If the polls are right, Barack Obama will win Oregon and Hillary Clinton will take Kentucky tomorrow. Here’s what we project, based on the available polling data:

Oregon
Barack Obama — 56.8% or 30 delegates (range: 55.1% to 58.5%; 29-31 delegates)
Hillary Clinton — 43.2% or 22 delegates (range: 41.5% to 44.9%; 21-23 delegates)
Margin of Victory — 13.6% (range: 10.2% to 17.0%)
Delegate Gain — 8 delegates (range 6 to 10 delegates)

Kentucky
Hillary Clinton — 66.4% or 34 delegates (range: 64.6% to 68.2%; 33-35 delegates)
Barack Obama — 33.6% or 17 delegates (range: 31.8% to 35.4%; 16-18 delegates)
Margin of Victory — 33.2% (range: 29.6% to 36.8%)
Delegate Gain — 17 delegates (range: 15 to 19 delegates)

Net Gain — Clinton 9 delegates (range: 5 to 13 delegates)

As you can see Clinton is expected to win Kentucky by a blow-out of between 30-37 points (33-34 is most likely), while Obama is projected to win Oregon by a much smaller margin, 10-17 points (13-14 is most likely). Clinton’s larger margin of victory means she’ll end up with a net gain on the night of between 5 and 13 delegates (9 is most average) — making only a small dent in Obama’s current 192-delegate lead, leaving Obama up by at least 180 delegates.

We project Obama will win 45-49 delegates on the night (47 is the average), giving Obama between 1655-1659 pledged delegates. Given 3253 total pledged delegates, with these projected results, Obama can claim he’s won a majority of the elected delegates (1627 is needed). In fact, with just 86 total pledged delegates yet to be awarded in Puerto Rico (55, June 1), Montana (16, June 3) and South Dakota (15, June 3), it is clear that after tomorrow, Clinton cannot mathematically catch Obama in elected delegates. Moreover, since April 1, Obama has won over three-quarters of superdelegates (71 to 22). With about 210 superdelegates yet to declare, a similar split would give Obama another 160 delegates to Hillary’s 50 — a gain of 110. That would leave Obama with a lead of almost 300 delegates.

There is no doubt that Michigan and Florida will be seated at the Democratic convention. The only question is how the delegates are split. But to be clear, Michigan and Florida cannot save Clinton. The most optimistic scenario for Clinton has the DNC adopting Michigan Democrats’ proposed 69-59 split in her favor and adopting a proposal to seat half of Florida’s delegation using the uncontested election results, giving her a roughly 63-43 split. So, even in the best case for Hillary, seating Michigan and Florida will yield a 132-102 split — that is, at best, Hillary gains 30 extra delegates on Obama — leaving Obama still almost 270 delegates ahead.

These numbers confirm that after tomorrow, it really is over for Clinton. She should remain in the race to compete in Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota, raising issues on behalf of those states, but after June 3, it is clear that she will suspend her campaign. Obama will be the Democratic Party nominee.