Comments on: Update 24: Liberals in Majority Territory

By: Mark

Mark — Tue, 02 Oct 2007 00:18:46 +0000

PJC,
In a way, you are “changing the subject’, by referring back to the 2003, as opposed to the direction of the discussion as it has been in this campaign. But lets have it your way!
Yes it looked like the Liberals will be down from the 2003 results, which seems to follow the trend of two-term governments being re-elected with a reduced majority – eg Mulroney, Harris, etc.
Of late, it has been appearing that they would be reelected with a reduced but solid majority, with momentum building up towards e-day.
Unfortunately, for prognasticators, today’s reversal of position by Tory, I think, may change everything. He may turn it around and hold McGuinty to a minority, or hand him an even bigger majority. I have got to give Tory credit for being willing to take such a huge risk!

By: Kel

Kel — Mon, 01 Oct 2007 04:45:33 +0000

I agree with Mark. I’d never vote for the Conservatives as there’s hardly a single conservative policy I agree with, but at least Tory seems like a decent, moderate sort of guy who’d do minimal damage to our social and economic fabric. What would be absolutely horrifying would be for the Conservatives to react to the results of this election by electing another Mike Harris.

By: PJC

PJC — Mon, 01 Oct 2007 00:42:52 +0000

Mark, I suggest you look carefully at the past election results and the various projections before doing your own spin. The 2003 election results were: Liberals 72, PCs 24 NDP 7. Now it looks like the PCs will gain some seats, the NDP will gain some and the question as I see it is how many seats will the Liberals lose?

Greg, our guide and guru originally (August 07) had the Liberals losing over twenty seats. Now from the projections it looks like the bleeding has stopped or slowed down and the Liberals may lose only 10 or 12 seats. If they limit their losses to that range they may have a majority government and Dalton is safe for another four years or so.

But even a slight drop in the polls or a tough ground campaign may mean the Liberal losses go back to the twenty seat or so range. That means a minority government and it is not guarantered (see 1985) it will be a Liberal minority.

Minority governments tend to last less than two years and in the very likely event we get one- will the parties look to change leaders in the narrow time frame available-go wit winners and drop losers? If there is a minority government John Tory and Howard Hampton are probably safe in their leadership if they want to keep the job. Dalton may be safe in his set but is he really safe in this leaders role if the Liberals lose government or even if they just lose 10 to 20 seats?

By: Mark

Mark — Sun, 30 Sep 2007 19:58:55 +0000

PJC should either take the Tory Rose-coloured glasses of or stop the nonsense spin. The latest numbers have McGuinty solidly in majority territory and showing momemtum, both in his own riding and across the province. I have been prdicting 60 liberal seats and 35 PC seats since the start of the campaign, but with the momentum, it may get worse for Tory.
While I am a Liberal supporter currently, I hope he does not drop much further. Despite running a poor first provincial campaign, full of rookie mistakes, I think he would make a very decent premier… the second time around. The party needs to give him a second chance to learn from his mistakes of this campaign… and run on the type Red Tory policy platform that we were expecting from him, not the Frank Klees style/taxcut and expand services promises/private school funding type we have seen. He needs another chance to put the rightwing/common sense revolution parts to rest. When he does that, I believe he can win in 2011… if the party gives him the chance!

By: Smok Wawelski

Smok Wawelski — Sun, 30 Sep 2007 15:05:32 +0000

Nick, I’m not saying the Tories will lose all their seats, but at this rate, they might not end up with many more than they currently hold.

By: Nick J Boragina

Nick J Boragina — Sun, 30 Sep 2007 06:52:56 +0000

Mcgunity will not lose his seat.

I dont know what’s with all these doom and gloom projectors. “The Tories wont win any seats” “No, the Liberals wont win any sets” “No, it’ll be a huge swing to the NDP”

By: PJC

PJC — Sun, 30 Sep 2007 05:04:58 +0000

The real question is ow many seats the liberals will lose. It looks like at least ten and possibly as many as twenty. Giben the riding campaigns, it is doubtful they can hold on to a majority. Do we know which cabinet ministers are in trouble?
I don’t think McGuinty will do a Peterson, lose his seat as well as his government but it is not out of the bounds of possibility. My guess is that the next provincial election is less than two years away and there may be more than one new leader.

By: Owin

Owin — Sat, 29 Sep 2007 22:47:04 +0000

The NDP will not hit 18, but they won’t need to do that well for HH to keep his job. If they can pull out a baker’s dozen that would be quite a rebound from last time out. And of course if the Libs don’t get a majority, the NDP will be the big winners regardless of their seat count.

By: Smok Wawelski

Smok Wawelski — Sat, 29 Sep 2007 19:11:22 +0000

Sorry, Tory is toast, and if they keep him, they’ll lose yet again… Come on! this is the architecht of Kim campbell’s 1993 campaign…. Did you really expect a different result?

Like it or not the religious school funding issue has become the ballot question.

maybe Elizabeth Witmer will get a crack at the leadership next time.

as for the Dippers, depnds how they do. if they can creep up to 18 seats, maybe Hampton will stay on. Otherwise, look for Kormos.

By: The HardCore Political Junkie known as "U"

The HardCore Political Junkie known as "U" — Sat, 29 Sep 2007 04:04:12 +0000

It ain’t over yet. And I’m kinda tired of just talking about faith based funding, for heavens sake Tory isn’t even elected yet. Last time I checked, this election was on Dalton’s Record on Health Care.
Man I paid more taxes this year and I still wait for ages in the hospital. I don’t understand why anyone with a 2.3 Billion dollar surplus won’t give me a break on that measly health tax. For crying out loud, that tax didn’t go to health care as spending rose from 69 Billion dollars to 91 billion dollars under Dalton’s liberals.

I wonder what other choices there are other than the liberals.