Rumours are running rampant that John Tory is considering dropping the issue that he’s been most associated with throughout the campaign — faith-based education funding. The rationale appears to be that it is so unpopular among Ontarians that it is holding Tory back. It’s possible that the idea of dropping it is being floated to gauge whether it would help or hurt the Tories, who are currently trailing the Liberals by about 8 points, enough to return the McGuinty Liberals with a narrow majority. There is no information as yet to confirm or deny these reports, but we do know that the Tories have a conference call with all candidates across the province scheduled for 10am Monday. But for someone who has pegged his entire campaign on leadership, dropping an issue that he has been defending on principle for weeks would strike me as an act of desperation. I would imagine for every voter he gains by dropping the faith-based funding, he would lose one for dropping a matter of that he deemed on principle because it was unpopular. After all, it was Tory who raised this issue in the first place. What do you think — would dropping faith-based education funding help or hurt Tory?

Update: In a remarkable turn of events, Tory has not explicitly dropped funding religious schools, but now says it will only go forward if a majority of MPPs vote in favour of it. Given that most people in the province do not support it, it is all but assured that their representatives will vote against it. So, Tory has, in effect, abandoned what has been to this point his most talked about policy just 10 days before the election. Wow.

The Toronto media refused to pick up this story put out by the Vote for MMP folks (who interviewed yours truly). Anyone want to venture a guess why not? What is the mainstream media trying to hide?

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Two-tier democracy: Under FPTP, some 75,000 “super-voters” to decide Oct. 10 outcome

Millions of other Ontario votes relegated to secondary importance

TORONTO | September 26, 2007: Under Ontario’s outdated voting system, the outcome of next month’s election will once again be decided by about 75,000 “super-voters”, whose lucky location and vote-changeability mean their votes count for a whole lot more than the other millions of Ontario voters, says election expert Greg Morrow of democraticSPACE.

“One would think that in a democratic system, the votes of all Ontario voters should count equally,” says Morrow, who also works with Ipsos Reid on election seat projections. “But in reality, under Ontario’s unrepresentative first-past-the-post voting system, only a small fraction of votes end up deciding the outcome one way or another.”

Based on past elections, an estimated 4.7 million Ontarians will vote on Oct 10. In a recently-published online report, Morrow estimated that only about 1.5% of voters will determine the outcome of the election. Under today’s FPTP system, “since the government is decided by a series of one-on-one riding battles, it will be determined by 5% of voters in the closest 30% of the ridings.”

“The new MMP system recommended by Ontario’s Citizens Assembly reverses this profoundly undemocratic imbalance between a handful of ’super voters’ and all the rest of us,” said Rick Anderson, campaign chair of Vote For MMP (www.VoteForMMP.ca). “Instead of today’s FPTP system wherein provincial election outcomes come down to a handful of voters in a handful of ridings, MMP’s new two-vote ballot system would mean every single vote counts equally towards determining the crucial province-wide question of who forms government.”

Morrow’s analysis is another convincing illustration of how badly the current voting system warps the way we do politics. “Rather than court all voters in all parts of the province, the undemocratic first-past-the-post system encourages parties to focus on a tiny minority of strategically-targeted voters,” said Anderson. “A proportional voting system such as MMP gives equal weight to all voters, meaning that parties need to compete for votes in all parts of the province. Whether a vote is cast in Timmins or Toronto, for party A or party B, in a swing riding or a safe one - they will carry the same weight and value under MMP.”

“This deeply changes the way parties compete for votes - and how they govern when in power,” said Anderson. “Under first-past-the-post, parties know they can win overwhelming control of the legislature and governing agenda with as little as 40 per cent of the votes. When parties focus on swing ridings, other voters, other ridings, and entire regions become a less-than-equal part of the picture when the cold hard calculus of policy-making is applied.”

“It’s time to replace the two-tier democracy and ’super voters’ of our winner-take-all system, and modernize our democracy by adopting MMP on October 10.”

