cross-posted from the DemocraticSPACE 41st Canadian Election site

New polls by Nanos and Ekos show a slight dip for the Conservatives. The latest aggregate polling between Oct 4-20 gives the following projections:

CONSERVATIVE / 40.4% / 146 seats
LIBERAL / 28.4% / 90 seats
NDP / 14.2% / 28 seats
BLOC / 9.1% / 44 seats
GREEN / 6.8% / 0 seats

Correcting the under-representation of fast-growing provinces (ON, BC, AB) makes it easier for the Conservatives to win a majority government, because these are regions where the Conservatives are strongest. This move would change the electoral math in Canada, making it easier for the Conservatives to win a majority without a breakthrough in Quebec. An article a while back in the Globe & Mail summarizes one possible scenario for increasing the size of parliament.

Under the Globe’s scenario, Ontario would gain 21 seats, BC 7 and Alberta 6. All others would remain the same. That would result in a 342-member parliament, 34 more or about 10% larger than today.

From where would these 34 seats come? I looked at regions with ridings that significantly exceeded the average for population — adding more ridings in these regions would bring those ridings back down to average. I also estimated which parties would likely win these extra seats. The results are below…

ALBERTA (+6)
Calgary — +2 seats; CPC 2
Edmonton — +2 seats; CPC 2
Rural Alberta — +2 seats; CPC 2
>>> TOTAL: CPC 6

BRITISH COLUMBIA (+7)
Vancouver/Burnaby — +2; LPC 1, NDP 1
Lower Mainland — +2; CPC 1, LPC 1
North Shore — +1; CPC 1
Vancouver Island — +1; CPC 1
Interior — +1; CPC 1
>>> TOTAL: CPC 4, LPC 2, NDP 1

ONTARIO (+21)
Peel Region — +3; LPC 2, CPC 1
York Region — +3; CPC 2, LPC 1
Toronto — +3; LPC 2; NDP 1
Halton Region — +2; CPC 2
Ottawa — +2; CPC 1; LPC 1
Durham Region — +1; CPC 1
Simcoe/Barrie — +1; CPC 1
Kitchener/Waterloo — +1; CPC 1
Hamilton/Brant — +1; LPC 1
Niagara — +1; CPC 1
Windsor — +1; NDP 1
Southwestern Ontario — +1; CPC 1
Central-East Ontario — +1; CPC 1
>>> TOTAL: CPC 12, LPC 7, NDP 2

>>> GRAND TOTAL: CPC 22, LPC 9, NDP 3

Now add these totals to our latest seat projections:

CONSERVATIVE — 40.8%, 152 seats + 22 seats = 174 seats
LIBERAL — 27.4%, 84 seats + 9 seats = 93 seats
NDP — 13.9%, 27 seats + 3 seats = 30 seats
BLOC — 9.3%, 45 seats + 0 seats = 45 seats
GREEN — 7.5%, 0 seats + 0 seats = 0 seats

The new parliament would require 172 seats for a clear majority. So adding 34 seats to the parliament, even with no change in support, moves the Conservatives from a couple seats short of a majority (at 40.8% support) to a couple seats above a majority.

It’s a no-brainer for the Conservatives, strategically. The Bloc would surely oppose it. But the Liberals and NDP certainly couldn’t argue against short-changing Ontario and B.C. So democratic reform, i.e. correcting the under-representation of Alberta, B.C., and Ontario, gives the Conservative a bit of help in moving towards a majority.

cross-posted from DemocraticSPACE’s 41st Canadian Election site

Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are on the cusp of majority territory, according to the latest DemocraticSPACE projections. Taking into account polls conducted by Angus Reid, Ekos, Harris-Decima, and Ipsos (the latest Nanos poll is over a month old, so we’ve included and additional Ekos poll through Oct 6 instead) — including polls ending Oct 6 through Oct 14 — we currently project the following:

CONSERVATIVE / 40.8% / 152 seats
LIBERAL / 27.4% / 84 seats
NDP / 13.9% / 27 seats
BLOC / 9.3% / 45 seats
GREEN / 7.5% / 0 seats

Traditionally, a party in Canada has been able to win a majority with 40% of the vote, but the Conservative vote is not entirely efficient. The Conservatives run up big raw vote numbers in Alberta, B.C. and the Prairies, but they are winning almost as many seats as they can, so additional vote doesn’t necessarily translate into more seats. So, the Conservatives probably need an extra 1-1.5 points nationally to win a majority.

Interestingly, these results show how the Conservatives can win a weak majority without a breakthrough in Quebec. In fact, current projections show the Conservatives losing 1 seat in Quebec. The Conservatives are able to come close to a majority by winning many close seats in Ontario’s 905 region, as well as dominating in the West. Atlantic Canada continues to be a battleground; if the Conservatives can pick up a few seats here and a few more in Ontario, a weak majority is within reach.