Obama to Win North Carolina, Clinton to Win Indiana
Tuesday May 06th 2008, 8:34 am
Filed under: - 2008 Presidential Election, - Democrats, American Politics

Our final projections for North Carolina and Indiana show that both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton will each be able to claim victory by the end of the night. We project the following:

North Carolina
Barack Obama — 54.7%63 delegates [range: 53.2% to 56.2% -- 61 to 64 delegates]
Hillary Clinton — 45.3%52 delegates [range: 43.8% to 46.8% -- 51 to 54 delegates]
Obama margin-of-victory — 9.4% [range: 6.4% to 12.4%]

Indiana
Hillary Clinton — 52.5%38 delegates [range: 51.0% to 54.0% -- 37 to 39 delegates]
Barack Obama — 47.5%34 delegates [range: 46.0% to 49.0% -- 33 to 35 delegates]
Clinton margin-of-victory — 5.0% [range: 2.0% to 8.0%]

As you can see, Obama is projected to win by anywhere from 6.4 to 12.4 points in North Carolina, but the most probable outcome is a 9.4 point margin of victory. Translating into delegates, Obama could pick up between 61 and 64 delegates, 7 to 13 more delegates than Clinton. Clinton is projected to win by anywhere from 2.0 to 8.0 points in Indiana, but the most probable outcome is a 5.0 point margin of victory. Clinton could pick up between 37 and 39 delegates, 2 to 6 more delegates than Clinton. So, overall, Obama is likely to come out of the night with anywhere from 1 to 15 more delegates.


2 Comments/commentaires
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You folks are way better than crunching numbers than I am; but you’re roughly in the range I think it will be in for both races ± 1%. If Obama does have a net gain in delegates after tonight, I think the remaining uncommitted PLEOs will pull Obama’s way and it will be game over.

Comment/commentaire by BlastFurnace 05.06.08 @ 12:15 pm

As the results show, Obama out-performed on May 6. Projected to win by 5 points, Clinton took Indiana by only 1.2% (about 14,000 votes). Projected to win by 9-10 points in North Carolina, Obama won by 14.3 points. It is the both the narrowness of Clinton’s win in Indiana and the strength of Obama’s win in North Carolina that has led many to conclude that Hillary’s chances of winning are significantly less after the May 6 contests than before them. In fact, winning by about 225,000 more votes in NC, Obama more than erased Clinton’s extra votes in Pennsylvania i.e. Clinton is worse off today than she was before PA.

Comment/commentaire by democraticspace 05.10.08 @ 4:28 pm



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