Filed under: - 2008 Presidential Election, - Democrats, American Politics
FYI, an update. New polls now put Obama ahead of McCain in Ohio, so in a head-to-head with McCain in a general election, we now have:
Obama 293 vs. McCain 244
Clinton 271 vs. McCain 266
Obama currently leads McCain by 49 electoral college votes. Clinton leads McCain by 5 votes. The only states that Clinton is currently winning that Obama is not is Florida (where Obama is currently campaigning) and Arkansas (Clinton’s former state). But there are many states that Obama is currently winning that Clinton is not: Michigan, Washington, Wisconsin, Colorado, Oregon, Iowa, and New Mexico. And Obama is only behind in Nevada by 0.6% (Clinton is behind by 4.2%).
This is further evidence that Clinton’s argument that she is the better general election candidate is simply not true (while she is right that she does better than him in PA, OH and FL, Obama still carries PA and OH, but she is not carrying many other states). Below is the tally. Note that these are the battleground states that Obama or Clinton are currently winning; neither Obama nor Clinton are currently leading in Georgia (15 EV), North Carolina (15 EV), Virginia (13 EV), Missouri (11 EV), or Nevada (5 EV).
***
Obama beats in McCain in:
California (54.5/45.7 +8.8) — 55 EV
Pennsylvania (53.3/46.7 +6.6) — 21 EV
Ohio (50.7/49.3 +1.4) — 20 EV
Michigan (50.3/49.7 +0.6) — 17 EV
New Jersey (55.2/44.8 +10.4) — 15 EV
Washington (55.6/44.4 +11.2) — 11 EV
Minnesota (56.1/43.9 +12.2) — 10 EV
Wisconsin (50.9/49.1 +1.8) — 10 EV
Colorado (52.8/47.2 +5.6) — 9 EV
Oregon (55.8/44.2 +11.6) — 7 EV
Iowa (53.1/46.9 +6.2) — 7 EV
New Mexico (51.4/48.6 +2.8) — 5 EV
New Hampshire (50.2/49.8 +0.4) — 4 EV
–
TOTAL — Barack Obama 293 EV vs. John McCain 244 EV
Clinton beats in McCain in:
California (53.9/46.1 +7.8) — 55 EV
Florida (50.9/49.1 +1.8) — 27 EV
Pennsylvania (55.7/44.3 +11.4) — 21 EV
Ohio (55.1/44.9 +10.2) — 20 EV
New Jersey (53.0/47.0 +6.0) — 15 EV
Washington (50.9/49.1 +1.8) — 11 EV
Minnesota (52.8/47.2 +5.6) — 10 EV
Arkansas (57.4/42.6 +14.8) — 6 EV
New Hampshire (50.2/49.8 +0.4) — 4 EV
—
TOTAL — Hillary Clinton 271 EV vs. John McCain 266 EV
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