The NDP Candidate is Megan Walker, the Liberal is being determined tonight. There is also a Progressive Canadian, Steven Hunter.

Liberal- Glen Pearson

Bah!

When it became apparent that Mr. Fontana would resign, the media hounded Glen Pearson about whether or not he would seek the nomination in a byelection. Pearson swore that he would “never consider” running anywhere other than London Fanshawe. I guess that means that he’s jumped in without even thinking about it!

the greens will double thier vote here; and still lose the riding by a huge margin.

It’s anyone’s guess what things will look like. Fontana had a large personal vote, and it’s hard to say where it will go.

In order of likelihood:
Liberal hold
Green gain
Conservative gain
NDP gain (highly unlikely)

I’ll call it for the NDP for a number of reasons.
The Libs are caught up in the federal leadership race and municipal elections (includng Fontana’s people working for his mayoralyt bid). By-elections are usually bad for the governing party (Cons) and the Cons and Greens will split the fiscal conservative vote. The NDP has a good base in London and in the riding and is in good shape as far as electoral machinery goes,including avoding a nomination battle.

I’m going to echo a few things that Peter mentioned. The NDP has always been just on the cusp in every riding in London, and we are finally starting to break through. For the first time ever, we have a sitting MP in the city, which is a huge advantage that we have never had before. Last time, we received our largest vote count ever with a 23 year old candidate, and this time we have a high-profile candidate who has a history of facing off with Haskett. On top of that, the NDP historically does much better in byelections than in general elections (I think that this is due to strategic voting; ie, since only one seat, not the whole government, is at stake, people don’t feel as pressured to vote Liberal to prevent a Conservative win, and vice-versa.)

The Liberals will lose votes in this byelection. Much of their support in this riding is due to Fontana, and not the party. Pearson is a political rookie and from everythin that I’ve seen so far, the Liberals are not treating this with the same level of seriousness that the other 3 parties are.

My guess:
Liberals - lose votes to all 3 other parties
Conservatives - lose votes to greens, gain from Liberals; hold steady overall
NDP - lose some votes to greens, gain from Liberals; overall increase
Greens - gain from all 3, mostly Cons, some Libs, and few NDP; overall increase

That leaves the Libs, Cons, and NDP in a close 3-way race at about 25% to 30% each, and the Greens a little bit behind at somewhere between 10% and 20%.

In a sad statement about the first past the post system, probably the party that just cracks 30% will win.

Predicted movement and estimated order based on candidates:

NDP up - strong local results, strong local rep
Liberal down - loss of major incumbent, new rep
Conservative down - strong rep but by- bad for gov
Green up - numbers could double but will stay 4th

That being said this will be a very close 3-way race where anyone could take it.

I’ve been playing around with some campaign finance numbers, and I posted a some information about my findings on my blog. In brief, the Cons spent just under the $82,000 legal limit in the last campaign, the Liberals spent about $60,000, and the NDP spent about $20,000. Given that all three will spend the legal limit in the byelection, the Cons will be using about the same montary resources that they had in the general election, the Liberals will spend a little more, and the NDP will quadruple their spending, with about $60,000 more to play with this campaign.

If the NDP can take 24% with $20,000, presumable the extra $60,000 will give them a bit of a boost. Of course, the general election expenditures are a very poor way of predicting the outcome of a byelection; nonetheless, it will be interesting to see how the pairity of resources this time around affects things.

Devin, do not forget that the Green Party will also be spending the legal limit. Up from about $2000 in this riding the last time.

With the leader of the Greens running and with the Greens recent high poll numbers of 11% in Ontario. How much can Elizabeth May pull in? And assuming that she does take in a lot more votes then the 5.5% in January how much will she take from which parties?

While I don’t think that the Green Party can win this seat, May certainly makes this election more difficult to predict.

Trevor, unfortunately I can’t get the exact number from the Elections Canada site on the Green Party’s expenses (I’m not sure why that is not reported, as the Progressive Canadian candidate is.) You are right, though, the Greens will have the biggest jump of all the parties both in terms of monetary backing and the profile of the candidate.

I don’t think that the Greens can take it (sorry, Dad,) but they will eat up a lot of votes, manking it a 3-and-a-half horse race.

Personally I’m going to say many people will criticize haskett for coming from washington to run, and personally dis-liking socialism and Ms. Walker in the extreme im sure Glen will take it.
Liberal- 28%
Conservative- 25%
Green- 22%
Ndp- 20%
Pc- 4%
independent- 1%
Personally Steve or Elizabeth has my vote.

My prediction:

Liberal: 28%
Green: 24%
NDP: 21%
Conservative: 19%
Others: 5%

The Liberals and Conservatives will both lose a lot of ground, but most of it will go to the Greens and not the NDP, allowing the Liberals to hang on to the seat. Haskett was a terrible choice for the Conservatives.

The Greens aren’t as credible in North Centre as a lot of you seem to think. Haskett’s support is loyal, but has no room to grow. The race will be between the Libs and New Democrats. As much as I’d like to see an NDP win here, I can’t see the Liberals getting less than 30% of the vote, especially with a well respected candidate like Pearson. Prediction:
Liberal 33
NDP 29
Conservative 25
Green 10
Others 3

I really think most commenters here are underestimating Haskett. For one thing, most Londoners will remember her mainly as their popular mayor, not as an outsider. Also, although the Tories are definitely down in the polls nationally, Ontario is one province where they’ve seemed to be holding strong, at least as high as they were on Jan. 23.

And of course, the left is split among 3 prominent candidates. If the Greens are at 11% in Ontario, their leader will get more than that. And the Grits and NDP already have a strong base of support. But none of them will overcome the split to win.

Rough prediction: CON 35 LIB 25 GRN 20 NDP 18 other 2

I’m getting really sick of people continuing to tout the Green party as a left wing party. They are NOT a left wing party, and saying as such is a catastrophic misinterpretation of what the left actually stands for. That being said, I will freely admit that the Green party sucks votes from the left. This does not make them left-wing though!

Couldn’t agree more. If you want proof you can visit there website and see how much they dis-likke ambroses clean air act and the conservative-alliance-reform-progressive (c-r-a-p) Also for the independent candidate, i’d like to give the percentage i gave him and split it amongst the others. Why? Recently found out hes a libertaria, and if anybody believes he’ll make a slight impact, im going to say there nuts!

Using a weighted formula I somewhat arbitrarily set up consisting of:

1) the 2006 London results
2) Financing data in line with Devin’s posting above
3) Every prediction with actual number percentages on this and the other blogs I frequent (all averaged together); and
4) Recent Ontario polls versus 2006 election results

I came up with the following numbers as my prediction:

Lib: 33.3%
Con: 26.0%
NDP: 22.4%
Green: 17.3%

Paul

Pretty clever except I’m pretty sure the Greens will be ahead of the ndp. Not for sure but if they intend on spending 82 grand, then I’m pretty sure thats going to be the out come will be in favour of the greens.

