Comments on: Obama to Win Oregon; Clinton to Win Kentucky http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2008/05/obama-to-win-oregon-clinton-to-win-kentucky/ DemocraticSPACE is one of North America's leading non-partisan political websites. Fri, 12 Mar 2010 18:55:51 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: democraticspace http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2008/05/obama-to-win-oregon-clinton-to-win-kentucky/comment-page-1/#comment-793713 democraticspace Tue, 20 May 2008 22:51:39 +0000 http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2008/05/obama-to-win-oregon-clinton-to-win-kentucky/#comment-793713 i suspect that clinton is staying in to strengthen her case for the VP spot -- i.e. that obama has weaknesses among the white working-class and thus needs her (although, if that's the case, wouldn't a true blue-dog working-class democrat like jim webb not be better?). plus at this point, why not finish the last 3 contests? she's come this far. technically, <strong>obama won't be the "official" nominee until he is confirmed at the convention</strong>, the same as mccain. that's why they use the term "presumptive nominee". <strong>obama would become the "presumptive nominee" when he hits 2025 total delegates</strong> (elected + super). he currently has 1915, so needs 110 more (any combination of elected or super). he'll pick up almost half that tonight (45-49), then likely 10 each in montana and s dakota and 22-24 in puerto rico. that's about 90 more elected for obama. so he'd only need 20 out of the remaining 210 superdelegates to hit 2025. i.e. clinton would need to win 90% of the remaining superdelegates. <strong>if florida and michigan are seated as i've outlined above, the magic number jumps to 2142</strong> -- 2025 plus 1/2 (michigan + 1/2 florida). if obama gains about 100-105 delegates in michigan and florida, then he's at about 2110. so he would need only about 35 of the remaining 210 superdelegates. hillary would need to win about 85%. given that obama was won 75% of superdelegates since April 1, there's almost no chance that clinton can win 85-90% of the remaining superdelegates. fyi, <strong>this is exactly the same process that the Liberals use to select their leader</strong> -- elected delegates from each of the 308 ridings plus a few hundred "ex-officio" delegates -- party officials, leaders and former candidates (i.e. equivalent to the Dem superdelegates). i suspect that clinton is staying in to strengthen her case for the VP spot — i.e. that obama has weaknesses among the white working-class and thus needs her (although, if that’s the case, wouldn’t a true blue-dog working-class democrat like jim webb not be better?). plus at this point, why not finish the last 3 contests? she’s come this far.

technically, obama won’t be the “official” nominee until he is confirmed at the convention, the same as mccain. that’s why they use the term “presumptive nominee”.

obama would become the “presumptive nominee” when he hits 2025 total delegates (elected + super). he currently has 1915, so needs 110 more (any combination of elected or super). he’ll pick up almost half that tonight (45-49), then likely 10 each in montana and s dakota and 22-24 in puerto rico. that’s about 90 more elected for obama.

so he’d only need 20 out of the remaining 210 superdelegates to hit 2025. i.e. clinton would need to win 90% of the remaining superdelegates.

if florida and michigan are seated as i’ve outlined above, the magic number jumps to 2142 — 2025 plus 1/2 (michigan + 1/2 florida). if obama gains about 100-105 delegates in michigan and florida, then he’s at about 2110. so he would need only about 35 of the remaining 210 superdelegates. hillary would need to win about 85%.

given that obama was won 75% of superdelegates since April 1, there’s almost no chance that clinton can win 85-90% of the remaining superdelegates.

fyi, this is exactly the same process that the Liberals use to select their leader — elected delegates from each of the 308 ridings plus a few hundred “ex-officio” delegates — party officials, leaders and former candidates (i.e. equivalent to the Dem superdelegates).

]]> By: john olson http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2008/05/obama-to-win-oregon-clinton-to-win-kentucky/comment-page-1/#comment-793372 john olson Tue, 20 May 2008 20:48:52 +0000 http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2008/05/obama-to-win-oregon-clinton-to-win-kentucky/#comment-793372 What would make clinton stay in the if there is no chance of getting it. Is it that the delegate numbers are not official until some kind of roll call at the convention and that finishes it? OR does a small committee meet and look at the tea leaves and declare a winner? If so how did the dems. end up with such an odd system that seems to have the effect of making them look foolish. What would make clinton stay in the if there is no chance of getting it. Is it that the delegate numbers are not official until some kind of roll call at the convention and that finishes it? OR does a small committee meet and look at the tea leaves and declare a winner? If so how did the dems. end up with such an odd system that seems to have the effect of making them look foolish.

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