Yesterday, I looked at Elizabeth May’s prospects in Saanich-Gulf Islands, and previously, asked whether Saanich was the right choice, by looking at some basic metrics. Today I thought it might be useful to look at Guelph, which quantitatively and qualitatively is a better choice.

Like Gary Lunn in Saanich-Gulf Islands, the Liberal candidate in Guelph typically follows the provincial trend (i.e. they get 95-99% in Guelph of what the Liberals get provincially) — 2004 (44.7% ON vs 44.6% Guelph), 2006 (39.9% ON vs 38.4% Guelph), 2008 (33.8% ON vs 32.2%). Note that this was true for both Brenda Chamberlain and Frank Valeriote. Guelph is noticeably worse for the Conservatives relative to the province as a whole — typically 15% worse but that jumped to 25% worse in 2008 — 2004 (31.5% ON vs 26.1% Guelph), 2006 (35.1% ON vs 29.8% Guelph), 2008 (39.2% ON vs 29.2% Guelph). Guelph has typically been about 10% above the provincial average for the NDP until 2008, when it fell to about 10% below average despite a star candidate — – 2004 (18.1% ON vs 20.0% Guelph), 2006 (19.4% ON vs 22.0% Guelph), 2008 (18.2% ON vs 16.5% Guelph). No doubt the weaker-than-usual results for all 3 parties is a direct result of the strength of the Green campaign. Given the Greens have built a strong base of support in Guelph, it’s highly unlikely that future trends will suddenly revert to 2004 and 2006 levels for the NDP and CPC.

Here is a comparison of recent results as well as current projections, both on a typical basis and making adjustments for May to give a best-case scenario.

As you can see, the Liberal vote has been in steady decline, mirroring Liberal fortunes across Ontario, while the Green vote has tripled its support in the riding, from 7% to 21%, coming up 10-11% short in 2008. The CPC and NDP have been up and down, but both preformed noticeably worse in 2008 than in previous years (compared to what they did provincially).

So what’s the current situation? An aggregate of recent polling data shows roughly the following in Ontario: LIB 39.3%, CPC 35.3%, NDP 14.3%, GPC 10.3%. Of course, we need to make some minor adjustments to this based on the differences between polling and voting patterns (this reflects the strength of GOTV operations, tendencies of some demographics to vote more than others, strategic voting, last-minute shifts, etc). Using the same methodology, here’s a comparison of the final aggregate polling averages vs. actual results: for 2008 — polling 34.2% LIB vs. 33.8% actual (-0.4); polling 34.1% CPC vs 39.2% actual (+5.1); polling 20.4% NDP vs 18.2% actual (-2.2); polling 10.3 GPC vs. 8.0% actual (-2.3), and for 2006 — polling 37.9% LIB vs 39.9% actual (+2.0); polling 36.1% CPC vs. 35.1% actual (-1.0); polling 20.1% NDP vs. 19.4% actual (-0.7); 5.5% GPC vs. 4.7% actual (-0.8). Given the advantage of incumbency, particularly with a shaky economy, I would estimate the CPC would see a bit of a bump over the polls, although probably not as high as in 2008. Consequently, I would see a slight decrease for the other 3 parties from current poll numbers (the NDP and GPC show a clear pattern of losing some support at the ballot box). So making adjustments, we might estimate current support in Ontario at: LIB 38.8%, CPC 36.8%, NDP 13.8%, GPC 9.8%. So, the NDP has dropped noticeably, and the Conservatives have also dropped. The Liberals and Greens are both up a bit.

Using this estimate and running the projection, we might estimate current support in Guelph at: LIB 36%, CPC 28%, GPC 22%, NDP 14%. The NDP may seem low, but as noted above, last time they ran 10% below the provincial average and previously were only 10% above average, so the riding is probably no better than average for the NDP; given they are currently running below 14% in the polls, 14% seems about right. So with a typical candidate, the Greens might need to close a gap of about 8,400 votes.

However, we can expect May to deliver personal votes. As I noted with Saanich, a reasonable estimate might be a premium of about 8%, similar to what Ed Broadbent delivered for the NDP in Ottawa Centre in 2004. This also includes the benefit of spending to the maximum. This is, of course, an estimate, but it is a reasonable one given past data.

As I noted in Saanich, Greens tend to draw more heavily from the NDP, although Ontario Conservatives are probably marginally more likely to shift to the Greens than their B.C. counterparts (as they are more likely to be “Progressive” Conservatives than in B.C.). So we might estimate that an 8-point bump for May would result in a 4-point drop for the NDP, a 2-point drop for the Liberals and a 2-point drop for the Conservatives. Of course, detailed polling in Guelph can give us a more precise pciture, but this is probably pretty close to what you might expect.

So, the current best case scenario for the Greens, assuming a fully-funded campaign and May able to deliver personal votes is: LIB 34%, GPC 30%, CPC 26%, NDP 10%. What this suggests is the possibility of a large numbers of NDP supporters lining up behind May, potentially collapsing the NDP to some degree, given the sliding fortunes of their own party in the riding, and the prospect of potentially defeating both the Conservatives and Liberals.