About Vote for MMP: Vote for MMP is a multi-partisan citizens’ campaign supporting the Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) voting system presented to Ontarians for adoption in the referendum on electoral reform referendum on October 10. MMP was proposed by the Ontario Citizens’ Assembly on Electoral Reform, an independent body of 103 randomly chosen Ontario voters. Assembly members were asked by the Ontario Legislature to (a) determine whether Ontario needs a new voting system, and (b) if so to recommend an improved system. The Assembly studied proportional electoral systems used in 81 democracies around the world, and selected MMP as the approach best-suited for Ontario. Vote for MMP is funded by donations from citizens and organizations who agree with the Citizens’ Assembly recommendations, and believe it is time to strengthen democracy and modernize Ontario’s voting system that gives voters more choice, fairer results and stronger representation.

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Media contacts:

Steve Withers, Media Coordinator, Vote For MMP Campaign
Tel: (519) 282-1078
e-mail: steve.withers@VoteForMMP.ca

Rick Anderson, Chair, Vote For MMP Campaign
e-mail: rick@asci.ca

Website: www.VoteForMMP.ca

We would like to hear your thoughts on who you think will win in Oshawa on October 10th. It is one of the most unique races in the Ontario election, as its the only one-on-one battle between the NDP and the PCs (the only NDP/PC battle is a 3-way race in London-Fanshawe). Oshawa differs from the rest of Durham Region for a number of reasons. First, it is not nearly as well off as its Durham counterparts — its average household income is $58,402, which is a bit below average for the province, but well below the affluent eastern 905 regional average of $86,532. Oshawa is mostly Protestant (44% to 30% Catholic and just 5% non-Christian), but has a reasonably high secular population (over 20%).

Oshawa is, of course, home to the General Motors Canadian operations, and thus the union presence here is strong, hence the strong NDP support (although to be sure, GM employees neither all live in Oshawa nor are all NDP supporters). In 2003, PC incumbent won by about 1,000 votes over long-time NDP challenger Sid Ryan. Since then, the riding boundaries have changed — to the detriment of the NDP, since it inherited a good portion of Durham riding (with a portion of Oshawa now joining Whitby). While Ryan gathered 34.7% of the vote in 2003, this drops to 31.0% in the new configuration. The PC vote is virtually unchanged, while the Liberals gain 3%. With the Liberals losing some support province-wide (about 5% at last check) and the NDP up a couple points, all signs point to a re-match between Ouellette and Ryan (Liberal Faelyne Templer and Green Alexander Kemp are also running).

Give us your thoughts on what you are seeing on the ground in Oshawa, and what you think will happen in Oshawa, either by leaving comments here or leaving comments on our OSHAWA riding page.

Just a reminder — we are still accepting campaign ads from all candidates. If you are working on a campaign and would like to see your candidate’s ad on DemocraticSPACE, just drop me a note at gdmorrow@gmail.com and we can create and upload an ad for you in no time. The cost is $25. The ad (which links to your website) is rotated throughout the site and placed permanently at the top of your candidate’s riding page. We are expecting 2 million page views on DemocraticSPACE throughout the course of the campaign. Our goal is to help candidates get out their message (all ad revenues are fully reinvested in the site, since we are non-profit).

The latest projections from DemocraticSPACE have the Liberals holding a slim majority. Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals are now projected at 60 seats (6 more than is needed for a majority) based on average support of 41.5%, John Tory’s Progressive Conservatives with 35 seats and 34.0% support, and Howard Hampton’s NDP with 12 seats and 16.0% support. Frank de Jong’s Green Party is projected at 7.0% support and no seats, and all others at 1.4%.

Projections are based on a weighted average of the last five polls conducted by leading pollsters, including the latest not-yet-released Ipsos-Reid poll (through 27 Sept). Poll data is calibrated regionally and adjusted for individual candidates, providing the most accurate predictive model available. Current projections are based on 3,362 surveys conducted between 18 and 27 Sept and have a margin of error of +/- 1.69%.

	LIBERAL	60 seats	41.5% support
	PC	35 seats	34.0% support
	NDP	12 seats	16.0% support
	GREEN	0 seats	7.0% support
	OTHERS	0 seats	1.4% support

Download RIDING-BY-RIDING PROJECTIONS.

