Comments on: Nov 27 Vote and Seat Projections http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2009/11/nov-27-vote-and-seat-projections/ DemocraticSPACE is one of North America's leading non-partisan political websites. Fri, 12 Mar 2010 18:55:51 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Greg Morrow http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2009/11/nov-27-vote-and-seat-projections/comment-page-1/#comment-1394356 Greg Morrow Fri, 04 Dec 2009 21:45:36 +0000 http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/?p=2301#comment-1394356 @Michael - because of the distribution of support by region and the dynamic among the 4 parties holding seats. The LPC is up ~4 pts in QC from 2008, while the Bloc is down 1 and the NDP down 2, which results in the LPC picking up 4 close seats from the BQ and 1 from the NDP. Likewise, the NDP is down ~3 pts in ON which results in the LPC picking up 5 seats from the NDP. The CPC is down ~4 pts in BC while the NDP is up ~2, so the CPC loses a seat to the NDP. Note that all of these shifts are "leaning" only (i.e. they are still very close). The CPC is polling a bit higher in MB/SK and QC but it doesn't result in any more seats. That's why it looks like the CPC is up but not gaining seats, while the LPC is not up but has gained seats. @Michael – because of the distribution of support by region and the dynamic among the 4 parties holding seats. The LPC is up ~4 pts in QC from 2008, while the Bloc is down 1 and the NDP down 2, which results in the LPC picking up 4 close seats from the BQ and 1 from the NDP. Likewise, the NDP is down ~3 pts in ON which results in the LPC picking up 5 seats from the NDP. The CPC is down ~4 pts in BC while the NDP is up ~2, so the CPC loses a seat to the NDP. Note that all of these shifts are “leaning” only (i.e. they are still very close). The CPC is polling a bit higher in MB/SK and QC but it doesn’t result in any more seats. That’s why it looks like the CPC is up but not gaining seats, while the LPC is not up but has gained seats.

]]> By: Michael http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2009/11/nov-27-vote-and-seat-projections/comment-page-1/#comment-1393770 Michael Thu, 03 Dec 2009 18:47:56 +0000 http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/?p=2301#comment-1393770 I am curious as to why the conservatives lose seats from their current levels, in spite of having higher support than they did last election, whereas the liberals gain 11 seats with about the same popular vote. This is of course entirely possible given our antiquated election system (local pockets of support will increase seats, and 2 % extra for the cons, if it comes mostly from the prairies means not a whit), but it does bear further analysis and comment. I am curious as to why the conservatives lose seats from their current levels, in spite of having higher support than they did last election, whereas the liberals gain 11 seats with about the same popular vote. This is of course entirely possible given our antiquated election system (local pockets of support will increase seats, and 2 % extra for the cons, if it comes mostly from the prairies means not a whit), but it does bear further analysis and comment.

]]> By: Josh http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2009/11/nov-27-vote-and-seat-projections/comment-page-1/#comment-1393090 Josh Wed, 02 Dec 2009 03:15:35 +0000 http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/?p=2301#comment-1393090 I think these sorts of projections are interesting, but not altogether helpful. Swings of a few percentage points (or fractions of points) are frequent in polls, but it would be far more meaningful to provide predicted ranges for seats. There is far too much error to take any kind of projection to the nearest seat with anything other than a grain of salt. I think these sorts of projections are interesting, but not altogether helpful. Swings of a few percentage points (or fractions of points) are frequent in polls, but it would be far more meaningful to provide predicted ranges for seats. There is far too much error to take any kind of projection to the nearest seat with anything other than a grain of salt.

]]> By: Ed http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2009/11/nov-27-vote-and-seat-projections/comment-page-1/#comment-1392312 Ed Mon, 30 Nov 2009 20:30:20 +0000 http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/?p=2301#comment-1392312 An election is unlikely soon. These projections are too close to the totals for the last election. An election is unlikely soon. These projections are too close to the totals for the last election.

]]> By: Dave Fluri http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2009/11/nov-27-vote-and-seat-projections/comment-page-1/#comment-1390588 Dave Fluri Sat, 28 Nov 2009 00:09:08 +0000 http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/?p=2301#comment-1390588 You know, Greg, it would be really handy if, when you post updated projections, you also included the current seat standings for people like me who can never seem to keep the exact numbers in mind. Dave You know, Greg, it would be really handy if, when you post updated projections, you also included the current seat standings for people like me who can never seem to keep the exact numbers in mind.

Dave

]]>