Dianne Haskett is going to win this seat because (a) her name recognition is astronomically higher than anyone else in the race and (b) byelections are not like regular elections, voter turnout will be low, and issues aren’t going to be front and centre.

Additionally, the Green Party has zero chance to win this seat. It’s that basic.

As much as im sure the greens have a little chance at winning, im going to say Dianne would be a bad choice for london. If i were to live in london, I’d prefer some one who lives in the same country. Also as much as i believe in christian values, everyone has to be tolerant to gays. It would be kinda neat to see Steve Hunter win. However thats seems even less likely.

Oh sure Cindanne Gazilers you preach on the evils of Dianne Haskett having lived in Washington, well guess what so did Elizabeth May, she was an American by birth and is supported by Bill Clinton, and the Liberals have Howard Dean Democrat speaking at the Liberal leadership election. You know what it’s fantastic.

Only ignorant people like you would rail against exchange of free political idea and support that moves across the borders on the entire political spectrum.

Wheeloffate, good call. There is no difference between a candidate who has spent the last six years in the US working for the Bush administration and just moved back for this campaign and a candidate who has lived (and worked tirelessly for the environment) in Canada for the last 34 years, but was born in the US.

Dianne Haskett only moved to United States because her daughter doesn’t want to be seen as a mayor’s daughter or former mayor’s daughter… She had a legitimite reason to move and it was explained in CBC’s Politics show. From the comments posted in CTV, people seem to be very pissed at Pearson using everything he could to gain media attention and popularity. At the end of the day, people would remember what Haskett has contributed to London. I would also say Green ahead of NDP.

Will Arlow from the Canadian Action Party! Go Will!

Why there are a bunch of BIG wishers here.

First: Green is NOT going to win this one, they don’t even have a close shot. May has taken the Green party back to their extreme left protest roots. I’d say the most the Green could gain here is 2000 votes max.

Second: NDP has a very slim chance of winning here. Walker may be a former city councillor, but she does not have the same name recognition as say, Haskett. The NDP might only feel a small surge of support due to decrease in Liberal support.

Third: Dianne Haskett placing third or fourth is a JOKE. Obviously, people do not know that Haskett was re-elected in a LANDSLIDE as mayor 2-1 over her next opponent despite not campaigning for 3 weeks. She has a popular record among Londoners, and even froze taxes for a period of time. She has a HUGE shot of winning this, and if not, then she will place a close second at worst. As well, the Liberal Pearson is running a slack campaign, and one with a recent controversy/scandal about comments made by one of his top campaign volunteers.

So, my prediction:
CPC Haskett (X) 35%
LPC Pearson 30%
NDP Walker 26%
GRN May 8%
PCP Hunter /
CAP Arlow /

(”/” = less than 1%)

C’mon people, enough of the sad wishing. NDP and ESPECIALLY the Green will not win it.

Greeny leader Lizzie May is a total parachute candidate and has no roots and no organization at all in London and will do 8% tops…no matter what the polls say. The Greenies will draw votes from upscale voters with composters who’d normally vote Reformatory.

By-elections almost always go against the government and the government doesn’t even hold this seat to begin with. Nix the Reformatories.

This will be a Liberal/NDP battleground and with the Liberals in dissaray, the NDP has a really good shot at it … but it’ll be a squeaker.

Elizabeth moved from the U.S to Canada over 20 years ago! Unlike Haskett who hasn’t lived in Canada for the past 6 years! Don’t make me laugh with working ‘tirelessly on the environment’, Its like calling Rona an Animal Alliance Extreme Green! I do realize Elizabeth May has a slim chance at winning, However I do believe they have a chance at third. Oh and wheeloffate, Only ignorant people defend ULTRA CONSERVATIVE, homophobic, intollerant, U.S citizen like Haskett. Oh, FYI Who cares, she won’t win, EASY Pearson win.

-Cindanne G.

Rolf, 8% my crack! There is 99.9% promise that Greens will achieve atleast 10%. This is Downtown Toronto where the Green votes come from Ultra rich people, who drive a smart car and have solar panels on there rooves. Its London. Where the Greens may not win, and the NDP haven’t a chanceto win either. Again Glen takes it 10% margin.

This could very well be one of the hardest by-elections we will ever need to predict.

Starting from:
L 40 / C 30 / N 24 / G 5.5
Try to include recent polls in Ontario and its more like
L 42 / C 25 / N 23 / G 9.5
Greens, Cons and NDP have better individuals running, Liberals have a worse one
L 30 / C 29 / N 26 / G 14
Greens increase spending in riding from $3000 to at least $60,000 and possibly the $82000 limit. They tend to suck in support roughly equaly, maybe less from the Liberals
L 29 / C 26 / N 24 / G 20
And then you have the recent scandal which will benefit the NDP
L 25 / C 27 / N 27 / G 22

I tend to think that the Liberals and cons will poll higher and the Greens lower than this (anywhere from 10-25% is the range), but who knows?

Cindanne,

I think you read my post wrong I was referring to Elizabeth May working tirelessly for the environment since she moved to Canada 34 years ago. I think, somehow, you believe I was saying that about Haskett.

Again, wishful people with wishful thinking.
It is actually very simple.
-The Greens will not crack more than 8-10%. Period. Do you people seriously think Londoners care about some obscure environmentalist facist protestor?
-The NDP is not going to take it. Walker was a city counsellor… but is she popular?
-Conservative Dianne Haskett is VERY popular in London. It’s no wonder she got re-elected 2:1 to her nearest opponent despite not campaigning for 3 weeks. She has an incredible record of working for Londoners, and has increased the city’s profile among the national and global stage. There is no way she is homophobic. Just because she might not agree with the gay pride parade, means that she’s homophobic? Give me a break. I guess then the people on London are homophobic for giving her a landslide victory. *rolleyes*
-Liberal Pearson is the other person who has a shot at it. However, he’s running a slow campaign, does not have the name recognition, and is plagued by a recent scandal.

OK, here’s a poll I made up to compare voting patterns this time with last election, for those of you living in the London North-Centre riding

http://www.misterpoll.com/4237934704.html

Please vote!

I just have to offer my prediction:
(An uneducated guess, really)

Lib 32%
CPC 28%
NDP 24%
Green 14%
Other 1%

Cindanne Gazilers, I guess you would consider someone living and working abroad an Ultra Right Wing Conservative. Freedom of Movement just does not fit with your Socialist ideals. Sounds like you and Kim Jong IL might be good friends

What the hell’s happened to this thread? Last time I checked it, it was actually about the London By-Election and not about calling people “ignorant” and “socialist” (as if being socialist was universally agreed upon to be a bad thing).
I don’t know about everybody else, but I haven’t seen any evidence that anybody issuing predictions here is any more or any less ignorant than the next (with the sole exception of people who feel the need to resort to ad hominem attacks). Let’s face it people: we’re trying to predict something that hasn’t happened yet, which, contrary to what Predictor said, is NEVER “very simple”.

Talk about splitting hairs. Most of the predictions here are in the same ballpark so I’m not sure how one view is more ignorant than another.

