Comments on: What do the 4 federal by-elections tell us? http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2009/11/what-do-the-4-federal-by-elections-tell-us/ DemocraticSPACE is one of North America's leading non-partisan political websites. Fri, 12 Mar 2010 18:55:51 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Ed http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2009/11/what-do-the-4-federal-by-elections-tell-us/comment-page-1/#comment-1378974 Ed Wed, 11 Nov 2009 17:24:26 +0000 http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/?p=2284#comment-1378974 Two of the four ridings, Hochelaga and CCMV, are safe seats where you would need an electoral earthquake to switch. I realize CCMV is a nominal Conservative gain, but without a popular independent like Casey its a safe Conservative seat. Given the regionalized nature of Canadian politics, its hard to read national trends from by-election results, particularly Quebec results don't tell you much about what is happening outside Quebec, and vice versa. The Conservative gain in MIKRL tells you nothing about their ability to win GTA ridings from the Liberals. So the low interest in these by-elections is understandable. Still, the two gains are good news for the government. Four third place finishes are not good news for the Liberals, but then they were not in the mix in any of these ridings. I honestly can't think of what else can be read from these. Two of the four ridings, Hochelaga and CCMV, are safe seats where you would need an electoral earthquake to switch. I realize CCMV is a nominal Conservative gain, but without a popular independent like Casey its a safe Conservative seat.

Given the regionalized nature of Canadian politics, its hard to read national trends from by-election results, particularly Quebec results don’t tell you much about what is happening outside Quebec, and vice versa. The Conservative gain in MIKRL tells you nothing about their ability to win GTA ridings from the Liberals.

So the low interest in these by-elections is understandable. Still, the two gains are good news for the government. Four third place finishes are not good news for the Liberals, but then they were not in the mix in any of these ridings. I honestly can’t think of what else can be read from these.

]]> By: Aaron http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2009/11/what-do-the-4-federal-by-elections-tell-us/comment-page-1/#comment-1378643 Aaron Wed, 11 Nov 2009 00:39:22 +0000 http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/?p=2284#comment-1378643 Bloc supporters tend to be young, and I'd guess that lower turnout means disproportionately less young people at the polls. Witness the recent governor election results in Virginia (the majority of the 2009 voters supported McCain in 2008, whereas the state went for Obama). Obama also did very well among young people and they generally didn't turnout in 2009. Bloc supporters tend to be young, and I’d guess that lower turnout means disproportionately less young people at the polls. Witness the recent governor election results in Virginia (the majority of the 2009 voters supported McCain in 2008, whereas the state went for Obama). Obama also did very well among young people and they generally didn’t turnout in 2009.

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