Comments on: Who Will Win Super Tuesday Democratic Primary?

By: Phillip Huggan

Phillip Huggan — Fri, 15 Feb 2008 05:11:11 +0000

Being forceful can certainly be a good thing for the world’s civilian population.
Just as 3rd (IDK about 4th) generation nuclear reactors require enormous decommissioning costs (lasting millenia; it could be the only real estate and geology unusable to our multi-PH.D’ed great great grandchildren is radioactive dump sites) covered by taxpayers and not utilities, nuclear weapon systems impose can impose costs covered by an increased threat of nuclear war, and not taxpayers.

Nuclear weapon early warning systems degrade. So do weapon storage army bases. A country that can’t afford to keep its nuclear weapon systems from degrading is a threat. This happened with Russia/USSR in the 1980s and 1990s. I hope they are modernizing/maintaining their early warning radar systems (in a way that itself isn’t dangerous) and paying army salaries now. But this could happen again. Once a nation gets somewhere around a dozen nukes (less and they are likely to try to keep their nuke programme secret) and rockets suitable to their theatre, they become a playa. It would be good if someone big and strong forced them to save a big enough trust, or hold enough currency reserves with whoever builds their nuclear weapon systems, so that the weapons can be maintained in pepertuity or as long as is desired.
A big bully can probably exert enough influence to force all nuclear powers to pay for this service. Canada can’t do it, too puny. I hope the next American president is up to the task. Unless….the American public wants to leave it for the French?
Stockpiling nuclear sprockets and cogs will be expensive, but so would an accidental war.

By: Phillip Huggan

Phillip Huggan — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 06:22:59 +0000

I’m now captivated by the Democratic race. It looks as close as the 2000 Presidential election was. Kind of a neat system where Texas can still have a major voice in electing the next US President.
Previously I’d believed Hillary’s environment platform to be slightly superior (it looks like a couple billion $$ a year extra on green power generation research vs. Barack putting that money into CCS), and health platform slightly superior (universal vs. 15 million short of universality). But I could be swayed by the debates ahead.
Basically, whoever campaigns to steepen highend income tax rates the most, cut oil breaks and military-industrial complex funding (though biosensors and container x-ray scanners are always welcome) the most, and directing the proceeds to health, education, the environment and a budget in the black; whoever campaigns on this J.Edwards-ian platform would get my nod. It is sickening to see corporatism stifle climate change research abroad.
Hillary’s strong team is cancelled by Obama’s previous no-war-in-Iraq stand (if this were 2000, 38 year old Obama hands down). I don’t really know if any single leader is strong enough to bring America into the 21st century geopolitical world. When the US withdraws from Iraq, Al-Qaeda and/or Iran will vie for her oil. And how do you fight a transnational population that attacks you when you aren’t willing to operate in a nation in which they partially reside? Has America gamed how not to initiate a nuclear winter if they are nuked by terrorists? The US is already failing the Global Warming challenge badly (in part because China and India are industrializing in a very American way) and this is just the start of the 21st century…

By: Wednesday Keller

Wednesday Keller — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 10:03:37 +0000

Not one of your better estimates, I have to say, as you underestimited Obama in just about every state and then over-represented him in California (that darn Zogby, I assume, got my hopes up and threw you off).

Instead of 854/834 Clinton, it looks like Obama will wind up a couple of (pledged) delegates ahead of her—both for the night, and overall though of course superdelegates mean Clinton retains a narrow lead.

By: Matt Peskett

Matt Peskett — Tue, 05 Feb 2008 11:14:12 +0000

I don’t know how many people have been looking at Google Trends to tell us who is the more popular Democrat candidate but Obama has certainly won Google.
http://www.firetop.co.uk/2008/02/04/barack-obama-to-win-super-tuesday/

By: Chris

Chris — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:06:53 +0000

I found a really comprehensive prediction on Daily Kos here. There's also the daily polling tracking done at Gallup that shows Obama gaining huge momentum. I think Super Tuesday will be close, but Obama's momentum will take him over the top in the weeks that follow.