“Predictor”–I’m not sure if you live in London or not–I do–but don’t underestimate Pearson. Despite what you say, he has name recognition and respect as head of the food bank and relief efforts.

And don’t overestimate Haskett–it’s amazing how quickly her mayoral term has been forgotten. All anyone remembers now is the anti-gay stance and pouting in Port Stanley.(And her assistant during her mayoral days-Tim Gatten–just got trounced in the municipal election–despite playing up this relationship).

And Megan Walker’s name recognition is just as high as Haskett due to her former radio program–she’s been in the community and the media for the last 6 years, unlike Haskett.

As much as I want to see an NDP win here, I think the Pearson/blog scandal will only hurt them–didn’t they learn anything about mudslinging from DiNovo’s by-election win?

No thanks Wheelofate, I am fairly anti-socialist, The only time I ever took a leap to the Orange side is whe Ed was leader of the Ndpers. Nor do I favor the views of Kim Jong.

Trevor. I apoligize, My mistake. Oh, and can you believe that PC is getting media coverage? Paul, I guess I’ll agree with you. However, I don’t see how giving (harmless) predictions shows any ignorance at all. People who are louder then others just want to voice there opinion.

@Todd: Your methods are mostly sound, but I don’t think Diane Haskett will be any benefit to the Conservatives (more like a detriment). She’s unpopular and reviled for her single-issue mania on same-sex marriage, and no one but hardcore Conservatives will want to vote for her. That will probably drive up both the Liberal and Green vote while leaving the NDP unaffected. Really, it could go any of three, maybe four, ways.

My new prediction:

Lib: 28
NDP: 25
Green: 23
Con: 20
Others: 3

Paul got a hand it to you, despite the extensive world wide track record of Socialist policies bring misery to all, you stand by your convictions.

Cindanne Gazilers, I have to apologize I thought I had you pegged as a Socialist, but since you appear to be all over the radar, have back peddled in your views and used fear mongering, you must be a Liberal, and for that I am truly sorry.

This is my prediction.

Dianne Haskett (Conservative Party of Canada) 18,032 32.91%
Glen Pearson (Liberal Party of Canada) 17,109 31.22%
Megan Walker (New Democratic Party) 12,121 22.12%
Elizabeth May (Green Party of Canada) 6,902 12.59%
Robert Ede (Independent) 237 0.43%
Steve Hunter (Progressive Canadian Party) 202 0.35%
Will Arlow (Canadian Action Party) 132 0.24%

52 Spoiled / Rejected Ballots

54,787 votes

60.95 % Turn out

Wheelofate, I haven’t back peddaled at all, I have never been a socialist, liberal, or conservative. Its one thing to read a future election but another to read ones political views. Especially when my previous posts have put dow three of the four major political parties.

Independent- Libertarianist, not a hope to get .4
PC- Will get more then your prediction.
Greens-Will get more
Liberals and conservatives- Will be switched around.

Conservatives won’t win this one.

Okay two people claimed I was calling harmless predictions “ignorant” who didn’t understand the context of why I was writing. I wasn’t calling the people who issue predicions “ignorant” as I myself enjoy predicting future events. I just wanted to point out the need for all of us to have a little bit of humility and recognize that attacking others on this blog (as Wheeloffate clearly enjoys doing) is a little bit rich considering how predicting future events is always a mug’s game.

Preliminary results from the poll (http://www.misterpoll.com/4237934704.html if you haven’t taken it yet)
NDP and Green support increased since last election
Conservative and Liberal support decreased

– at least among readers of this website

I was at the debate last night. As the President of the UWO New Democrats, I got to ask the first question. I looked Haskett directly in the eye and asked straight up, “Will you support equality in marriage?” Haskett was the only candidate who said “no,” and was immediately booed by a number of people attending the debate.

The article in the LFP the next day read “Haskett booed at all candidates’ debate” (or something to that effect, I can’t recall the exact wording off hand.)

That was a huge power trip for me.

According to the Toronto Star, the Greens have support “well into the double digits” according to a Liberal internal poll. I am guessing the Greens will get somewhere around 14-18%. I know it was discussed on this thread earlier, and it seems to be the party that’s hard to predict.
I also think Haskett may be the one to beat in this election, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a close race here.

Haskett might have been mayor, and might have won big but municipal election results do not necessarily translate in federal/provincial elections. In fact its extremely hard to knock out an incumbent municipal office holder no matter what part of the political spectrum they come from.

Being homophobic doesn’t play well in an urban riding either and again Haskett is from the government party and this government is becoming more and more unpopular as time goes on.

The Greens always show better in the polls than they do on election day. May could actually win if she runs next time in Cape Breton…where she has some “personal” roots…but not in London. Her “celeb” factor will only win her a few more percentage points than normal…not much though.

This will be Liberal vs. NDP and the result will be a squeaker…but…the NDP is really good at winning by-elections. No matter how much some folks on here hate the NDP, you have to acknowledge the NDP’s ability to get out the vote in by-elections.

“The Greens always show better in the polls than they do on election day.”

I doubt the Greens will win this seat, but to say that the Greens always show better in polls than they do on election day is untrue. It is true that polls in which they score very high tend to get them the most attention. However going into the last election when I looked at how they polled overall in the hundreds of polls it averaged out to just under 5% which is very close to what they got. There was the odd poll which placed them at 8% and many polls placing them at 1 or 2%, but the overall trend was accurate. (Before this last election it is impossible to tell as they were rarely included in polls) Clearly the overall trend in the polls since the last election shows that they have gained a significant amount of support.

I’m sorry but this doesn’t really relate to the election but I now realize Megan Walker looks like a troll.

Now for what I think the outcome will be, based on signs.
On my way to work I see around 50 signs.
Liberal-15
Conservative-13
Green-11
Ndp-9
PC- 2(?)
These include public signs so If I were to count only private signs PC would have none, NDP 2 or 3 Conservative 6?, Greens 6? Liberal 8? Its funny because many of my co-workers are socialists, Extreme Christians or E-freaks. Liberals dominate in signage though, I suppose liberals are much louder then the other parties. My vote goes to Elizabeth unless somebody else comes to my door that doesn’t strangle me untill I put a sign on my (mini) lawn.

Don’t know how all of you have come up with those numbers, but I’m pulling for the Conservatives… It’ll just prove that polls are for dogs, and that people haven’t forgiven the Liberals. Having the Green party strong can only help Haskett. I agree though, vote will be split 4 ways, relatively equally.

Right now I’m going to be shocked if the Green party doesn’t recieve a third please finish. 6,600 people in the CAD(?) have vowed to vote liberal instead of the ndp. Thats about 5,000 votes that the ndp won’t have! Anyone thinking the ndp ever had a chance of winning is wrong, They have less or as much of a chance of winning as Elizabeth and the Greens.

