Last updated: Aug 18, 2008

If the Presidential election was held today, Barack Obama would win — 275 electoral college votes to John McCain’s 263. Here is the latest state-by-state breakdown (sorted from most to least electoral college votes). Note: the number in parenthesis is the percentage lead the candidate is ahead and EV means electoral college votes. Top battleground states (where margin-of-victory is 5% or less) are highlighted in red.

Obama beats in McCain in:

California (+15.3) — 55 EV
New York (+16.0) — 31 EV
Illinois (+21.7) — 21 EV
Pennsylvania (+6.8) — 21 EV
Michigan (+3.2) — 17 EV
New Jersey (+10.7) — 15 EV
Massachusetts (+12.6) — 12 EV
Washington (+10.5) — 11 EV
Indiana (+0.5) — 11 EV
Minnesota (+2.6) — 10 EV
Wisconsin (+7.2) — 10 EV
Connecticut (+18.6) — 7 EV
Oregon (+7.0) — 7 EV
Iowa (+5.7) — 7 EV
New Mexico (+5.2) — 5 EV
New Hampshire (+1.4) — 4 EV
Maine (+15.0) — 4 EV
Rhode Island (+22.4) — 4 EV
–
TOTAL — Barack Obama 275 EV

McCain beats in Obama in:

Texas (+10.5) — 34 EV
Florida (+1.8) — 27 EV
Ohio (+1.5) — 20 EV
North Carolina (+4.3) — 15 EV
Georgia (+6.3) — 15 EV
Virginia (+0.6) — 13 EV
Missouri (+2.3) — 11 EV
Tennessee (+15.3) — 11 EV
Arizona (+13.7) — 10 EV
Colorado (+0.5) — 9 EV
Louisiana (+16.7) — 9 EV
Alabama (+21.6) — 9 EV
Kentucky (+16.0) — 8 EV
South Carolina (+9.4) — 8 EV
Oklahoma (+29.0) — 7 EV
Mississippi (+11.3) — 6 EV
Kansas (+11.7) — 6 EV
Arkansas (+16.3) — 6 EV
Nevada (+2.4) — 5 EV
Utah (+23.3) — 5 EV
Nebraska (+18.7) — 5 EV
West Virginia (+13.0) — 5 EV
Idaho (+14.5) — 4 EV
Montana (+5.3) — 3 EV
Wyoming (+16.0) — 3 EV
North Dakota (+1.0) — 3 EV
South Dakota (+8.8) — 3 EV
Alaska (+7.0) — 3 EV
—
TOTAL – John McCain 263 EV

Note
Unpolled safe Democrat states (23 EV)
Maryland (10), Hawaii (4), Vermont (3), Delaware (3), and DC (3).