The key to the Democrats (likely under Barack Obama) win the White House rests on 3 key strategies, in order of importance:

1) Mobilizing huge turnout in the cities.
2) Winning over suburban independents.
3) Limiting their losses in rural America.

Urban America (more progressive), 30% of U.S. population: For the Democrats to win, they must mobilize urban America, which is traditionally strongly Democratic (even in states that otherwise lean Republican). Cities also have a higher share of African-American, Latino and other minority populations, which have typically supported the Dems. For the Dems to win, they need to register as many people as possible and get them to the polls on election day. The urban get-out-the-vote effort is paramount for the Dems.

Suburban America (more independent), 50% of U.S. population: Just as important, however, is the focus on winning over independents, who make up 38% of the electorate. Urban America leans Democrat and rural America leans Republican, but suburban America is where the highest share of independent voters reside. The suburbs are the true battlegrounds in November. Suburbs are by-and-large middle-class (although some are very wealthy and some are very poor), but span the spectrum from blue- to white-collar. For Dems to win here, they need to focus on meat-and-potato economic issues.

Rural America (more conservative), 20% of U.S. population: While much attention has been paid to the rural (overwhelmingly white) working-class in the Democratic race, the vast majority of this population leans Republican, largely because rural America is more socially conservative and Republicans have positioned themselves as defenders of traditional social values. The key here for Democrats is to limit their losses.

It should be clear that the more you appeal to Urban America (more progressive), the less you will appeal to Rural America (more conservative). The two are inversely proportional. So, strong appeals to conservatives will limit your appeal to progressives, and vice versa. So it is a delicate balance. But given the above core strategies, it is clear that Dems need to target states that have a larger share of urban and suburban population, and, of course, states that were very close in 2004. I will break down these battleground states and what the Dems have to do in them over the coming days.