OK - I just have to revise my predictions:
Lib 31 %
Con 28%
NDP 22 %
Green 19%

But you never know… It could be a tight 4 way race. The Liberal vote could slip a little, and I think even Elizabeth May has a chance. She does seem to have a lot of momentum going…

To sum up other predictions thus far:

Wheeloffate:
C 33 / L 31 / N 22 / G 13

Todd:
L 25 / C 27 / N 27 / G 22

Predictor:
C 35 / L 30 / N 26 / G 8

Tom:
L 28 / G 24 / N 21 / C 19

Pete:
C 35 / L 25 / G 20 / N 18

Matt:
L 28 / C 25 / G 22 / N 20

Paul:
L 33 / C 26 / N 22 / G 17

John:
L 33 / N 29 / C 25 / G 10

Average
L 29 / C 27 / N 23 / G 17

Any more predictions?

There’s some internal Liberal poll I’ve never seen, that people keep talking about, that predicts a tight 4 way race. Certainly keeps it interesting.
We’ll see… be sure to check back on election day.

I’m thinking close to the same but subtracting all those ndp votes AT CAW that are now going to the liberals!

Liberal-32%
Conservative-25%
Green-20%
ndp-19%
Other-4%

The CAW has never followed their executive’s reccommendations before, so there’s no reason to believe they will this time. The NDP should be more worried that May has rec’d endorsements from lefty City Councillor Baechler and lefty former mayor Bigelow–it shows she is capturing both the left and right with Garth Turner. She is resonating with the whole “give me a chance–there’ll be another election next year” theme. It has been a lousy NDP campaign from the beginning and what was once a wonderful opportunity for them, has now been lost. It might not mean much, but May easily has the most private property signs. Haskett is being lost in the shuffle.

revised prediction:
Lib 35
Green 25
NDP 20
Conservative 19
Other 1

I think one thing that makes this race so difficult to predict is the fact that the momentum of each candidate in this race is roughly inverse of the (percieved) current position of each candidate. If the liberal internal polling is true, predicting a tight 4-way race, then I think May actually could grab this seat in the end. The first internal poll I heard of placed the Greens at 10%, the 2nd one “well into the teens”… around 15%.

This could be a really dramatic neck to neck to neck to neck finish… or wind up somewhat anti-climatic with the Liberal taking it by about 5 points.

Just wanted to update my prediction. Using the same formula as last time but with significantly more predictions (19 in total) and with updated polling numbers, I’m seeing:

Lib: 32.4
Con: 25.0
NDP: 23.0
Grn: 18.4

Of course my formula is weighted in a more or less arbitrary fashion and precisely 1/3 of the weight of my formula is merely the predictions of everybody who bothered to put numbers down on this and one other blog, so we’ll see how acurate that is. What does strike me though is that I don’t think there’s been any shifts one way or another in terms of momentum. Maybe my formula is just so aggregated that it tames down possible changes, but if I had to guess, I’d say that it seems most people have made up their minds and however people intend to vote today is how they’ll vote on election day.

If this is so, it may spell bad news for May’s campaign.

On my polling page, with over 80 votes, the Liberal support seems to have eroded dramatically since last election (33% -> 6%). Now, I’m the first to point out my poll (with probably most of the voters coming from this website) is in no way scientific, but it seems to indicate a few shifts that can’t be entirely chance alone. What it does seem to say is this..
(http://www.misterpoll.com/results.mpl?id=4237934704)
– Green support has increased dramatically with most of the current Green voters having migrated from other parties, (possibly from Liberals)
Conservative support seems to have increased to some degree… Haskett may draw some new voters who remember her (favourably) as a civic politician.
Liberal votes may be lost to all three other parties, although it is hard to say how much. From what I’ve seen in discussions, Pearson seems to be regarded as a decent guy, but he may not have the high profile of the other three candidates.
> Other things to consider: Green and NDP supporters may be younger or internet savvy than the general population, thus influencing any online polls. They may also be more interested in websites such as this one (Democratic Space). Liberal (and some Conservative) support may be exist in more established circles, where people don’t spend time searching the internet.

Pollser, according to your numbers it seems as though you’re predicting a tight two-way race between the Conservatives and the NDP in this by-election. Is this your prection? The way I came up with this is (and I know these numbers are going to seem way skewed due to your sample, but I think the strenth of your online poll was that it shows voter migration).

If
e= respondents’ answers to your question on how they voted in 2006

b= respondents’ answers to your question on how they intend to vote in the by-election

v= the actual vote received by parties in 2006 in London North Centre

P= the predicted votes for this by-election

then:

P = v(b/e)

In this case, your poll generates the following numbers:

Lib = 9.4%
Con = 50.6%
NDP = 49.9%
Grn = 12.5%

I’m going to assume that you reject these exact numbers as flawed, but is this roughly the order in which you’re predicting they’ll finish?

I don’t know - I was just putting things out there to see what others thought. I considered using the formula you used, but I wouldn’t weigh the results it gives very heavily. (For example with the Greens, a doubling of support in a poll like this would probably mean more than a doubling of support at the voting station. For a more accurate estimate I would go somewhere between proportional and actual percentage increase). All I would conclude is that there are general trends, i.e. many Liberal voters from the past are not voting Liberal now, many Green party voters of today did not vote that way previously. The Green supporters - and there are more of them now - are also very active on this website.
My prediction is actually very close to yours. The results of the poll would probably boost my estimate for the Greens by a few percent and decrease my estimate for the Liberals somewhat.
I would base my own estimate on a number of things, from news events, to other people’s opinions, with my own gut feeling mixed in as well. In the end my estimates wind up being very close to yours.

There are several misconceptions among some commentators on this website.

1. Those predicting that the Greens will only get 8%-10% of the vote here in London North-Centre either do not live in the riding, as I do, or are letting their political bias direct their thinking. Walking down the streets of the neighbourhoods I frequent, I am seeing Green Party lawn signs everywhere, far, far more than I’ve ever seen before. Not only on the lawns of students, but in front of those middle-class and upper-middle-class single-familiy brick Victorian residences that are so characteristic of much of the riding. And it is those kinds of homeowners who are most likely to vote in a below-the-radar federal by-election that follows so closely on the heels of a municipal election. The second-highest contingent of such homeowners seem to like Megan Walker.

2. If an unknown Green candidate with a $2,000 budget can get over 5% of the vote here in a national election, then it is in no way unreasonable to expect a fully funded party leader with the national profile of Elizabeth May to get between three to four times that many votes in a by-election to which only the most politically motivated are paying much attention. Especially now that the environment has crept up to the top shelf of voters’ issues. Voters see by-elections as an opportunity to express their dissatisfaction with the government and to vote with their consciences, since the chance to really alter the political balance of power is out of the equation. This explains why the NDP tends to do rather well in by-elections. The strategic voting that drives support to the Liberals is not as high a factor. Thus, the Greens are not likely to see slip their historically high polling come election day. Add to all of this the government’s recently failed Clean Air Act, embarrassing performance at an international climate-change conference in Nairobi, and base-voter alienating income trust flip-flop, and suddenly the perfect-storm conditions are there for many voters across the political spectrum to vent their frustration by voting Green. Plus, May has impressed the crowds here in all-candidates debates. Does this mean she’ll win? Alas, probably not. But she’ll surprise a lot of people.

