Update 1: Conservatives Edge Closer to Majority
Monday September 08th 2008, 11:39 am
Filed under: - 2008 Canada Election, Canadian Politics

According to the latest DemocraticSPACE projections, the Conservatives are edging closer to majority government territory (which requires 155 seats). Current projections put the Conservatives at 143 seats on 37.2% support, the Liberals at 94 seats on 28.1% support, the NDP at 29 seats on 17.4% support, the Bloc at 41 seats on 8.0% support (31.6% in Québec), and the Greens with no seats and 8.3% support. These projections are based on regional polling data for all major Canadian pollsters between 24 Aug and 6 Sep. Regional breakdowns are below.

Last Updated: 8 Sept
CURRENT PROJECTION
CONSERVATIVE LIBERAL NDP BLOC GREEN OTHERS
37.2% 28.1% 17.4% 8.0% 8.3% 1.0%
143 94 29 41 0 2

Ontario
The Conservatives are currently projecting at 49 seats on 37.7% support, the Liberals 46 seats on 35.7%, the NDP 11 seats on 15.6% and the Greens no seats on 10.1%.

Québec
The Bloc Québécois is currently projecting at 41 seats on 32.3% support, the Conservatives at 14 seats on 26.0% support, the Liberals 18 seats on 21.6%, the NDP 1 seat on 13.2%, and the Greens no seats on 6.0%.

British Columbia
The Conservatives are currently projecting at 22 seats on 39.9% support, the NDP 8 seats on 25.6%, the Liberals 5 seats on 21.7% and the Greens no seats on 11.5%.

Alberta
The Conservatives are currently projected to win all 28 seats on 61.1% support, the Liberals at 17.6%, and the NDP and Greens at 9.9%.

Prairies
The Conservatives are currently projected to win 20 seats on 43.7% support, the NDP 4 seats on 27.2%, the Liberals 4 seats on 21.6% and the Greens no seats on 5.7%.

Atlantic Canada
The Liberals are currently projected to win 19 seats on 36.0% support, the Conservatives 9 seats on 31.1%, the NDP 3 seats on 26.4% and the Greens no seats on 5.9%.


2 Comments/commentaires
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Les projections de début de campagne sont toujours intéressantes à regarder le lendemain du jour des élections. Toutefois trop d’éléments inconnus et trop d’imprévus peuvent survenir durant la campagne. Il m’apparait clair que ces projections seront dans l’analyse que les électeurs feront dans les 33 prochains jours. je vous invite à venir lire mon billet d’aujourd’hui sur mon blogue http://lumenlumen.blogspot.com/ qui pose la question suivante: Coïncidence ou stratégie: des élections au Canada et aux USA: Pourquoi?

Comment/commentaire by Luc Ménard 09.09.08 @ 8:18 am

Luc has a point that much can happen in the days ahead….In terms of total seats, my seat projection can be found at http://libertystorch.blogspot.com
I have the Tories well on track for a majority, however, I see them picking off quite a few more seats in Quebec than dies Greg at this point, and I see the Liberals losing even more in QC. Watch Honore Mercier, and the two west Island seats. I see the Grits as lilely to take papineau from the Bloc on the strength of justin Trudeau. But I digress… go see the numbers for yourself!

Comment/commentaire by Neal Ford 09.09.08 @ 12:19 pm



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