Here is what the above projections look like in map form (map by Nick Boragina) - click to enlarge.

(please note that since Elections Ontario’s “transposition of votes” from 2003 to Ontario’s 107 new ridings do not include numbers for the Green Party, we cannot make riding-by-riding projections for the Greens — however, you can assume the Greens are 1-to-1.5% less than the figure given under the “other” column in the projection tables)

If you would like to embed our projections in your website (update automatically), see our [horizontal/regular version] or [vertical/sidebar version].

Stay tuned to DemocraticSPACE for the latest updates as we receive the latest polling information. For full details see http://democraticSPACE.com/ontario2007

The latest projections from DemocraticSPACE have the Liberals edging up, gaining 3 seats since Update 22. Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals are now projected at 59 seats (5 more than is needed for a majority) based on average support of 40.9%, John Tory’s Progressive Conservatives with 36 seats and 34.0% support, and Howard Hampton’s NDP with 12 seats and 15.8% support. Frank de Jong’s Green Party is projected at 7.9% support and no seats, and all others at 1.4%.

Projections are based on a weighted average of the last five polls conducted by leading pollsters, including the latest Harris-Decima poll (through 24 Sept). Poll data is calibrated regionally and adjusted for individual candidates, providing the most accurate predictive model available. Current projections are based on 3,494 surveys conducted between 16 and 24 Sept and have a margin of error of +/- 1.66%.

	LIBERAL	59 seats	40.9% support
	PC	36 seats	34.0% support
	NDP	12 seats	15.8% support
	GREEN	0 seats	7.9% support
	OTHERS	0 seats	1.4% support

Here is what the above projections look like in map form (map by Nick Boragina) - click to enlarge.

Download RIDING-BY-RIDING PROJECTIONS. (please note that since Elections Ontario’s “transposition of votes” from 2003 to Ontario’s 107 new ridings do not include numbers for the Green Party, we cannot make riding-by-riding projections for the Greens — however, you can assume the Greens are 1-to-1.5% less than the figure given under the “other” column in the projection tables)

If you would like to embed our projections in your website (update automatically), see our [horizontal/regular version] or [vertical/sidebar version].

Stay tuned to DemocraticSPACE for the latest updates as we receive the latest polling information. For full details see http://democraticSPACE.com/ontario2007

Advertise on DemocraticSPACE! Currently, each ad spot gets roughly 400 impressions per day (or 4,000 impressions for the duration of the campaign). Ads are rotated throughout the site (candidate ads are also placed permanently on their respective riding pages). We offer a 5% discount for every 5 ad spots you buy up to a maximum 20% discount, as per the following table. Total refers to the remaining 10 days of the election campaign. Our costs per thousand impressions (CPM) range from $5.00 to $6.25. And remember, our audience is highly targeted political consumers (would-be voters). We can design the ad for you or you can provide it (470×94 pixels, JPG or GIF format). So if you are working on a local, regional or province-wide campaign, or are a non-profit or for-profit organization, and want to advertise on DemocraticSPACE, just contact Greg Morrow at gdmorrow@gmail.com.

# SPOTS / DAILY IMPRESSIONS / TOTAL IMPRESSIONS / TOTAL COST / CPM*
1 spot / 400/day / 4,000 total / $25 / $6.25
2 spots / 800/day / 8,000 total / $50 / $6.25
3 spots / 1,200/day / 12,000 total / $75 / $6.25
4 spots / 1,600/day / 16,000 total / $100 / $6.25
5 spots / 2,000/day / 20,000 total / reg. $125 ($118.75 w/ 5% discount) / $5.94
10 spots / 4,000/day / 40,000 total / reg. $250 ($225 w/ 10% discount) / $5.63
15 spots / 6,000/day / 60,000 total / reg. $375 ($318.75 w/ 15% discount) / $5.31
20 spots / 8,000/day / 80,000 total / reg. $500 ($400 w/ 20% discount) / $5.00
25 spots / 10,000/day / 100,000 total / reg. $625 ($500 w/ 20% discount) / $5.00
* cost per thousand impressions

The first post-debate poll by SES, shows the Liberals with an 8% edge, but when rolled into our 5-poll weighted average, it shows little change. The latest projections from DemocraticSPACE have the Liberalson the edge of majority, again suggesting that either a minority or majority government is possible. Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals are projected at 56 seats (2 more than is needed for a majority) based on average support of 40.5%, John Tory’s Progressive Conservatives with 39 seats and 35.0% support, and Howard Hampton’s NDP with 12 seats and 15.9% support. Frank de Jong’s Green Party is projected at 7.2% support and no seats, and all others at 1.4%.