2. Megan Walker has just about as high a profile as Dianne Haskett among those who are likely to vote on the 27th. She was Haskett’s most vocal and effective opponent on city council for years. She and her husband have long had a local media presence. And she’s very well known and respected in activist circles. She’ll do well in this election. The more urban-oriented of the London ridings have been gradually drifting leftward of late, and Steven Maynard, the unknown 23-year-old university student who contested the election for the NDP last time out, did respectably well. Walker certainly won’t get any fewer votes than he did. In fact, I’d say she has a shot at winning.

3. And, something that a few of the would-be pundits on this website have failed to account for: When Dianne Haskett won her fabled “landslide” re-election victory, (after the public prayer vigil in which she bowed her head to God against the ‘darkness of Islam’ and was then fined by the Ontario Human Rights Commission for discriminating against her gay constituents), her only opposition in said mayoral race was a humiliated deputy mayor who had recently admitted to having accepted bribery in exchange for his council vote. Not exactly an ideal candidate for mayor, but certainly an ideal political opponent. The fact that the poor guy got even half as many votes as the incumbent mayor proves that there were even then some serious cracks in Haskett’s local reputation. Much has changed in London since Haskett went to Washington, and not in her favour. Granted, she has her core supporters and die-hards, but she will be hard-pressed to find much support beyond the Christian morality voters. Those who remember her fondly as mayor do not tend to think very highly of gay people nor muslims. And in this university-campus, ethnically diverse, mostly urban riding, those are a dwindling breed. I have a sense she’ll be returning to Washington some time soon after election day.

4. Who will win? Either Glen Pearson by default, or Megan Walker. I’ll be voting Green.

According to a post on Babble, a conservative memo suggests that all 4 parties are “within 3% of each other.” It refers to some poll, presumably some internal poll of theirs. So who knows? I don’t really know any more who’s going to win.
William - thank your for your insightful analysis.

Looks like a lot of New Democrats, including myself,will be heading to London this weekend. Poltical wisdom suggests pulling out the vote is key to victory. See you there?

I too will be voting Green on election day, so will my son. I do believe Greens do have a chance here. Maybe not as much as Liberals. I don’t believe that Magan Walker is going to win. Personally i prefer Steve hunter over her. Glens a good guy, just in the wrong party. Personally in my fully biased opinion I believe Elizabeth is the best candidate and will be watching for her victory. :)

Cindanne, in my fully biased opinion, I totally agree with you. Maybe I’ve suffered too many electoral disappointments over the years and am a hopeless cynic, but I just don’t imagine quite enough voters in London waking up in time to grasp the historic opportunity given them to vote for the leader of a fast-growing national party, not to mention that this leader is such a forceful, capable, honest and intelligent woman. I’d love nothing better than to be proven wrong on this. However, whatever the outcome, this will be a big breakthrough for the Greens, as Elizabeth will certainly get a large chunk of the vote and at least indicate that a Green MP is a possibility in the near future. Green Party lawn signs are everywhere. Likely it’ll all come down to the Get Out The Vote machines. The Greens have people here from across the country and seem to be running a very professional, well-funded and impassioned campaign, and they have momentum on their side, so you never know. And the Conservatives have really been operating under the wire, sneaking around while mostly hiding from the local and national media, so it’s hard to predict exactly what they have up their sleeves. Yesterday’s Quebec nationhood proclaimation by Steven Harper, although I agree with it personally, will not appeal to base Conservative voters here, and a lot of wealthy seniors (of which there are many in this riding) still haven’t recovered the money they lost in the income trust flip flop. The Haskett campaign seems to have married itself to a law-and-order message, and I have doubts that this will resonate with very many Londoners at the present moment (as things crime-wise have been pretty quiet here lately. Haskett’s probably praying for a gay pedophile or pregnant-woman murderer or something to come along so she has something to preach about.) So who knows? But it’s all fascinating to watch.

I think a number of you underestimate Haskett. Half of the riding can’t stand her but whoever wins this riding will likely only need about 35% of the vote.

Vote splitting is going to help the Tories huge in this race.

Maybe, maybe not. The Conservatives will be losing voters to the Greens, too, especially those moderate former PCers who Haskett alienates.

If anyone hasn’t realized yet that the Green party is a centerist party. So I certainly expect the Greens pulling from every party. The most likely way to win for the Greens is if all main parties recieve 24%-ish However the Greens pull out ahead? You never know. This is just a by-election. Where there isn’t such a thing as ‘Throwing your vote away’… Unless of course your very passionate about a certain party, I suppose that voting differently would be Trowing a vote away

London Observer has it bang on. This race is all about a vote split. I would say the winner will have in the 32-33% range, actually - and it will be either Haskett or Pearson. Walker would have been in a 3-way fight if the Greens kept out, but they’re going to nix her chances here.

Also, this theory about the Greens drawing from all parties equally is complete nonsense. The types of ‘conservatives’ who would vote Green already abandoned the Conservatives in 2004 and 2006.

Who says? I’m sure you haven’t taled to every Green-conservative in London North-Centre and believe the number of Conservatives switching over will continue to grow. Why? Well because Elizabeth May is the Candidate, The Conservatives have a quiet candidate and even when she does open her mouth you can count on negative comments. Do we really need another negative, my way or the hi-way type of candidate? Of course not!

Ndp wouldn’t have a chance in this riding with or with-out the Greens, Megan walker isn’t doing a great job either. All main party candidates are being caught up in the whole He said She said childish campaigning that I’d hate to add to the huge mess in Ottawa.

With every vote your sending someone to represent London North-Centre. Has Magan, Dianne, Glen, Steve, Will, or Ind. candidate shown the right behavior that you want to see in Ottawa? Didn’t think so. My votes for Elizabeth and asking you all to support her as well…

The polling data that I’ve seen does seem to suggest that ALW is correct in his statement that the Greens draw support UNevenly from the remaining parties. Yes, it is true they draw support from former red tories and yes it’s true that they draw support from liberals. However virtually every study I’ve seen suggests that the greens draw a disproportionate amount of support from the NDP. I believe either Ekos or Environics (I know it was one of the “E” polling firms) recently released a poll to this effect.

http://www.elizabethmay.ca/node/267

Check out this blog. Apparently, a leaked NDP poll shows Elizabeth May and the Liberals running neck to neck… with Haskett and Walker trailing badly, not even in the running.

That was just some radio poll, it really doesn’t mean anything

no. you’re thinking of a different poll. in the radio poll the greens polled 75%ish…

http://www.elizabethmay.ca/node/267

Hey look at that! Wouldn’t that be something if The election turned out that way.

John Mazilli received 29.9% in January and I believe Haskett doesn’t need a whole lot more to win. So it’s not out of the question that she receives 33%+

Haskett: 33.1%
Liberal: 32.8%
NDP: 23.9% (If Maynard would have ran he might have won (29%+), Walker a disappointment).
Green: 9.9% (Statiscally pretty much impossible to ask any more)
Other .3%

http://lfpress.ca/newsstand/Opinion/Letters/

lasten to those comments, almost all having to do with the election are Pro-Green, some are rather interesting.

