Updated: May 12 @ 12:55 PT

As it stands now, according to Real Clear Politics, Barack Obama has 1591 elected delegates to Hillary Clinton’s 1426 — a lead of 165. Among superdelegates, Obama leads 279 to 272 — a lead of 7. So overall Obama has a 172-delegate lead (1870 to 1698). Here are some best guesses for the upcoming races…

As you can see, at present, it looks like Obama will end up 138 elected delegates ahead, and 11 superdelegates ahead, so overall Obama is ahead by 149. I’ll continue to update this as new polls are released.

Voters in California faced two competing ballot initiatives on June 3 that will impact both the government’s use of eminent domain (i.e. taking private land for some other purpose) and rent control (restricting the allowable rent for some units).

Proposition 98: essentially restricts any government act that restricts the use of private property, including the elimination of rent control. This is the most “private-sector” friendly of the two ballot initiatives, prohibiting all public “takings”. The measure does, however, include a provision that rent-controlled units in Los Angeles, San Francisco and Santa Monica would still be set by current rent-control measures when tenants leave, so it doesn’t get rid of rent control entirely.

Proposition 99: restricts government from taking owner-occupied housing, but retains rent control. This is the most “public-sector” friendly of the two. One unclear impact: whether, for example, rent control would still apply to a rented duplex unit where the owner lives in one of the units, since imposing rent-control on this unit would constitute a “taking” on an owner-occupied unit.

I believe that Prop 99 goes too far and Prop 98 doesn’t go far enough. That said, I recommend NO on 98 and YES on 99. Proposition 99 goes too far because it effectively means that *any* public action constitutes a “taking” and thus requires public compensation. For example, any laws that restrict building height could be seen as a “taking”. Don’t get me wrong, there are serious flaws to our current zoning practices; zoning reform is something that we desperately need. But in effect, Prop 99 means that *all* efforts to plan for future growth could be viewed as a “taking”. It could either bankrupt cities (requiring compensation for any planning efforts) or simply eliminate planning altogether. For this reason, we recommend voting NO on 98.

Despite Prop 98’s flaws, it began with good intentions — that is, to prevent people from losing their homes and businesses because of eminent domain abuse. I’ve previously commented on one such abuse in Hollywood. We should pass measures that prevent such abuses. But, by extending the measure to include any public actions, the ballot measure becomes an ideological tool that would make it impossible to plan our cities at all. Prop 99, on the other hand, acknowledges the injustice of losing one’s own home to eminent domain abuse. Where it doesn’t go far enough is in protecting small businesses from losing their property, and thus, their livelihood, as was the case in the Hollywood case. So while it doesn’t go far enough, it begins to demarcate the limits of eminent domain, without doing harm, so we recommend voting YES on 99.

The above should not be taken as an endorsement of current rent control policies (despite me being an urban planner and advocate for social justice). I believe other measures — inclusionary zoning and a more robust Section 8 voucher program — would be more effective. Why? Because rent control applies to the unit, not to the person occupying the unit. There is nothing that prevents a person who can easily afford market rent from living in a rent-controlled unit. And that frequently happens, particularly for people who have lived in the same place for a long time. Section 8 vouchers, on the other hand, are tied to the person — if you can’t afford market rent, the voucher will make up the difference (up to certain limits). Rent control is particularly problematic in L.A. because only units built before 1978 are controlled. Thus, older units — those in most need of repair — are rent-controlled in perpetuity. At a certain point, the costs of upkeep outweigh the income generated by the controlled rents. So many landlords let them fall into disrepair or redevelop it — tearing down the building in favor of new condos, which are market-rate. This, of course, has the opposite effect as intended (which is to ensure a supply a rent-controlled apartments).

So, while Prop 99 is the better start to curb eminent domain abuse, it should not be taken to mean support for rent control. We still have work to do to ensure we have a supply of affordable housing for those who cannot afford market rents.

With the odds increasingly in favor of Barack Obama winning the Democratic Party nomination, talk is turning to potential Vice-President candidates.

There is a lot of talk of an Obama-Clinton ticket. On the one hand, it makes good sense, as a gesture of unity given Clinton strong support. But on the other hand, Clinton on the ticket will help mobilize conservatives. But more importantly, given that Hillary actually believes she should be President (and she comes with former President Bill Clinton), I would worry that they would have a hard time working together, especially since she thinks he’s too inexperienced and he thinks she’s hard of the “old ways of Washington”. And, while I don’t agree, there will be some who won’t vote for a ticket with a black man and white woman (some have mentioned it represents to many conservatives something of an “affirmative action” ticket). I’m with Nancy Pelosi; I just don’t think it’s the best ticket.