Projections are based on a weighted average of the last five polls conducted by leading pollsters, including the latest SES poll (through 23 Sept). Poll data is calibrated regionally and adjusted for individual candidates, providing the most accurate predictive model available. Current projections are based on 3,589 surveys conducted between 14 and 23 Sept and have a margin of error of +/- 1.64%.

	LIBERAL	56 seats	40.5% support
	PC	39 seats	35.0% support
	NDP	12 seats	15.9% support
	GREEN	0 seats	7.2% support
	OTHERS	0 seats	1.4% support

Download RIDING-BY-RIDING PROJECTIONS. (please note that since Elections Ontario’s “transposition of votes” from 2003 to Ontario’s 107 new ridings do not include numbers for the Green Party, we cannot make riding-by-riding projections for the Greens — however, you can assume the Greens are 1-to-1.5% less than the figure given under the “other” column in the projection tables)

Stay tuned to DemocraticSPACE for the latest updates as we receive the latest polling information. For full details see http://democraticSPACE.com/ontario2007

What are the wealthiest and poorest ridings in Ontario? Here’s your answer (based on the latest figures, which are from the 2001 census):

WEALTHIEST

POOREST

Not surprisingly, 7 of the top 10 wealthiest ridings are currently projecting for the Progressive Conservatives, and, if you look at the full list, it’s clear that the NDP’s seats are generally low-income (11 of 12 are below average, while one is about average). Interesting that PC leader John Tory choose to run in what is easily the wealthiest riding in the province. It is also clear that not all regions are equally well-off (of course there are also differences in cost of living), with the 905 regions well above average, and Eastern and Northern Ontario well below average. Here are the average household incomes for each region:

Click “more” to see the complete list and sorted by region.

(more…)

Some interesting pieces and news on the electoral front.

Andrew Coyne, Canada’s top political journalist (in my opinion) makes the case why conservatives should support MMP.

David Docherty, the Dean of the Faculty of Arts and a professor of Political Science at Wilfrid Laurier University argued in favour of MMP (you may need to be a subscriber for this).

The Globe and Mail’s Rick Salutin says that voting in favour of MMP is a no-brainer, joining media personalities Antonia Zerbisias (Toronto Star) and Linda McQuaig (Toronto Star) and the aforementioned Andrew Coyne (National Post) as MMP supporters.

Liberal MPP Ted McKeekin (representing the Hamilton-area riding of Ancaster-Dundas-Flamsborough-Westdale) has endorsed MMP, joining Health Minister and Deputy Premier George Smitherman, Attorney General Michael Bryant, Municipal Affairs Minister John Gerretsen, and Davenport MPP Tony Ruprecht as sitting Liberal MPPs who support electoral reform. I should also note that Bob Rae, federal Liberal candidate in Toronto Centre also endorses MMP, along with Liberal MP (St. Paul’s) Carolyn Bennett and former Liberal cabinet ministers Elinor Caplan and Monique Begin.

Another Liberal blogger, Jason Morris of gauntlet.ca has also come out in favour of MMP, joining other well-known Liberal bloggers such as Scott Tribe, Michelle Oliel, John Lennard, Mark Richard Francis, Vijay Sappani, among many others.

The Liberal candidate in my home riding of Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox & Addington, Ian Wilson, who is running opposite the now infamous Randy Hillier, has also come out in favour of MMP, joining fellow Liberal candidates Selwyn Hicks (Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound), Kate Holloway (Trinity-Spadina), Steve Fishman (Simcoe-Grey) and Sean Kelly (Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke) as Liberal candidates who support MMP. Skinny Dipper is keeping tabs on which candidates have endorsed MMP.