Greg the number for the liberals is a bit to low….using the nanos at 32% and decima at 28% – the two most recent ones would give the liberals 30% (averaging the two)…thus would imply a few more seats to the liberals….

Check his date data Francesco. Nanos’s poll today isn’t included in his projections

Greg, in previous elections you provided a riding by riding breakdown. Will you be doing that this time? I am very interested in your predictions for some key battlegrounds and my home riding.

Also, I am interested in who the two independents predicted to win are.

Statistically speaking, what is the threshold for the Greens to get a seat? Assuming that it would be in B.C., what regional breakdown would be required? I see that AngusReid has them at 12% in the province. Also, what would be the seat most likely to go Green?

Something doesn’t add up.
The NDP have: 11 (ON) + 1 (QC) + 8 (BC) + 4 (Pra) + 4 (Atl) = 28.
The Liberals have: 43(ON) + 18 (QC) + 5 (BC) + 4 (Pra) + 18 (Atl) = 88.

I’m guessing the territories is 2 Liberals and 1 NDP, so that leaves 1 mystery NDP somewhere.

BC, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada are all short 1 MP right now. Arthur in Quebec and Casey in NS, I’m guessing. That leaves a missing NDP in BC. So, that should be 9 NDP MPs in BC.

Andrew – yes, stay tuned for the new site to launch on Sept 14.

Chris – yes, 2 for Libs in the North, 1 for NDP. Yes, 9 for the NDP in BC. Yes, Arthur and Casey are currently projecting as independents.

dunkgreen — whether the Greens win a seat or not really depends on what happens in a couple key races; it’s not that dependent on the overall regional vote level. Best bets seems to be in Vancouver Centre and Central Nova.

Every time I read numbers like this, I want to scream, I mean our outdated voting system is a national disgrace. Compare numbers:

NDP @ 17.5% gets 8 fewer seats than the Bloc @ 8.6%
Greens get *no* seats while the Bloc gets *38*, yet they are in a dead heat for popular vote!

Makes me want to pull my hair out. We need to highlight these disparacies when publishing stats on seats, until we can’t take it any more.

Id love to see a Tory majority.

I dont think the Greens will win any seats.

Gerry, the problem is that all the proposals to fix our voting system do something Canadians do not want – create more minority governments. I’ve been pushing for years for a Japanese style parallel system that Canadians can accept, but many keep pushing for a New Zealand style MMP system that Canadians have already rejected again and again at the ballot box.

Hey Greg, I understand that you include the riding of André Arthur (Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier) into the number of seats you give to the PC in Quebec?

David – yes André Arthur is the independent seat in Québec.

Nick, I’m not clear that many are pushing for a New Zealand-style MMP system – that indeed was the proposal in Ontario, but I’ve never run across anyone suggesting that a single national list is appropriate for the Commons – the German and Japanese systems which have regional PR blocks seems much more appropriate, and is something that (I think) Greg proposed for Ontario as well a while back.

Greg,

I’m curious to know what everyone thinks of Preferential voting . I think it’s a brilliant system and would definitely lead to better, more accurate representation within the house of commons.

It wouldn’t be possible for right-wing Canadians (1 third of the country) to vote in a gov’t for the 2 thirds of the country that vote left-of-centre.

SUPPORT PREFERENTIAL VOTING! (wiki it to learn more)

Let’s hope for a Tory majority or else we will likely be back at the polls again in less than 2 years.

I would do anything — ANYTHING — to get Canada switched over to a preferential ballot.

I’ve been pushing for years for a Japanese style parallel system

Multi-member constituencies have been a disaster for Japan. As a candidate you end up competing against not just members of other parties, but members of your own party. The result is money politics on a scale that makes US elections look miserly in comparison, with vote buying and breathtaking levels of pork barrelling commonplace. The Japanese themselves are looking for a way out of it, but have so far failed to dislodge vested interests.

I’d like to try a PR or mixed PR/FPP system using national lists, but I definitely do not want multi-member constituencies.