For my money, I like Jim Webb as Obama’s VP. A former Republican, he holds a Law degree from Georgetown and he’s currently the junior Democratic Senator from Virginia (although was elected only in 2006), a key southern state where Obama performed well and which some observers think could be competitive in November. Typically, the VP doesn’t swing many states, but there is some evidence to suggest a VP could help deliver his/her home state. It’s entirely possible, if not likely, that an Obama-Webb ticket could win Virginia. Clinton might help in Arkansas (where she was formerly First Lady), but given that she represents New York, many Southerners will see a ticket of two big city northerners (Chicago and NYC) as problematic. Moreover, Webb, while representing Virginia, was born in Missouri, which also figures to be highly competitive in November. Webb could help there as well.

Most importantly, Webb strengthens the ticket, by shoring up Obama’s perceived weaknesses. While Obama represents a strong domestic agenda, Webb represents a strong foreign policy component. Webb is a “blue-dog” Democrat with moderate positions, who can appeal precisely to the white, rural, blue-collar voters that Hillary Clinton has been talking about. Moreover, Webb brings military credentials, which will be important against John McCain, who is widely regarded as a war hero. Webb was the Secretary of the Navy under President Ronald Reagan (although resigned because he refused to reduce its size). He’s a graduate of the Naval Academy and is a decorated Vietnam veteran. His father is also a war hero, buried in Arlington National Cemetery. And his son is in the Army and recently returned from Iraq, so he can speak very personally about the toll Iraq has taken. He’s been on the Foreign Relations, Veterans Affairs and Armed Services Committees in the Senate, and has introduced several important pieces of legislation, including expanded Veterans benefits and mandating a vote in Congress on any potential conflict with Iran. Webb would certainly be a loss for the Democrats in the Senate, but with former Virginia Democratic Governor Mark Warner running for Senate (in John Warner’s old seat), his shoes could be filled; plus, Democratic Governor Tim Kaine would appoint a Democrat to replace Webb. And Webb is also a no-nonsense guy. If there are any doubts about Obama’s toughness, Webb will certainly be the guy to settle the score outside. He’s already been introduced, of sorts, to the national stage as he was asked to give the Democratic Party response to the 2007 State of the Union address, and received rave reviews as being one of the strongest in recent history. He’s also written very forcefully about the economic disparities in America, themes that Clinton has used in small-town America.

Of course, any VP candidate will also be scrutinized for his negatives. Webb has a few — and here I’m simply laying out how conservatives might attack him. First, he’s been married 3 times, which conservatives might paint as not presenting the squeaky-clean “family values” type. Second, in 1979, he penned an article entitled “Women Can’t Fight”, which rightfully caused him some trouble. Thirdly, as a fiction writer, he wrote some very sexually explicit texts, which was used against him in his Senate run. These will no doubt be raised again, but I think Webb is strong enough to dispel any doubts.

Obama/Webb ‘08. Sounds like a good ticket to me. What do you think?

As it stands now (May 9), Barack Obama holds a 158-delegate lead over Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic Party nomination. Obama is quickly closing the gap in superdelegates (currently only 7 behind) and there is good reason to believe that he will overtake her soon. With no big states left, the math — both in delegates and the popular vote — is daunting for Clinton. She will easily win West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico — possibly by 2-to-1 margins since the Obama camp is not investing heavily here — but Obama may have the inside track in Oregon, South Dakota and Montana. All told, our latest estimates show that Clinton could close the gap by about 25 delegates over the remaining six contests, leaving Obama 130-135 elected delegates ahead. Even a 60/40 split for Obama in the remaining superdelegates (he has been winning at a higher rate of late) would mean Obama gains an additional 50-55 superdelegates, leaving Obama with an overall lead of 180-190 delegates.

Clinton is holding out hope that she will be able to seat Michigan and Florida proportional to the uncontested Feb 5 results. However, few agree that this reflects the will of the people (Obama, after all, received zero votes in Michigan). Having a re-vote at this stage is unfair to those states who followed the rules because it gives Florida and Michigan the benefit of hindsight (and possible gives them the deciding vote after the fact). Democrats in Michigan have proposed a 69-59 split of delegates, which only makes up 10 delegates for her. There has also been talk of seating Florida at 1/2 it regular delegation strength (106 delegates instead of 211), and using the uncontested results. It’s not clear that Obama’s camp would agree to this, but even still, that only gives her a 63-43 edge, another 20 delegates). So, even in the best case, Clinton can only make up another 30 delegates by seating Florida and Michigan, well less than the 180-190 delegate lead we might expect Obama to have.

DemocraticSPACE believes that Clinton should remain in the race until June 3, when all the primaries and caucuses are complete. But how Clinton conducts herself over the next three weeks will determine how quickly (or whether) Obama will be able to unify the party. Given the near-impossible odds of Clinton winning the nomination at this point, she would be wise to stick to promoting herself as a candidate, and continuing to raise the concerns of white, largely rural, working-class voters (although, as I’ve noted elsewhere, these aren’t the only voters that matter), rather than “going nuclear” to tarnish Obama’s image. This effort will keep pressure on Obama to broaden his appeal. Indeed, Clinton taking up the cause of rural working-class whites has forced Obama to make adjustments, and he has make been making some progress from Ohio to Pennsylvania to Indiana. If she can convince these voters that the Democratic Party will look after their interests, and she ultimately backs Obama 100%, many of these voters will follow her (although Democrats would be naive to believe that rural voters are going to abandon the Republicans en masse).

