Interesting piece in the National Post today on the possibility that pensions could prevent a fall election:

One out of five MPs in the House of Commons can boost their chances of receiving a lucrative pension by preventing a fall election and ensuring the current Parliament survives at least until July 2010, a survey by Canwest News Service reveals.

The survey examined the number of MPs who were first elected in June 2004 and are less than a year away from having the six years of service required to qualify for a government pension that can kick in at age 55.

It found that 74 MPs with several years of experience could find themselves without a pension, if they fail to hold onto their seats, and in the same boat as those elected for the first time in the 2008 election.

About half (36) the effected MPs are Conservatives (about 1/4 of their caucus) and 16 are Bloc Quebecois (1/3 of their caucus), 14 are Liberals (about 1/5th of their caucus) and 8 are Dippers (about 1/5th of their caucus).

Will this have any impact on whether there is a fall election or not? I doubt it, but there could be some internal pressure on the leaders. What do you think?

Here are the latest Canadian polling numbers for the 6 national pollsters. I’ll update this when Harris-Decima and Ipsos release new polls.

DATE / POLLSTER / CPC / LPC / NDP / BQ / GPC
Sep 7 / Strategic Counsel / 35 / 30 / 14 / 12 / 9
Sep 2 / Nanos / 37.5 / 33.4 / 14.8 / 9.7 / 4.6
Sep 2 / Angus Reid / 33 / 32 / 19 / 9 / 7
Sep 1 / Ekos / 32.6 / 32.6 / 16.5 / 8.3 / 9.9
Aug 24 / Harris-Decima / 31 / 32 / 16 / 9 / 11
Aug 24 / Ipsos / 39 / 28 / 14 / 8 / 10

Allowing for 1.2% for “others” (same as 2008), here’s where things currently stand:

Conservative – 34.5%
Liberal – 31.0%
NDP – 15.6%
Bloc – 9.2%
Green – 8.5%
Others – 1.2%

Of course, there are always differences between even the very latest polls and what happens in an election — due to last-minute shifts, differences in get-out-the-vote operations, differences in turnout between demographic groups, etc. Here’s the shift we saw from the last polling average to the actual results:

PARTY / POLLING / ACTUAL / DIFFERENCE
Conservative / 34.33 / 37.65 / +3.32
Liberal / 26.89 / 26.26 / -0.63
NDP / 19.20 / 18.18 / -1.02
Bloc / 9.67 / 9.98 / +0.31
Green / 8.76 / 6.78 / -1.98

FYI, if we see a similar difference between final polling and actual results as we did in 2008, i.e. applying the difference to the current polling, we would get the following (change from 2008 in parenthesis):

Conservative – 37.8% (+0.1)
Liberal – 30.4% (+4.1)
NDP – 14.6% (-3.6)
Bloc – 9.5% (-0.5)
Green – 6.5% (-0.3)
Others – 1.2%

Word today is that the Liberals will move to topple the Harper government at their earliest opportunity. Let me say this, if the Liberals force a fall election, it will be a strategic error.

Politicos in Ottawa don’t always have the best read on average Canadians. I think the Liberals under-estimate how sick Canadians are of the political bickering and constant elections that have come with 5 years of minority government. I doubt Canadians love the Conservatives, but they are probably seen right now as the best of a bad lot. They’ve taken a low-risk approach to governing, nothing overly ambitious by any stretch, but at the same time I think most people would say they haven’t done a terrible job either — no major scandals like the previous Liberal government and the economy is showing signs of recovering.

The Liberals need to think about the ballot question. Had the Liberals pulled the plug in February/March after the Conservatives handed down a budget, they might have been able to make a case that the Conservatives were simply too incompetent to be trusted with the economy — after all, only months earlier, Harper argued there wasn’t a problem, that Canada was doing just fine, and even produced a fall budget update that stretched credibility by showing balanced books. The economy in the spring was still in decline and job losses were mounting. But since then, to the average voter, the Conservatives have put in place measures to stimulate the economy (recall most Canadians approved of the revised budget).

Most Canadians will ask “why are we having another election, when we just had one last year?” I think most people will conclude it’s not over anything they will think is worth having a 4th election in 5 years over, but rather because of political gamesmanship. That doesn’t bode well for the Liberals, and even suggests that voters might be willing to finally hand the Conservatives a majority to bring about more stability after 3 consecutive minorities.

Is the economy the ballot issue? (probably) If so, that doesn’t favour the Liberals. Canadians still trust the Conservatives on the economy more than the Liberals. Is it about the environment? Unlikely, the Liberals tried to make that the issue last time but the downturn in the economy overshadowed that; even still, Canadians trust the Greens the most on the environment. Could the Liberals try to piggy-back on the U.S. debate over healthcare and make it the ballot issue? Seems like a stretch. Besides, the NDP is generally viewed as best able to handle that file. Crime? It’s mostly a localized issue and the Conservatives win that issue.

The fact is, the Liberals don’t have an issue to run on right now, and they aren’t seen by Canadians as best able to lead on a single issue. And elections are won or lost on pretty basic messages.

Moreover, while the Liberals enjoyed a bump in the polls in the spring, after Ignatieff was crowned leader, they have done little to build upon or even maintain that support. The polling trend is not favourable for the Liberals, as the Conservatives have rebounded and now lead the Liberals by a few points; in fact, we’re back to were we were last fall. Liberals have deployed their spinsters by arguing the summer is rarely a time when the opposition is in the headlines, so it’s natural to see some falloff, and that’s true to a certain extent. But it doesn’t change the fact that Ignatieff remains largely an unknown to the average voter. And the record of rookie leaders winning elections their first time isn’t good.

The fact is, Canadians need more time to get to know Ignatieff. The Liberals have not yet offered a platform that charts a significantly different course than the Conservatives, and while his approval ratings/positive impressions are greater than his much-maligned predecessor Stephane Dion, they aren’t as high as Harper’s. So if the Liberals are counting on making the election about leadership, I think Canadians will go with the devil they know over the devil they don’t.

So I think that if the Liberals do force a fall election, Stephen Harper may well finally get the majority that has eluded him for so long.