 20 or so additional MPPs salary so they can retire if=n six years when(not if) they lose the next election. So much for any tax relief for the middle class if this referendum is passed by voters.

Comment/commentaire by Roger 10.01.07 @ 4:10 pm



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