If she stays positive, there is some benefit for Democrats in both the short- and long-term. It will mean that ground operations will become more fully developed in the remaining five states (Puerto Rico doesn’t vote in the Presidential election) since Clinton and Obama will compete there, which has some added benefit for the fall general election, particularly in a battleground state like Oregon. Having competed across the country (unlike the Republicans who wrapped their nomination up early), the Democrats can more plausibly implement the 50-state approach that DNC Chairman Howard Dean has promoted. This might help in the short term in key states, but it really benefits the Democrats in the long term. Equally importantly, the 50-state approach feeds into Obama’s message of unity.

However, if Clinton goes highly negative — a scorched earth approach — she only damages her own reputation (reducing her chances of a VP spot, reducing her chances in 2012, and potentially damaging her credibility in the Senate) and opens up unnecessary divisions in the Democratic Party, jeopardizing the Party’s chances in November. So, much depends on Hillary’s approach over the coming weeks. If she takes the high road, Democrats will come together. If she takes the low road, then she will bear a lot of responsibility should the Democrats lose in November.

Our final projections for North Carolina and Indiana show that both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton will each be able to claim victory by the end of the night. We project the following:

North Carolina
Barack Obama — 54.7% — 63 delegates [range: 53.2% to 56.2% — 61 to 64 delegates]
Hillary Clinton — 45.3% — 52 delegates [range: 43.8% to 46.8% — 51 to 54 delegates]
Obama margin-of-victory — 9.4% [range: 6.4% to 12.4%]

Indiana
Hillary Clinton — 52.5% — 38 delegates [range: 51.0% to 54.0% — 37 to 39 delegates]
Barack Obama — 47.5% — 34 delegates [range: 46.0% to 49.0% — 33 to 35 delegates]
Clinton margin-of-victory — 5.0% [range: 2.0% to 8.0%]

As you can see, Obama is projected to win by anywhere from 6.4 to 12.4 points in North Carolina, but the most probable outcome is a 9.4 point margin of victory. Translating into delegates, Obama could pick up between 61 and 64 delegates, 7 to 13 more delegates than Clinton. Clinton is projected to win by anywhere from 2.0 to 8.0 points in Indiana, but the most probable outcome is a 5.0 point margin of victory. Clinton could pick up between 37 and 39 delegates, 2 to 6 more delegates than Clinton. So, overall, Obama is likely to come out of the night with anywhere from 1 to 15 more delegates.

Here are the latest DemocraticSPACE aggregated polling numbers and corresponding seat projections (in parentheses). Note that in most cases current projections do not adjust for individual candidates, as not all candidates have been nominated yet. Projections are a snap-shot in time, based on current polling. Note also that the reliability of projections increases as the frequency of polls increases, so current projections are not as reliable as they are during the campaign period (when there are many polls).

National (9 Apr - 1 May, +/- 1.2%)
Conservative — 34.5% (120)
Liberal — 31.1% (115)
NDP — 15.7% (26)
Green — 9.1% (0)
Bloc — 8.5% (45)
Other — 1.0% (2)

Ontario (9 Apr - 1 May, +/- 2.1%)
Liberal — 40.9% (61)
Conservative — 32.5% (36)
NDP — 14.5% (9)
Green — 11.2% (0)
Other — 0.9% (0)

Québec (9 Apr - 1 May, +/- 2.4%)
Bloc — 34.2% (45)
Conservative — 23.4% (11)
Liberal — 22.7% (17)
NDP — 12.6% (1)
Green — 6.1% (0)
Other — 1.0% (1)

British Columbia (7 Apr - 1 May, +/- 3.3%)
Conservative — 34.5% (18)
Liberal — 27.8% (10)
NDP — 21.4% (8)
Green — 15.0% (0)
Other — 1.2% (0)

Alberta (7 Apr - 1 May, +/- 3.9%)
Conservative — 58.6% (28)
Liberal — 17.5% (0)
Green — 11.3% (0)
NDP — 11.0% (0)
Other — 1.6% (0)

Prairies (7 Apr - 1 May, +/- 4.2%)
Conservative — 40.8% (19)
NDP — 25.2% (4)
Liberal — 21.7% (5)
Green — 10.6% (0)
Other — 1.7% (0)

Atlantic Canada (7 Apr - 1 May, +/- 3.7%)
Liberal — 40.0% (20)
Conservative — 32.0% (8)
NDP — 20.9% (3)
Green — 6.6% (0)
Other — 0.6% (1)

Someone created a DemocraticSPACE page on Facebook, for all you die-hard DS fans. Click HERE to join the DemocraticSPACE blog network. I think you need to add the Blog Networks application, if you haven’t done so already.