Wow Ben you REALLY must live far away from the riding. Honestly, Greens get atleast 15% Conservatives won’t win 100% positive.

1/3 of london north is western university students…

Ya and its proven that younger people are more likely to vote Green.

Yes the riding is made up of a vast number of students. And yes younger people are more likely to vote Green. However , the majority don’t go out and vote. This was evidenced in the recent Municipal Election. Students who were interviewed on A Channel said that they were leaving in April so it didn’t matter to them who won the (municipal) election. It is their democratic right to vote in an election and they should exercise that right.
On a side note: Haskett’s biggest problem is , she doesn’t know how to seperate religion from politics. Religious beliefs are great ; just not in government. Politicians need to listen to the people and not the pastors.

Municipal elections only affect local politics, but at least some students are aware that MPs will affect them no matter where in Canada they are.

Oh come on! You Greens are really reaching here, aren’t you? I’d list off the reasons as to why I think you’re wrong on all of your assessments, but quite honestly, the message isn’t going to get through, so I won’t waste my time. The only thing I can say is that how about we concentrate on winning the election tomorrow eh?

It looks like there are two different Bens posting on this blog. This Ben is sitting in May’s HQ and is feeling quite optimistic. We just finished another youth press conference. Look at the list of supporters that was placed in the local paper: ex-PC president, local councillors, etc. I’ve been going door to door and judging by signs, and voter sentiment I think we stand a GREAT chance.

The press has been great. Watch the CBC national story on the election. You’d think we were paying them off!

Western University students do hold the balance of power. 1/3 of the constituents are western students, but Western is a notoriously apolitical school. If we can get them to vote (and we’ve been on campus every day since the election was called) we stand a good chance.

No party has released internal polls (except the leaks which show the greens doing exceptionally well). I’m not sure what to make of this, but it makes me think the conservatives/ndp have something to hide. This race may in fact be a green liberal showdown.

Conservatives have yet to be seen in London. NDP is less than impressive. Liberals are strong.

I’ll keep ya posted.

Ben

There is no way we can compare student vote from municipal to federal election showings! Obviously more people are going to get out and vote! Including students. Personally I think its going to be an extremly tight 4 way race. One of which the winner will only need 25% to win. Its a shame that the Greens couldn’t have one a seat last election. Elizabeth would have had this one in the Bag. OH AND BEN! Tell Elizabeth That Cindanne and Son support her! Oh how I admire her political ability. I see her going far.

NDP goes negative:

Has anyone else got one of these flyers in their door? I just got one this morning:

[Thinking of voting for the Green Party?

Think carefully.

The Greens ran a good campaign but the reality is they can’t win in London.

In this election, you can make a difference.

You can affect the outcome and send Stephen Harper a message her can’t ignore.

By voting for MEGAN WALKER and the NDP, you can defeat the do-nothing, ineffective Liberals and send a real message to Stephen Harper.

The NDP is the only party that can win and get things done - on the environment, on health care, on a balanced role in Afghanistan and on democratic reform.

SEND STEPHEN HARPER A MESSAGE ONLY MEGAN WALKER CAN DELIVER.

GREEN CANDIDATE ELIZABETH MAY - IN HER OWN WORDS

MAY ON THE NDP: “Of all party leaders, Layton has the best grasp of the science of climate change and the most in-depth experience in implementing carbon reduction strategies.” (In Policy Options Magazine)

MAY ON THE GREEN PARTY: I’m voting Green but “…only because I am in a very safe Liberal seat. I wouldn’t take the risk of voting Green if I thought I might elect someone who would help destroy Kyoto.” (CBC Sunday Edition, during 2006 federal election).]

Also, earlier this week I got a phone calling asking me what I liked and disliked about Elizabeth May and the Green Party. How much do you want to bet it wasn’t the Greens calling?

London Observer - was the call that you received a push poll or did you get the impression it was somebody doing (fairly) genuine research into May?

“London Observer - was the call that you received a push poll or did you get the impression it was somebody doing (fairly) genuine research into May?”

The latter. It felt like a focus group, with the emphasis on negative qualities. Tellingly, they never said who/what organization they were from. Just that they were “researchers” studying the London North Centre race.

It’s fantastic news for the Greens that they are the target of NDP attack literature. The NDP are scared of Elizabeth May and they have every reason to be.

Not a very good piece of literature, either… almost American-style.

It’s crackers to think the Greens have a shot here. 15% ‘at least’? More like 15% maximum. Don’t take my word for it. Just wait until tomorrow.

I don’t need to take your word for it. I live here. The NDP really made that last grasp to take some votes. However, my street recieved that flyer and 2 of the 5 NDP signs came down. Wow, Megan Walker just lost 100% respect from London. The only message she’ll send to parliament, is the “I made the same mistake as the liberals in the Parkdale-Highpark provincial by-election.” HaHa, and look the target of the attackers won.

So Elizabeth May could have joined the NDP, and had a good shot of being an MP, or even a leader down the road. So why did she join the Greens? She probably thought they had more promise to change the country.

I live in London too, thank you very much. I can’t wait to hear what you’ll have to say tomorrow after the results are in.

Whoever you are planning to vote for in this byelection, these strike as perfectly legitimate messages from the NDP on why people should NOT vote Green. In Parkdale-High (as some of you may recall), the Liberals spread vicious personal attacks that among other things claimed that the NDP candidate supported Karla Homolka. There is a world of difference between those kinds of scurrilous personal attacks and putting out legitimate arguments on why people shoudl not vote for your opponent.

I’m sure that Elizabeth May has criticized the Conservative record on the environment and has given people reasons why they should not vote Conservative. Is that not also “negative campaigning”???

Regardless of what we think is ‘negative’ campaigning, the sheer amount of it in this election has the potential to turn a lot of people off. About half the Conservative press release on Haskett’s website are about what the Liberals are not doing. The NDP has turned off some people as well. I don’t think it’s a good tactic when a good portion of your message is negative.

Hey alw

my guess based on canvassing is May 20 per cent at least. It may not be a win, but it certainly seems stronger than your 15 per cent.

we should share stories some time post campaign.

The NDP has run a terrible campaign here. They’ve attacked everyone viciously without actually providing any substance of their own. The Liberals have been laying low and hoping to hold on to enough of their vote to win. The Conservatives have been hesitant to campaign mostly because the more people know about Haskett, the less likely they are to vote for her. The Greens have been on the offensive, but not in the same negative style as the NDP. Whether that makes them competitive or not is yet to be seen.

Certainly, the perception that the NDP is being unnecessarily negative will hurt them; they’ll decline to around 20%. The Liberals were definitely going to decline, but it’s unclear by how much; right now, I would estimate to about 30%. Pearson is not the most compelling candidate, but he also hasn’t come across as trashy as Walker has. The Conservatives will probably hold on to their vote and neither lose nor gain more than 1%; 30% is the ceiling in LNC for an extreme Conservative like Haskett. The potential Green vote is a complete unknown, but I would say their potential vote is at least 25%. Not that they’ll necessarily win that much.

