Liberal/PC Deadlocked in Support
With a month to go before the official launch of the fall election campaign in Ontario, John Tory’s Progressive Conservatives have the edge, according to the latest projections by DemocraticSPACE’s ONTARIO 2007 coverage. Readers should use caution when interpreting these early projections, since just five polls have been conducted since April 3 and none since June 30. As the frequency of polls increases and after all candidates have been nominated (after which we can make adjustments for local candidates), the accuracy of the projections will increase. In general, however, we have seen little movement in the POLLS for over a year, with the Liberals and Tories deadlocked in the 37% range, the NDP near 20% and the Greens and other smaller parties garnering around 5-6% collectively.

PC Edge in Seat Projections
Despite the statistical tie, due to the distribution of votes and the winner-take-all nature of our current electoral system, the Tories have the edge (however tenuous) in PROJECTED SEATS. At present (for polls through June 30), DemocraticSPACE is projecting the PCs with 52 seats (a minority government), the Liberals with 44 seats and the NDP with 11 seats (important note: projections are not predictions — they merely reflect the current state of affairs based on the latest polling information. Stay tuned to DemocraticSPACE for the latest UPDATES).

Riding-by-Riding Projections
CLICK HERE FOR CURRENT RIDING-BY-RIDING PROJECTIONS

Clear Regional Trends
Toronto and Northern Ontario remain Liberals strongholds, with 13 of 22 seats projecting for Dalton McGuity’s government in the provincial capital, while 6 of 11 seats project their way in the North. Central Ontario (from Dufferin to Peterborough) is heavily PC, with all 9 ridings projecting for John Tory’s team. The 905, considered the key battleground, is currently leaning heavily towards the Progressive Conservatives with 17 of 22 ridings projected as PC (albeit many are simply too close to call). The Hamilton-Niagara region is a 3-way race between all 3 major parties. Southwestern and Eastern Ontario are roughly split between PC and Liberal.

Many Close Ridings
DemocraticSPACE classifies each riding into one of 4 categories: SAFE (20%+ margin of victory), COMFORTABLE (10-20% margin), TIGHT (5-10% margin) and LEANING (5% or less margin). Currently, 45 ridings (42%) are competitive (either TIGHT or LEANING), while 62 ridings (58%) are non-competitive (either COMFORTABLE or SAFE). Here is a breakdown of the current projections:

Battleground Ridings
Here is a complete list of the 45 competitive ridings (click on riding name to leave comment):

* = most competitive (“LEANING”)

North
*ALGOMA-MANITOULIN – leaning LIBERAL (over NDP)
*NIPISSING – leaning PC (over LIBERAL)
SAULT STE. MARIE – tight LIBERAL (over NDP)

Central
*NORTHUMBERLAND-QUINTE WEST – leaning PC (over LIBERAL)
*PETERBOROUGH – leaning PC (over LIBERAL)

East-Ottawa
LANARK-FRONTENAC-LENNOX & ADDINGTON – tight PC (over LIBERAL)
OTTAWA CENTRE – tight LIBERAL (over NDP and PC)
*OTTAWA-ORLEANS – leaning PC (over LIBERAL)
OTTAWA WEST-NEPEAN – tight PC (over LIBERAL)
*PRINCE EDWARD HASTINGS – leaning LIBERAL (over PC)
*STORMONT-DUNDAS-SOUTH GLENGARRY – leaning LIBERAL (over PC)

Hamilton-Niagara
*ANCASTER-DUNDAS-FLAMBOROUGH-WESTDALE – leaning LIBERAL (over PC)
*BRANT – tight LIBERAL (over PC)
HAMILTON CENTRE – tight NDP (over LIBERAL)
*HAMILTON EAST-STONEY CREEK – leaning LIBERAL (over NDP)
HAMILTON MOUNTAIN – tight LIBERAL (over NDP)
*NIAGARA FALLS – leaning PC (over LIBERAL)

Southwestern
*ESSEX – leaning LIBERAL (over NDP)
*GUELPH – leaning PC (over LIBERAL)
HURON-BRUCE – tight PC (over LIBERAL)
KITCHENER CENTRE – tight PC (over LIBERAL)
*LAMBTON–KENT–MIDDLESEX – leaning PC (over LIBERAL)
*LONDON-FANSHAWE – leaning NDP (over PC and LIBERAL)
*LONDON NORTH CENTRE – leaning LIBERAL (over PC and NDP)
LONDON WEST – tight LIBERAL (over PC)
*SARNIA-LAMBTON – leaning LIBERAL (over PC)
WINDSOR-TECUMSEH – tight LIBERAL (over NDP)

York-Durham
NEWMARKET-AURORA – tight PC (over LIBERAL)
*OSHAWA – leaning PC (over NDP)
*PICKERING-SCARBOROUGH EAST – leaning PC (over LIBERAL)
WHITBY-OSHAWA – tight PC (over LIBERAL)

Peel-Halton
BRAMALEA-GORE-MALTON – tight PC (over LIBERAL)
*BRAMPTON-SPRINGDALE – leaning PC (over LIBERAL)
BURLINGTON - tight PC (over LIBERAL)
*MISSISSAUGA-BRAMPTON SOUTH – leaning PC (over LIBERAL)
*MISSISSAUGA EAST-COOKSVILLE – leaning PC (over LIBERAL)
*MISSISSAUGA-ERINDALE – leaning PC (over LIBERAL)
*MISSISSAUGA-STREETSVILLE – leaning PC (over LIBERAL)
OAKVILLE – tight PC (over LIBERAL)

Toronto
*DON VALLEY WEST – leaning PC (over LIBERAL)
EGLINTON-LAWRENCE – tight LIBERAL (over PC)
*ETOBICOKE CENTRE – leaning PC (over LIBERAL)
*ETOBICOKE-LAKESHORE – leaning PC (over LIBERAL and NDP)
SCARBOROUGH SOUTHWEST – tight LIBERAL (over PC)
WILLOWDALE - tight PC (over LIBERAL)