As it stands now (May 9), Barack Obama holds a 158-delegate lead over Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic Party nomination. Obama is quickly closing the gap in superdelegates (currently only 7 behind) and there is good reason to believe that he will overtake her soon. With no big states left, the math — both in delegates and the popular vote — is daunting for Clinton. She will easily win West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico — possibly by 2-to-1 margins since the Obama camp is not investing heavily here — but Obama may have the inside track in Oregon, South Dakota and Montana. All told, our latest estimates show that Clinton could close the gap by about 25 delegates over the remaining six contests, leaving Obama 130-135 elected delegates ahead. Even a 60/40 split for Obama in the remaining superdelegates (he has been winning at a higher rate of late) would mean Obama gains an additional 50-55 superdelegates, leaving Obama with an overall lead of 180-190 delegates.

Clinton is holding out hope that she will be able to seat Michigan and Florida proportional to the uncontested Feb 5 results. However, few agree that this reflects the will of the people (Obama, after all, received zero votes in Michigan). Having a re-vote at this stage is unfair to those states who followed the rules because it gives Florida and Michigan the benefit of hindsight (and possible gives them the deciding vote after the fact). Democrats in Michigan have proposed a 69-59 split of delegates, which only makes up 10 delegates for her. There has also been talk of seating Florida at 1/2 it regular delegation strength (106 delegates instead of 211), and using the uncontested results. It’s not clear that Obama’s camp would agree to this, but even still, that only gives her a 63-43 edge, another 20 delegates). So, even in the best case, Clinton can only make up another 30 delegates by seating Florida and Michigan, well less than the 180-190 delegate lead we might expect Obama to have.

DemocraticSPACE believes that Clinton should remain in the race until June 3, when all the primaries and caucuses are complete. But how Clinton conducts herself over the next three weeks will determine how quickly (or whether) Obama will be able to unify the party. Given the near-impossible odds of Clinton winning the nomination at this point, she would be wise to stick to promoting herself as a candidate, and continuing to raise the concerns of white, largely rural, working-class voters (although, as I’ve noted elsewhere, these aren’t the only voters that matter), rather than “going nuclear” to tarnish Obama’s image. This effort will keep pressure on Obama to broaden his appeal. Indeed, Clinton taking up the cause of rural working-class whites has forced Obama to make adjustments, and he has make been making some progress from Ohio to Pennsylvania to Indiana. If she can convince these voters that the Democratic Party will look after their interests, and she ultimately backs Obama 100%, many of these voters will follow her (although Democrats would be naive to believe that rural voters are going to abandon the Republicans en masse).

If she stays positive, there is some benefit for Democrats in both the short- and long-term. It will mean that ground operations will become more fully developed in the remaining five states (Puerto Rico doesn’t vote in the Presidential election) since Clinton and Obama will compete there, which has some added benefit for the fall general election, particularly in a battleground state like Oregon. Having competed across the country (unlike the Republicans who wrapped their nomination up early), the Democrats can more plausibly implement the 50-state approach that DNC Chairman Howard Dean has promoted. This might help in the short term in key states, but it really benefits the Democrats in the long term. Equally importantly, the 50-state approach feeds into Obama’s message of unity.

However, if Clinton goes highly negative — a scorched earth approach — she only damages her own reputation (reducing her chances of a VP spot, reducing her chances in 2012, and potentially damaging her credibility in the Senate) and opens up unnecessary divisions in the Democratic Party, jeopardizing the Party’s chances in November. So, much depends on Hillary’s approach over the coming weeks. If she takes the high road, Democrats will come together. If she takes the low road, then she will bear a lot of responsibility should the Democrats lose in November.