Prime Minister Stephen Harper has called 3 by-elections to fill vacancies in the ridings of Westmount-Ville Marie, Saint-Lambert and Guelph.

Westmount-Ville Marie is a central urban Montréal riding, part of the West Montréal region. It is highly anglophone and highly affluent, and as such, is it very atypical for Québec. It is probably a safe Liberal seat, especially with star candidate Marc Garneau as their candidate. However, it should be an interesting race for second place, with the NDP, Conservatives and even the Greens making a strong push. The NDP is running Anne Lagacé Dowson, the Conservatives are running Guy Dufort, and the Bloc is running Charles Larivée. Deputy Party leader and media personality Claude William Genest is running for the Greens.

Saint-Lambert is a suburban Montréal riding (South Shore), part of the broader Montérégie region, and should be interesting to watch. It has been a strong Bloc seat of late, but had previously been a Liberal riding. Moreover, the strong showing of the conservative-leaning ADQ in the 2007 provincial election in the Montérégie region southeast of Montréal could be a harbinger of a strong Conservative showing in the riding. Candidates are Josée Beaudin (Bloc Québécois), Patrick Clune (Conservative), Roxanne Stanners (Liberal), Richard Marois (NDP) and TBA (Green).

But, by far, the most interesting race will be in Guelph, where the Liberals, Conservatives, NDP and Greens will run fully-funded campaigns, setting up the possibility of a low plurality win, as votes are split 4 ways. Guelph is a single, mid-sized-city riding that has a mixed urban, suburban, and rural character. It is a college town, home to the University of Guelph and its agriculture/natural science focus. It is typically a swing riding that leans Liberal federally and Progressive Conservative provincially (it also went NDP in the surprise provincial election of the NDP in 1990). The Greens are also making a big push here, as the Green candidate won almost 20% of the vote in the 2007 provincial election. Candidates are Frank Valeriote (Liberal), Gloria Kovach (Conservative), Tom King (NDP), and Mike Nagy (Green).

Below are our latest aggregated poll numbers — as you can see, the seat projections look very much like the 2006 election. Note: the reliability of the polling increases as the frequency between polls decreases (and as you can see, polling is pretty sparse these days, so please keep this in mind). Also, these projections by-and-large don’t take into account adjustments for candidates (since not all are nominated). As usual, projections are a snapshot in time, not a prediction of the future. Seat projections are given in parenthesis.

National (8 Jun - 10 Jul, +/- 1.4%)
Conservative — 32.1% (128 seats)
Liberal — 31.1% (106 seats)
NDP — 17.1% (27 seats)
Green — 9.4% (0 seats)
Bloc — 9.2% (45 seats)
Other — 1.0% (2 seats)

Ontario (29 May - 10 Jul, +/- 2.3%)
Liberal — 38.5% (54 seats)
Conservative — 33.3% (41 seats)
NDP — 16.6% (11 seats)
Green — 10.7% (0 seats)
Other — 0.9% (0 seats)

Québec (29 May - 10 Jul, +/- 2.9%)
Bloc — 36.9% (45 seats)
Liberal — 23.7% (18 seats)
Conservative — 20.0% (11 seats)
NDP — 11.0% (0 seats)
Green — 7.5% (0 seats)
Other — 1.0% (1 seat)

British Columbia (19 May - 10 Jul, +/- 3.9%)
Conservative — 36.2% (19 seats)
Liberal — 26.5% (9 seats)
NDP — 22.5% (8 seats)
Green — 13.6% (0 seats)
Other — 1.2% (0 seats)

Alberta (8 May - 10 Jul, +/- 4.5%)
Conservative — 60.6% (28 seats)
Liberal — 17.4% (0 seats)
Green — 11.2% (0 seats)
NDP — 9.3% (0 seats)
Other — 1.6% (0 seats)

Prairies (8 May - 10 Jul, +/- 5.8%)
Conservative — 41.6% (19 seats)
Liberal — 28.8% (5 seats)
NDP — 21.8% (4 seats)
Green — 6.0% (0 seats)
Other — 1.7% (0 seats)

Atlantic Canada (19 May - 10 Jul, +/- 5.7%)
Liberal — 38.2% (18 seats)
Conservative — 33.1% (10 seats)
NDP — 21.5% (3 seats)
Green — 6.6% (0 seats)
Other — 0.6% (1 seats)

Last updated: July 31, 2008

If the Presidential election was held today, Barack Obama would win — 322 electoral college votes to John McCain’s 216. Here is the latest state-by-state breakdown (sorted from most to least electoral college votes). Note: the number in parenthesis is the percentage lead the candidate is ahead and EV means electoral college votes. Top battleground states (where margin-of-victory is 5% or less) are highlighted in red.

Obama beats in McCain in:

California (+15.3) — 55 EV
New York (+20.4) — 31 EV
Illinois (+21.0) — 21 EV
Pennsylvania (+7.4) — 21 EV
Ohio (+0.5) — 20 EV
Michigan (+4.3) — 17 EV
New Jersey (+9.6) — 15 EV
Virginia (+1.0) — 13 EV
Massachusetts (+18.7) — 12 EV
Washington (+10.6) — 11 EV
Indiana (+0.5) — 11 EV
Minnesota (+5.3) — 10 EV
Wisconsin (+10.7) — 10 EV
Colorado (+1.7) — 9 EV
Connecticut (+20.0) — 7 EV
Oregon (+6.7) — 7 EV
Iowa (+7.4) — 7 EV
Nevada (+1.7) — 5 EV
New Mexico (+5.2) — 5 EV
New Hampshire (+1.4) — 4 EV
Maine (+11.0) — 4 EV
Rhode Island (+22.4) — 4 EV
–
TOTAL — Barack Obama 322 EV

McCain beats in Obama in:

Texas (+10.5) — 34 EV
Florida (+0.5) — 27 EV
North Carolina (+3.7) — 15 EV
Georgia (+7.0) — 15 EV
Missouri (+2.0) — 11 EV
Tennessee (+16.0) — 11 EV
Arizona (+10.0) — 10 EV
Louisiana (+16.7) — 9 EV
Alabama (+20.0) — 9 EV
Kentucky (+14.0) — 8 EV
South Carolina (+9.4) — 8 EV
Oklahoma (+29.0) — 7 EV
Mississippi (+11.3) — 6 EV
Kansas (+14.7) — 6 EV
Arkansas (+16.3) — 6 EV
Utah (+23.3) — 5 EV
Nebraska (+18.7) — 5 EV
West Virginia (+13.0) — 5 EV
Idaho (+14.5) — 4 EV
Montana (+5.3) — 3 EV
Wyoming (+16.0) — 3 EV
North Dakota (+1.0) — 3 EV
South Dakota (+8.8) — 3 EV
Alaska (+7.0) — 3 EV
—
TOTAL – John McCain 216 EV

Note
Unpolled safe Democrat states (23 EV)
Maryland (10), Hawaii (4), Vermont (3), Delaware (3), and DC (3).