cross-posted from DemocraticSPACE’s 41st Canadian Election site

Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are on the cusp of majority territory, according to the latest DemocraticSPACE projections. Taking into account polls conducted by Angus Reid, Ekos, Harris-Decima, and Ipsos (the latest Nanos poll is over a month old, so we’ve included and additional Ekos poll through Oct 6 instead) — including polls ending Oct 6 through Oct 14 — we currently project the following:

CONSERVATIVE / 40.8% / 152 seats
LIBERAL / 27.4% / 84 seats
NDP / 13.9% / 27 seats
BLOC / 9.3% / 45 seats
GREEN / 7.5% / 0 seats

Traditionally, a party in Canada has been able to win a majority with 40% of the vote, but the Conservative vote is not entirely efficient. The Conservatives run up big raw vote numbers in Alberta, B.C. and the Prairies, but they are winning almost as many seats as they can, so additional vote doesn’t necessarily translate into more seats. So, the Conservatives probably need an extra 1-1.5 points nationally to win a majority.

Interestingly, these results show how the Conservatives can win a weak majority without a breakthrough in Quebec. In fact, current projections show the Conservatives losing 1 seat in Quebec. The Conservatives are able to come close to a majority by winning many close seats in Ontario’s 905 region, as well as dominating in the West. Atlantic Canada continues to be a battleground; if the Conservatives can pick up a few seats here and a few more in Ontario, a weak majority is within reach.