Here is the latest profile of the candidates that have been nominated to date (through 9 August). As you can see, the Liberals have nominated most of their candidates, with the Conservatives not far behind. The NDP still needs to nominate about a quarter of their candidates, while the Greens and the Family Coalition Party have yet to nominate a candidate in over half the ridings. The Libertarians have yet to nominate a candidate in over three-quarters of the ridings.
Almost three-quarters of candidates are men (just 27% are women) and 92% are white (just 8% are visible minorities). Not surprisingly, the NDP has the most gender-balanced slate (40%), followed by the Liberals (34%), but both are well below the 51% women that make up Ontario’s population. The PC, Green and Family Coalition parties are more male-oriented (76-80%), while the Libertarians are entirely men.
Only the Liberals have above average visible minorities at 12%. The remaining parties are at 8% or less. In all cases, the slates are well below the estimated 22% of visible minorities that make up Ontario’s population1.
Profile of Ontario Candidates (in percentages)
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Total | |
| Nominated 2 | 92% | 87% | 72% | 43% | 43% | 21% | - | - |
| Men | 66% | 78% | 60% | 80% | 78% | 100% | 100% | 72.7% |
| Women | 34% | 24% | 40% | 20% | 22% | 0% | 0% | 27.3% |
| Minority | 12% | 8% | 8% | 4% | 7% | 5% | 0% | 8.1% |
Profile of Ontario Candidates (raw numbers)
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Total | |
| Nominated 2 | 98 | 93 | 77 | 46 | 46 | 22 | 2 | 384 |
| Men | 65 | 71 | 46 | 37 | 36 | 22 | 2 | 279 |
| Women | 33 | 22 | 31 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 105 |
| Minority | 12 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 31 |
Update: a reader asked how many of the minority candidates are in “winnable” ridings. It’s a good question. A closer look illustrates that many of the minority candidates are, not surprisingly, concentrated in heavily minority communities. Overall, there are minority candidates in 21 of 107 ridings (i.e. there are only white candidates in 86 or 80% of the ridings).
Of these 21 ridings, by my estimate, a minority candidate has a reasonable chance of winning in only 12 ridings — 11 of 12 ridings with Liberal minority candidates (all except Nepean-Carleton, which is likely to remain PC) plus one competitive riding where the PC riding is running a minority candidate but the Liberals are not (Mississauga-Streetsville). This suggests that the PCs tend to run minority candidates only in ridings where the Liberals also run minority candidates. None of the NDP minority candidates are in ridings where the NDP has a strong base (NDP minority candidates are in suburban areas where the NDP traditionally does poorly — Brampton, Mississauga, Etobicoke, Scarborough, Willowdale). And none of the Green, Family Coalition, Libertarian, or other minority candidates are likely to win a seat.
So, as of now, the maximum number of minority MPPs appears to be 12 out of 107 = 11.2%, which would be an improvement over the current 7 minority MPPs or 6.8%, but only about half of the approx. 22% of Ontario’s population who are visible minorities.
Notes
1 22% is estimated. As of 2001 (the last available numbers since 2006 minority numbers haven’t been released yet), 19.1% of Ontario’s population were visible minorities. In 1996, it was 15.8%. Thus, a straight-line projection from 2001 to 2006 is approximately 22%.
2 Percentage for “Nominated” is the % out of the 107 ridings that have a nominated candidate. The percentage for men, women, and minorities is the % out of the nominated candidates.
Parties
Liberal
Progressive Conservative
New Democrat
Green
Family Coalition
Libertarian
All Others
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