That leaves a gap of only 2,400 votes, about one-third of the gap in a best-case scenario in Saanich. Of course, closing the gap requires a strong local operation in either case. But unlike in Saanich, which hasn’t extensively canvassed the riding nor IDed large numbers of supporters, Guelph’s local team that has already canvassed a sizable portion of the riding and IDed several thousand Green supporters from which to build their campaign team.

But more importantly, unlike in Saanich, where the incumbent is a Conservative, in Guelph the incumbent is a Liberal. This is an important difference because we know from polling data that Greens in B.C. don’t draw much from the Conservatives, so closing the gap requires siphoning off Liberal and NDP votes. They would still need to siphon off Liberal and NDP votes in Guelph, but Greens in Ontario draw more votes from Liberals than Greens in B.C. draw from Conservatives (which is almost nil). But a key difference is that any votes drawn from the Liberals does double duty in Guelph — it increases the Green vote but also lowers the Liberal vote, thus closing the gap twice as much. So quite literally siphoning Liberal votes in Guelph counts for twice as much as siphoning Liberal votes in Saanich. So, the Greens could close the 2,400 vote gap by swaying just 1,200 Liberals to vote Green.

There is ample ammunition to do so, since Guelph Liberals are typically fairly progressive and share many of the environmental concerns of Greens. Unlike in 2006, when the Liberals ran on a largely “green” platform, the Liberals under Michael Ignatieff are seen to be more to the right and less green (Ignatieff’s defense of the tar sands being a perfect theme to hit home). This plays to May’s advantage — she could run on her strength, the environment.

But of course, not all the 2,400 vote gap need come at the expense of the Liberals. The Greens would have a strong case to make to NDPers that May is their best option. As we saw even in Central Nova, May is a vote magnet for Dipper votes, especially if she’s seen as the candidate best placed to knock off the incumbent. And even a couple hundred progressive Conservatives (particularly female baby boomers) might be willing to vote for May, particularly if a Liberal could be defeated and their own candidate is seen to be in arrears of May. So if the Greens can convert about 15% of the remaining Dippers (about 800 votes) and 5% of the remaining Conservatives (another 800 votes), then the gap is down to 800, and the Greens need only convert 400 Liberals to be in a dead-heat. All of this could be done using the data gathered from the phone and foot canvass and targeting specific neighborhoods with specific issues, using spatial mapping.

So, as you can see, there is a viable path to victory for May in Guelph. It wouldn’t be easy, of course, but they have the strongest on-the-ground team of any Green campaign in the country. So if any Green team can close a 2,400 vote gap, it’s this one. And since they still have another 75% of the riding to canvass (vs essentially 100% for Saanich), there is plenty more growth potential for the Guelph Greens. For example, the Green team largely concentrated their efforts last time in Guelph’s core, in areas of traditional NDP support, while canvassing virtually none of the more Conservative periphery, or traditional Liberal areas. So there is more support to pick up at the expense of both Liberals and Conservatives.

The path to victory is simply far easier for May in Guelph than in Saanich, and Guelph allows the Greens to build upon the work that has already been done, with people who know the riding (vs. bringing in her own team in Saanich that doesn’t). As I previously noted, the problem is that May doesn’t want to go to Guelph for personal and political reasons and the Guelph Greens don’t want her. It’s a devastating situation for a party looking to win its first seat to have its best candidate not able to run in its best riding. But this is not intractable, as the Guelph team would back her if she reached out to them. Elizabeth May and Mike Nagy (and the rest of the Guelph team) would have to sit down and work out their differences; but this would require May to make the first move. Healing this rift would do wonders for party unity, and bring together countless volunteers from across Southern Ontario (much as she enjoyed in London North Centre).

Do I see that happening? No, unless May does some serious self-reflection. Despite many great qualities, May also has many demons — and one thing she does not do well is listen to informed advice nor change her mind even with compelling evidence to the contrary. Nobody can nor should try to force May to run in Guelph. But since nothing has been made public regarding Saanich, it’s not too late for her to step back, look at the big picture, and recognize this is the last chance she has to been a parliamentarian (and thus effect the course of Canadian history, particularly on the environment). The overwhelming evidence says that Guelph is the best choice.

The Saanich vs Guelph analyses I’ve presented obviously involve assumptions and speculation, but this is something I’ve been doing for quite a while now and, it is also fundamentally data-driven. For comparison purposes, here is what I had predicted prior to Elizabeth May’s previous two attempts to win a seat, in London North Centre and Central Nova.

As you can see, I slightly underestimated May’s vote by about two percent in London North Centre and slightly overestimated her vote by the same in Central Nova. But it’s pretty damn close.

To conclude, I’m willing to predict at this stage, if there is a fall election and May runs in Saanich-Gulf Islands, she will lose and her political career will be over. If she makes peace with the locals and runs in Guelph, by building upon the work already done in a Green-friendly riding, she may well come out as the first Green elected to the Canadian parliament. We shall see how it plays out, but I would hate to say a few months from now — as I’ve unfortunately said before — that I told you so.