Clinton Needs 86% of Remaining Superdelegates to Win
Sunday June 01st 2008, 12:12 am
Filed under: - 2008 Presidential Election, - Democrats, American Politics

Note: I will update superdelegates in the calculations below as they change between now and the last primary/caucus on Tuesday.

With the resolution of the Florida and Michigan now complete (giving Clinton a net gain of 24 delegates), Barack Obama currently has 2,051 delegates (1,722 elected, 329 superdelegates) to Hillary Clinton’s 1,875 (1,586 election, 289 superdelegates), a lead of 176.

If Clinton wins Puerto Rico 60-40, a reasonable estimate, she would likely win 32 delegates to Obama’s 23, a gain of 9. His lead drops to 167 after Sunday.

And if Obama wins Montana and South Dakota 60-40, again a reasonable estimate, he would likely win 19 delegates to Clinton’s 11, a gain of 8. His lead increases to 175 after Tuesday.

So after the last primary/caucus on Tuesday, Obama would have 2,093 delegates and Clinton would have 1,918 delegates. Currently, there are 179 undeclared superdelegates. Therefore, Obama would need 25 (14% of the remaining superdelegates) superdelegates to reach the magic number of 2,118 to clinch the nomination. Clinton would need 154 (86% of the remaining superdelegates) to win.


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