(Note to Facebook readers: Facebook doesn’t format tables, so please hit ‘view original post’ and the bottom to see the formatted table)
With the Copenhagen Climate Change (COP-15) conference set to begin today, I thought it might be useful to get a sense where different nations stand, both in terms of their current total and per capita CO2 emissions, but also what they have publicly offered in terms of CO2 cuts. There are some slight variances depending on the sources, so bear with me — below is my best guess based on a number of sources. The other thing that complicates comparison is that different countries using different baselines, so I’ve included a column showing the equivalent cuts relative to the 1990 Kyoto baseline.
Scientists from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) say developed countries need to collecting reduce CO2 emissions 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020 to have a chance of avoiding a greater than 2% increase in global temperatures (which is considered a breaking point). As you can see from the table below, only a few are offering cuts remotely near that — the European Union (20-30%), Japan (25%), and Norway (30-40%) are closest. But Japan might have trouble actually reaching its target. Australia’s 24% looks promising but it hasn’t yet passed legislation and much of its cut is due to concessions it won previously to count reductions in deforestation, so it’s a bit artificial. The U.S. and Canada are clearly laggards, offering what amounts to only a 3-4% cut. Considering Canada committed (and ratified) under Kyoto to a 6% cut by 2012, it’s clear Canada in particular is well behind the eight ball. China and India are significant players, but as developing countries they are not committing to absolute targets but rather merely “intensity” based reductions (this means their CO2 emissions will continue to rise as their economies expand, but not by as much).
Clearly, there is much work to be done to close the gap between North America and Europe, as well as bring emerging giants like China and India into the mix. It should be interesting to see how the next two weeks play out.
| Nation | % of world CO2 1 |
CO2 produced per head 2 |
Cut from 2005 level 3 |
Equivalent to 1990 level |
| China | 22 | 5 | 40-45% 4 | ? |
| United States | 20 | 20 | 17% | 3-4% |
| European Union | 14 | 9 | - | 20-30% |
| African Union | 8 | 4 | ? | ? |
| Russia | 6 | 11 | - | 20-25% |
| India | 5 | 2 | 20-25% 4 | ? |
| Japan | 4 | 10 | - | 25% |
| Gulf States | 2 | 25 | ? | ? |
| Canada | 2 | 18 | 20% 5 | 3% |
| Australia | 1 | 19 | 5-25% 6 | 24% |
| Small Islands | <1 | 4 | ? | ? |
| Norway | <1 | 8 | - | 30-40% |
| New Zealand | <1 | 9 | - | 10-20% |
Notes
1 2008 estimate
2 2008 estimate (tons)
3 by 2020
4 per unit of GDP only (intensity target)
5 from 2006 level
6 from 2000 level
Various Sources
BBC
Pembina Institute (PDF)
Wikipedia
CIA World Factbook
Energy Daily
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