Here are the latest Canadian polling numbers for the 6 national pollsters. I’ll update this when Harris-Decima and Ipsos release new polls.

DATE / POLLSTER / CPC / LPC / NDP / BQ / GPC
Sep 7 / Strategic Counsel / 35 / 30 / 14 / 12 / 9
Sep 2 / Nanos / 37.5 / 33.4 / 14.8 / 9.7 / 4.6
Sep 2 / Angus Reid / 33 / 32 / 19 / 9 / 7
Sep 1 / Ekos / 32.6 / 32.6 / 16.5 / 8.3 / 9.9
Aug 24 / Harris-Decima / 31 / 32 / 16 / 9 / 11
Aug 24 / Ipsos / 39 / 28 / 14 / 8 / 10

Allowing for 1.2% for “others” (same as 2008), here’s where things currently stand:

Conservative – 34.5%
Liberal – 31.0%
NDP – 15.6%
Bloc – 9.2%
Green – 8.5%
Others – 1.2%

Of course, there are always differences between even the very latest polls and what happens in an election — due to last-minute shifts, differences in get-out-the-vote operations, differences in turnout between demographic groups, etc. Here’s the shift we saw from the last polling average to the actual results:

PARTY / POLLING / ACTUAL / DIFFERENCE
Conservative / 34.33 / 37.65 / +3.32
Liberal / 26.89 / 26.26 / -0.63
NDP / 19.20 / 18.18 / -1.02
Bloc / 9.67 / 9.98 / +0.31
Green / 8.76 / 6.78 / -1.98

FYI, if we see a similar difference between final polling and actual results as we did in 2008, i.e. applying the difference to the current polling, we would get the following (change from 2008 in parenthesis):

Conservative – 37.8% (+0.1)
Liberal – 30.4% (+4.1)
NDP – 14.6% (-3.6)
Bloc – 9.5% (-0.5)
Green – 6.5% (-0.3)
Others – 1.2%