I think your analysis is correct: there may indeed be some internal pressure in the parties, but it ultimately comes down to the leaders. All four party leaders have painted themselves into a corner on this one, so they all need an election to happen in order to save face.

With the Conservative MP going against an election and the BQ MPs likely to be re-elected, there are about 22 Liberal and NDP MPs that might be affected. Of those 22, half are probably in safe seats. Only 11 MPs are under threat to lose their pensions.

Keep in mind, that 74 numbers only includes those MPs who were first elected in 2004. That doesn’t include those MPs first elected in 2006 ot 2008 (which roughly half of the NDP caucus) and probably includes probably a dozen or so MPs for each of the Liberals or bloc.

It may play out through absences. MP’s attendence, gernally, is pretty low, and I gather for the Bloc it’s particularly low.

While the Bloc as a group isn’t likely to lose a lot of seats, the most likely result is that they’d lose some seats to the Liberals around montreal, while picking up seats from the conservatives around Quebec City (though, given recent trends in both Liberal and Conservative polling numbers, that outcome is perhaps less likely than it was a couple of months ago). Since any recently elected Bloc MPs probably took their seats from the Grits, they may well have something to lose in this election, even if the Bloc as a whole doesn’t.

Similarly, a lot of NDP MP’s are probably running since they’re unlikely to repeat last year’s performance.

You wonder if the house is going to get hit with an epidemic of “swine-flu” (of one kind or another) this week.

And please forgive the illiteracy of that last post.

I think this news story is a little more cynical than reality merits, although it shouldn’t surprise anyone to see such a big deal made of supposedly “rotten human nature” and the belief that “all politicians are corrupt” by Canwest and the National Post.

Even if we assume naked self-interest is at play, a BQ politician has a lot to lose if they are seen benefiting from federal programs; an NDP politician has a lot to lose if they sacrifice principles for personal gain; it’s also highly likely that Conservative and Liberal MPs have already secured good pensions before entering politics, some of whom are wealthy enough that they don’t even need a pension.

Even if these reasons aren’t enough, most of the MPs in question here are back-benchers who, even if applying pressure on their caucuses, would hold little sway in this particular instance. Can you imagine a few rookie MPs pleading, “you can’t call an election or else I won’t get my pension,” and their respective leaders capitulating, “good point, we better avoid an election at all costs.” Give me a break. There are bigger things at stake.

A fall election will probably be delayed, if not prevented, if the NDP can extract EI reforms out of the Conservatives. Apply self-interest to this manoeuver, if you will, but whatever one makes of it, it would be good politics for both of those parties (the NDP gets something for its constituents and the Conservatives get to continue governing). More importantly, it would be good policy to ease access to the EI system, especially for Canadian workers who’ve been paying into it for years and have lost their jobs due to no fault of their own.