Liberal: 28%
Conservative: 27%
Green: 25%
NDP: 19%
Other: 1%

OK, on the eve of the elections, here are the predictions. (We’ll pretend it’s some kind of hockey pool or something). Then anyone who wants to can check in and see who ‘won’. The predictions are rounded for simplicity.

Wheeloffate: C 33 / L 31 / N 22 / G 13

Todd: L 25 / C 27 / N 27 / G 22

Predictor: C 35 / L 30 / N 26 / G 8

Tom: L 28 / C 27 / G 25 / N 19

Pete: C 35 / L 25 / G 20 / N 18

Matt: L 28 / C 25 / G 22 / N 20

Paul: L 32 / C 25 / N 23 / G 18

John: L 35 / G 25 / N 20 / C 19

Ben: C 33 / L 33 / N 24 / G 10

Cindanne: L 32 / C 25 / G 20 / N 19

Average: L 30 / C 28 / N 22 / G 18

I personally think it will be closer than those average numbers (some of the predictions are a little old), but I really don’t know anymore. I may post one more prediction tonight.

OK here’s what I think, if I had to bet money on it …

Lib 28, Green 25, Cons 23, NDP 22

I may be way off, but who cares, we’ll see soon enough.

My prediction (based purely on my intuition) is as follows:

Liberals - 32%
Conservatives - 26%
NDP 23%
Greens 17%
Others 2%

Here’s my guess:
28% Green
25% Liberal
24% Conservative
21% NDP

I just think that, given all the people who vote for the Green Party across the country, they should have at least one seat for their party leader.

Conservatives 33%
Liberals 32%
NDP 22%
Green 13%

..and I will eat my hat if the Greens get 20%! And even I, a Tory, wouldn’t mind seeing it happen…but wishing won’t make it so.

This just in… Elizabeth May responds to NDP pamphlet:

http://www.elizabethmay.ca/node/306

Oh my God, I guess this means Elizabeth May is “going negative” against the NDP now! Is nothing sacred?

NDP - 32%
LIB - 29%
CON - 23%
GRN - 15%
OTH - 1%

“So Elizabeth May could have joined the NDP, and had a good shot of being an MP, or even a leader down the road. So why did she join the Greens?”

hmmm…a) delusions of grandeur? b) mad power trip? c) need to be a big fish in a small pond?…or some combination of those three things

We will never know unless someday her shrink (if she has one) spills the beans and breaks the code of doctor-patient confidentiality.

ALW make sure you post the video of your hat-eating on Youtube. I can’t wait to see it!

I said a while ago that the NDP stood a chance, but that was before I’d taken in the full scope of Megan Walker’s political meltdown. And Haskett just sent out a select mailing to her bitter little constituency telling them that she’ll try to bring down gay marriage — that smacks of desperation to me. She’s become the anti-gay candidate and not much more. I think the Cons and Greens are going to battle it out for a second place finish to the Liberals, trailed by a lacklustre NDP. But I won’t play the numbers game other than to sort-of throw my hat in with Pollster’s predictions. Who wins in this scenario? The Liberals and the Greens. The Cons need to win not to look idiotic, since they pulled all of their available levers (ethical and unethical) to do it, and the NDP hasn’t done itself any favours at all with their testy, overly-emotional candidate. Actually, the Greens are going to look good no matter what happens. They’ve run an excellent campaign and they’ve showcased their strong leader very well. Just the fact that people in London, of all places, (it’s not the most environmentally-conscious or progressive riding in the country) have plastered many of their neighbourhoods over with Green Party signs says a lot. There’s a shift afoot, whether it happens tomorrow or some day soon.

If Dianne Haskett squeeks in she’ll be gone again by next spring’s election.

I think the Greens will surprise many people tomorrow. I wish I still lived in this riding to be able to vote tomorrow, being a Green Party supporter. It’d be great to help make history.

The generally apathetic UWO population should come out and vote tomorrow, pushing May to the top. It sounds like the Greens did their homework and campained heavily on campus to be able to get their message across.

So my predictions:
Greens - 33%
Liberals - 32%
Conservatives - 18%
NDP - 12 %
Other - 5%

Though I admit, this is perhaps too biased and optimistic on my part! One thing is sure - it’ll be close, and a late night tomorrow!

I have volunteered on Megan Walker’s campaign, and I am an NDP supporter, but I am disgusted by Walker’s negative campaign and I agree that it is going to hurt her badly today. She is no Irene Mathyssen! Look for NDP votes to move to Liberals (I think Glen Pearson is a fairly well-respected candidate) and Greens (Elizabeth May has run a fanastic campaign). My prediction:

Liberals - 35%
Greens - 30%
NDP - 20%
Conservatives - 15%

There is a tremendous amount of Green support, and I would love to see Elizabeth May make history today, but somehow I just can’t see it happening!

I cannot see how the Greens, the NDP or the Liberals can win - there will be too much vote splitting among these 3 parties… The Conservatives it seems will have the most faithful base especially with the traditionel marriage question…

predections:

Conservative: 39%
Lib. 21%
Green 20%
NDP 19%
other 1%

Bill - you won’t find 39% of the population of LNC that opposes same-sex marriage. I’m not convinced that Haskett can even hold on to all of the people who voted Conservative last time, many of whom were just voting against the Liberals.

The facts are simple we all know its a 4 way race. Garth’s endorsement of Eliz, Toronto Stars constant articles on her we can see a + 20% lead.
However the NDP seem to be un-noticed and there is a lack of momentum she may fall into the Greens. The Libs can’t pick up votes lost to the NDP and people want change, I can see a stronger progressive vote being sent to the Green Party. However everyone who is right, right-of-centre and some small c minor conservatives will stay with Haskette. The progressive vote is split into 3 ways. The Libs are in low numbers because of their leaderless ineffective opposition, Quebec controvery based party, the NDP have been fighting well but not strong enough and the Greens are draining the left vote.

The Harper team is defending law and order and is using their amazing budgets of tax cuts to woo middle class voters. I can see 5-10% red tories going on with the Haskette.

I predict: Conservative: 30
Liberal: 28
Green: 27
NDP: 10
Undecided: 10

I have to agree with yo all on the whole ‘I can’t see Elizabeth winning’ If everyone knew who everyone else WANTED to vote for Elizabeth would win no problem. However thats not the case. I’d eat ALW’s digested hat if Dianne wins, and twice over if Megan does well. Its a great race if your a small party, if the greens don’t pick some up, every protest vote will be one of the three smaller parties. Anyway, I’ll give my FINAL predictions untill the race starts tonight.

Liberal- 29%
Green- 26%
Conservative- 25%
Ndp- 17%
Other- 3%

Could that last piece of literature have been the final nail in the NDP campaign?

