I’ve made a battleground map

I’d also like to note that by posting the maps here I’m giving Greg the right to use them (on his own or through ipsos reid) should he wish.

Thanks, Nick. It’s interesting to see the geographic pattern of the battleground ridings. Given the sea of blue that surrounds the GTA, it does make Kitchener-Centre and Guelph staying Liberal look less likely, doesn’t it? Sarnia-Lambton, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, and Huron-Bruce for the northern flank of what was once Liberal territory — it suggests that if one goes, all three very well might. It also shows that the three ridings of Prince Edwards-Hastings, Northumberland-Quinte West and Peterborough will be critical ridings. And of course, there are many ridings in and around Toronto that are PC-Liberal battles — I suspect the first ones to go PC would be starting from the furthest outside Toronto — Oak Ridges-Markham, Ajax-Pickering, Oakville, for example…

Nick to make the battlegrounds easier to follow, how about 8 maps, using the regions Greg uses:

1. CENTRAL ONTARIO
2. EASTERN ONTARIO
3. HAMILTON-NIAGARA
4. NORTHERN ONTARIO
5. PEEL-HALTON
6. SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO
7. TORONTO
8. YORK-DURHAM

Then its up to Greg but there might be some links directly from the text portions of Democraticspace to the maps and some possible space for comments on the regions as a whole. e.g. the sea of blue surrounding the GTA.

I would say that Prince Edward hastings should be added to the mix of ridings that could go either way. Leona Dombrowski is FAR from having this riding sewn up.

yes, there are about half a dozen liberal ridings I’d add to this list. These ridings might be battlegrounds now, but remember – during the last federal election the grits held a lead over the tories, consistantly, until the x-mas break. Once it was over, the tories came back and were polling in majority territory. These numbers would give the PC party a total of 54 seats, if they won every single battleground riding. I think that more needs to be added to that. I did an old battleground map myself found here. it’s a bit out-of-date but I think that many more Liberal ridings should be in the battleground column. Especially if the PC’s start polling better.

Prince Edward Hastings, Hamilton Wentworth, Hamilton Mountain, and all the Mississauga ridings should be added to the PC-Liberal battlegrounds IMO

You do know your math only works if these “30% of the ridings” also happen to have “30% of the population”, which is quite the statistical unlikelihood.

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