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Obama Leads McCain
Tuesday July 15th 2008, 1:23 pm
Filed under: American Politics, - 2008 Presidential Election

Last updated: July 31, 2008

If the Presidential election was held today, Barack Obama would win — 322 electoral college votes to John McCain’s 216. Here is the latest state-by-state breakdown (sorted from most to least electoral college votes). Note: the number in parenthesis is the percentage lead the candidate is ahead and EV means electoral college votes. Top battleground states (where margin-of-victory is 5% or less) are highlighted in red.

pres-jul18.png

Obama beats in McCain in:

California (+15.3) — 55 EV
New York (+20.4) — 31 EV
Illinois (+21.0) — 21 EV
Pennsylvania (+7.4) — 21 EV
Ohio (+0.5) — 20 EV
Michigan (+4.3) — 17 EV
New Jersey (+9.6) — 15 EV
Virginia (+1.0) — 13 EV
Massachusetts (+18.7) — 12 EV
Washington (+10.6) — 11 EV
Indiana (+0.5) — 11 EV
Minnesota (+5.3) — 10 EV
Wisconsin (+10.7) — 10 EV
Colorado (+1.7) — 9 EV
Connecticut (+20.0) — 7 EV
Oregon (+6.7) — 7 EV
Iowa (+7.4) — 7 EV
Nevada (+1.7) — 5 EV
New Mexico (+5.2) — 5 EV
New Hampshire (+1.4) — 4 EV
Maine (+11.0) — 4 EV
Rhode Island (+22.4) — 4 EV
–
TOTAL — Barack Obama 322 EV

McCain beats in Obama in:

Texas (+10.5) — 34 EV
Florida (+0.5) — 27 EV
North Carolina (+3.7) — 15 EV
Georgia (+7.0) — 15 EV
Missouri (+2.0) — 11 EV
Tennessee (+16.0) — 11 EV
Arizona (+10.0) — 10 EV
Louisiana (+16.7) — 9 EV
Alabama (+20.0) — 9 EV
Kentucky (+14.0) — 8 EV
South Carolina (+9.4) — 8 EV
Oklahoma (+29.0) — 7 EV
Mississippi (+11.3) — 6 EV
Kansas (+14.7) — 6 EV
Arkansas (+16.3) — 6 EV
Utah (+23.3) — 5 EV
Nebraska (+18.7) — 5 EV
West Virginia (+13.0) — 5 EV
Idaho (+14.5) — 4 EV
Montana (+5.3) — 3 EV
Wyoming (+16.0) — 3 EV
North Dakota (+1.0) — 3 EV
South Dakota (+8.8) — 3 EV
Alaska (+7.0) — 3 EV
—
TOTAL – John McCain 216 EV

Note
Unpolled safe Democrat states (23 EV)
Maryland (10), Hawaii (4), Vermont (3), Delaware (3), and DC (3).


4 Comments/commentaires
Leave a comment/Enregistrer un commentaire

Are you adjusting for the Wilder Effect?

Comment/commentaire by bigcitylib 07.12.08 @ 3:30 pm

There are no adjustments for the Wilder or Bradley effect, since the phenomenon is inconclusive.

Comment/commentaire by democraticspace 07.13.08 @ 9:57 am

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. Two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 20 legislative chambers (one house in Colorado, Arkansas, Maine, Massachusetts, North Carolina, and Washington, and two houses in Maryland, Illinois, Hawaii, California, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Vermont). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

Comment/commentaire by susan 07.14.08 @ 11:28 am

I don’t understand how a candidate can win the popular vote but not be president. It seems like a broke system to me.

Comment/commentaire by Stefan 07.23.08 @ 9:16 am

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