Filed under: - 2008 Presidential Election, - Democrats, American Politics
Our final projections for North Carolina and Indiana show that both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton will each be able to claim victory by the end of the night. We project the following:
North Carolina
Barack Obama — 54.7% — 63 delegates [range: 53.2% to 56.2% -- 61 to 64 delegates]
Hillary Clinton — 45.3% — 52 delegates [range: 43.8% to 46.8% -- 51 to 54 delegates]
Obama margin-of-victory — 9.4% [range: 6.4% to 12.4%]
Indiana
Hillary Clinton — 52.5% — 38 delegates [range: 51.0% to 54.0% -- 37 to 39 delegates]
Barack Obama — 47.5% — 34 delegates [range: 46.0% to 49.0% -- 33 to 35 delegates]
Clinton margin-of-victory — 5.0% [range: 2.0% to 8.0%]
As you can see, Obama is projected to win by anywhere from 6.4 to 12.4 points in North Carolina, but the most probable outcome is a 9.4 point margin of victory. Translating into delegates, Obama could pick up between 61 and 64 delegates, 7 to 13 more delegates than Clinton. Clinton is projected to win by anywhere from 2.0 to 8.0 points in Indiana, but the most probable outcome is a 5.0 point margin of victory. Clinton could pick up between 37 and 39 delegates, 2 to 6 more delegates than Clinton. So, overall, Obama is likely to come out of the night with anywhere from 1 to 15 more delegates.
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