DemocraticSPACE is pleased to announce the launch of coverage for the 2008 Alberta general election, to be held 3 March 2008. Feel free to start up a conversation on the issues and riding-by-riding discussion forums, check out our latest seat projections, take a look at the latest polls, or peruse the latest articles.

The direct link is http://www.democraticSPACE.com/alberta2008/.

Note: we are in the midst of moving the site to a new format, so please bear with us until the blog is moved over. We’re launching the Alberta site, in part, to test the new format.

So who will “win” in tomorrow’s Super Tuesday Democratic primaries — Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama? It’s too close to call, but it is likely that neither candidate will emerge as the clear-cut favorite. Keep in mind that the number of delegates is what matters, not the overall popular vote. But determining the number of delegates is tricky because a) allocation of delegates is done proportionally, but b) it is done partially at the district level and partially at-large, depending on the state. Adding to the complexity are the shifts in the polls we’re seeing across the country towards Obama. But, as the establishment candidate, Clinton has a more extensive, more established and more experienced ground campaign — and a more-likely-to-vote demographic — which could blunt Obama’s momentum. Based on the latest polling and some good ol’ fashioned guesswork in states without polls, here is an estimate of the delegate count that we might see tomorrow. As you can see, I expect Clinton to come out of Super Tuesday with a slight edge in delegates, about 52% to 48% for Obama, with just over half of the delegates accounted for. In order words, there is a long road still ahead after Tuesday…

Estimated Number of Delegates

Note
* no or very limited poll data
¹ Does not include 26 elected delegates for John Edwards
² Does not include 123 undeclared superdelegates
³ Does not include Edwards or undeclared delegates