Here are the latest seat projections, including a couple of new polls this week from Ekos and Environics. I’ve broken the projections down into “solid” (where the projected margin of victory is 10 points or greater) and “leaning” (less than 10 points). There are 81 seats currently in play, a bit more than 1/4 of the seats.

NATIONAL
CPC – 133 seats (104 solid + 29 leaning) – 34.7% support
LPC – 95 seats (64 solid + 31 leaning) – 31.5% support
BQ – 44 seats (39 solid + 5 leaning) – 9.2% support
NDP – 36 seats (19 solid + 17 leaning) – 15.8% support
GPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 7.5% support

ONTARIO
LPC – 47 seats (34 solid + 13 leaning) – 38.2% support
CPC – 45 seats (34 solid + 11 leaning) – 37.5% support
NDP – 14 seats (6 solid + 8 leaning) – 14.1% support
GPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 9.3% support

QUEBEC
BQ – 44 seats (39 solid + 5 leaning) – 35.7% support
LPC – 20 seats (12 solid + 8 leaning) – 29.3% support
CPC – 10 seats (6 solid + 4 leaning) – 17.1% support
NDP – 1 seat (0 solid + 1 leaning) – 11.7% support
GPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 5.4% support

BRITISH COLUMBIA
CPC – 19 seats (13 solid + 6 leaning) – 38.5% support
NDP – 11 seats (6 solid + 5 leaning) – 26.0% support
LPC – 6 seats (3 solid + 3 leaning) – 22.9% support
GPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 11.1% support

ALBERTA
CPC – 27 seats (27 solid + 0 leaning) – 59.9% support
NDP – 1 seat (0 solid + 1 leaning) – 9.7% support
LPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 16.6% support
GPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 11.5% support

PRAIRIES
CPC – 22 seats (19 solid + 3 leaning) – 50.0% support
NDP – 4 seat (3 solid + 1 leaning) – 22.4% support
LPC – 2 seats (1 solid + 1 leaning) – 20.5% support
GPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 6.4% support

ATLANTIC CANADA
LPC – 18 seats (13 solid + 5 leaning) – 37.8% support
CPC – 10 seats (5 solid + 5 leaning) – 32.0% support
NDP – 4 seat (4 solid + 0 leaning) – 23.7% support
GPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 5.7% support

NORTH
LPC – 2 seats (1 solid + 1 leaning) – 34.5% support
NDP – 1 seat (0 solid + 1 leaning) – 22.6% support
CPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 31.9% support
GPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 10.3% support

Latest seat projections show the Conservatives with a 133-99 seat advantage over the Liberals, including new polls this week by Harris-Decima and Ekos. See results below…

NATIONAL
CPC – 133 (34.6%)
LPC – 99 (32.5%)
BQ – 45 (9.1%)
NDP – 31 (15.5%)
GPC – 0 (7.1%)

ONTARIO
LPC – 49 (38.9%)
CPC – 45 (37.7%)
NDP – 12 (13.4%)
GPC – 0 (9.1%)

QUEBEC
BQ – 45 (35.6%)
LPC – 21 (30.5%)
CPC – 9 (16.8%)
NDP – 0 (11.3%)
GPC – 0 (5.1%)

BRITISH COLUMBIA
CPC – 19 (37.4%)
NDP – 10 (25.5%)
LPC – 7 (25.2%)
GPC – 0 (10.3%)

ALBERTA
CPC – 28 (62.0%)
LPC – 0 (16.9%)
GPC – 0 (10.4%)
NDP – 0 (8.3%)

PRAIRIES
CPC – 22 (49.1%)
NDP – 4 (21.1%)
LPC – 2 (22.6%)
GPC – 0 (6.5%)

ATLANTIC CANADA
LPC – 18 (38.8%)
CPC – 10 (31.8%)
NDP – 4 (22.9%)
GPC – 0 (5.7%)

NORTH
LPC – 2 (35.5%)
NDP – 1 (22.3%)
CPC – 0 (31.9%)
GPC – 0 (9.6%)

See full details at http://democraticSPACE.com/canada2009

Our latest projections include new polls by Environics, Ekos, and Angus Reid over the past week or so. While Environics shows a slight tilt towards the Liberals, it is offset by a slight tilt towards the Conservatives in the Ekos and Angus Reid polls, so the start of the Olympics has has changed little from our last update a week or so ago. The Liberals and Greens are up marginally and the NDP is down a bit, but otherwise things are holding steady.

NATIONAL
CPC – 129 (34.6%)
LPC – 103 (32.9%)
BQ – 45 (9.3%)
NDP – 31 (15.2%)
GPC – 0 (6.9%)

ONTARIO
LPC – 53 (39.2%)
CPC – 41 (37.2%)
NDP – 12 (13.4%)
GPC – 0 (9.3%)

QUEBEC
BQ – 45 (36.1%)
LPC – 21 (31.1%)
CPC – 9 (16.6%)
NDP – 0 (11.2%)
GPC – 0 (4.3%)

BRITISH COLUMBIA
CPC – 19 (37.0%)
NDP – 10 (25.6%)
LPC – 7 (25.6%)
GPC – 0 (10.2%)

ALBERTA
CPC – 28 (61.2%)
LPC – 0 (17.9%)
GPC – 0 (10.2%)
NDP – 0 (8.2%)

PRAIRIES
CPC – 22 (48.7%)
NDP – 4 (22.5%)
LPC – 2 (21.8%)
GPC – 0 (6.3%)

ATLANTIC CANADA
LPC – 18 (39.7%)
CPC – 10 (32.9%)
NDP – 4 (21.0%)
GPC – 0 (5.6%)

NORTH
LPC – 2 (35.9%)
NDP – 1 (22.0%)
CPC – 0 (32.0%)
GPC – 0 (9.4%)

See full details at http://democraticSPACE.com/canada2009

As widely expected, the latest seat projections show a significant drop for the Conservatives, as Canadians register their displeasure over the government’s decision to prorogue Parliament. The current state of affairs looks much like the weak majority of 2006. Our current projections are:

NATIONAL
CPC – 129 (34.5%)
LPC – 102 (32.4%)
BQ – 45 (9.4%)
NDP – 32 (16.0%)
GPC – 0 (6.5%)

ONTARIO
LPC – 53 (39.5%)
CPC – 41 (37.7%)
NDP – 12 (13.8%)
GPC – 0 (8.1%)

QUEBEC
BQ – 45 (36.3%)
LPC – 21 (30.6%)
CPC – 9 (16.6%)
NDP – 0 (12.0%)
GPC – 0 (3.7%)

BRITISH COLUMBIA
CPC – 19 (37.1%)
NDP – 10 (25.3%)
LPC – 7 (26.2%)
GPC – 0 (9.9%)

ALBERTA
CPC – 27 (60.3%)
NDP – 1 (9.0%)
LPC – 0 (15.3%)
GPC – 0 (13.0%)

PRAIRIES
CPC – 22 (51.8%)
NDP – 4 (21.4%)
LPC – 2 (19.1%)
GPC – 0 (7.0%)

ATLANTIC CANADA
LPC – 17 (35.7%)
CPC – 11 (33.2%)
NDP – 4 (25.6%)
GPC – 0 (4.7%)

NORTH
LPC – 2 (35.4%)
NDP – 1 (22.9%)
CPC – 0 (32.0%)
GPC – 0 (9.0%)

See full details at: http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2009/