My final prediction:
Green 29, Liberal 28, NDP 22, Conservative 20

It’s difficult for me to be unbiased, being a Green supporter, but I think that just might have swung around enough voters for May to pull off the upset.

The fact that hardcore Green Party supporters don’t like it when other parties dare to criticize them, is no surprise. But in any close election there are a few percent of voters who are swayable or undecided about how to vote and they are the only people whose views matter.

If the Green Party and Elizabeth May want to be taken seriously as a political force they better get used to the fact that other parties will attack their policies and that their damaging past statements will be publicized. If you think you can go through life without ever being criticized then politics is the WRONG profession to choose.

The Greens used to complain about not egtting any attention. Now they have discivered that when you do get attention, not all of it is favourable - too bad. The world’s smallest violin is playing.

I don’t know if Derek is responding to anyone in particular. I think I must have missed the thread, where the Green Party supporter complained about being criticized. If there was such a commentor, I’m still afraid that Derek tarred and feathered a little to liberally (excuse the pun). I think May demonstrated an amazing ability to take criticism and demonstrate that she has the stature of a natural leader of a national party. Having seen most of the debates in London North in which May got attacked–primarily by a clearly scared Megan Walker–it looks like the leader of this party is very comfortable with criticism. Her responses to such comments at the debate at Huron College were impeccably well crafted and insightful answers free of complaints about not enough attention or too much criticism. Whether the Greens win or not…they ran one hell of a campaign…and even the other candidates have admitted that.

Tune in to the national for election coverage at 9. or i think its the national… Maybe not.
Oh and just to back up NGP here, would you like to read Elizabeth’s blog? Honestly, if you don’t see that as taking rather Harsh lierature well, then maybe you should run next time.

5 POLLS REPORTING, ELIZABETH LEADING

Pearson is breaking away and taking the lead from Elizabeth… But I’d like to point out that once the UWO polls start reporting (assuming they haven’t yet), May’s numbers will probably jump.

It’s over. Glen Pearson has it. Not so bad…he’s a good man and he’ll represent the city well.

ALW, digested the hat yet? Greens 26-27%! What was that? you were wrong?

The NDP had an interesting approach to controlling democracy in the last municipal election, by sending out many e-mails. Few of their candidates actually got in and now the riding of London North Centre has spoken. Not only did the NDP lose voter share, but they lost badly. The people have spoken, get the message.

The significance of this by-election was in how the Green Party would perform. The Greens made gains from all three major parties out there, but not equally as Elizabeth May and her predecessor, Jim Harris, professed. Even though the Greens are more ideologically in tune with traditional Progressive Conservatives (like Harris and Garth Turner) and environmentally-conscious Liberals, they take a disproportional bite out of the NDP. Of every 4 votes gained by the Greens in this by-election, they took 1 from the Conservatives, 1 from the Liberals and 2 from the NDP. Without proportional representation (PR), this is a lose-lose situation for the environment. Four-way races in other parts of the country will split progressive votes and give more seats to Liberals and Conservatives who both have terrible records on the environment. A non-partisan voice can argue quite strongly that an NDP-Green coalition in parliament could offer viable environmental policies, maybe with the Liberals, too, if they stopped denying the fact that neo-liberal economics treats the environment as an externality and can’t solve the problem. PR could deliver such productive coalitions. But if PR isn’t coming soon, then the NDP and Greens, who seem to draw from the same constituency, should consider merging into one party. Green Democratic Pary (GDP), anyone? Probably not anytime soon, if ever. Same goes for PR. Hence the big losses progressives will see in the vote-splitting to come. In reality, we may now have four-party politics outside of Quebec, but the numbers churned out by our current system will likely translate into gains for only two parties, the Liberals and Conservatives. Intention and effect seem to be drifting further apart in Canada. The system and/or all parties need to change in order to remedy this democratic deficit.

Simon, I agree.

Another option that nobody seems to be talking about that would help (though not as much as PR) is “preferential voting” where the candidates are ranked in order of preference. If the first preference of voters does not win, their vote would be transfered to their second choice, and so on… This would probably result more NDP and/or Green MPs.

This system would prevent vote splitting and strategic voting, and in my opinion should be a lot more easy to implement than PR. All it would take is voter education on the new system and probably electronic vote counting machines (though actual voting should be on paper). Riding boundaries would not need to be changed as would be the case in PR. Personally, I think that in a country where there is a great population density discrepancy like Canada, preferential voting makes more sense than PR. However, some mixture of the two would probably be the best scenario (like BC-STV).

Unfortunately there is no talk of this thus is unlikely to become a reality. Yay to democracy…

On another note, with May’s loss, I think Garth Turner will have even more pressure to become the first Green MP.

I think we have to hand it to Cindanne on her prediction… Without doing all the number crunching, it appears she was the closest.

There are different ways of looking at the Green’s ‘relative’ victory. It may mean that all the parties may have to bump up their environmental agenda to fend off the Greens. And then you could make the argument that it’s not just the Green’s ‘environmental’ agenda that attracts voters.

I am eating my hat. I did not expect the Greens to crack 20%.

ALW, not only did you not expect the Greens to crack 20%, you pegged them at 13%. What part of London did you say you lived in? Surely not my wealthy-homeowner neighbourhood, whose polling booth gave Elizabeth 75 out of the 127 votes cast. Some fringe party. Anyway, hats go better with ketchup. I know because I’ve eaten many.

How do you get poll by poll results?

Cindanne = check elections.ca — but you may have to wait a few months.

If anything good can come from this by-election, other than Haskett getting defeated of course, I hope that the NDP and the Greens can begin having a dialogue if not on outright electoral cooperation (or merger) but at least on policy fronts. There are far more policy commonalities (or at least there would be if Elizabeth May can continue to shift them away from their right-leaning legacy under Harris) than either are willing to admit. If this by-election can convince the NDP and the Greens to, for instance, agree to only run 300 candidates each in the next election (giving each party 8 ridings that would be uncontested by the other) the real victory of this by-election would be for Canadia.

Unfortunately, I think both parties (and yes, both leaders too) are too pig-headed to consider such an option. We are so bogged down in the notion that the left does not mesh easily with the Green movement when all throughout Europe, they have made alliances which have worked beautifully. I fear that the lessons of Europe are lost on us.

One of the key factors of the London North Centre By-Election was the low voter turnout: more people didn’t vote than voted.

The key message is: it isn’t our fault.

Consider the number of voters who stayed home this election who voted in the last election less than a year ago:

Liberals

Voted in 2006 Election …… 24,109
Voted in 2006 By Election ..13,287
Stayed home………………….10,822

New Democrats

Voted in 2006 Election ….. 14,271
Voted in 2006 By Election …5,388
Stayed home…………………..8,883

Conservative

Voted in 2006 Election ….. 17,968
Voted in 2006 By Election …9,309
Stayed home…………………..8,659

Green Party
Voted in 2006 Election …….. 9,864
Voted in 2006 By Election ….3,300
Got off the Couch…………….6,564

No way of a Ndp-Green alliance EVER. Ndp is a socialist party and Greens are not. I for one am not socialist by an means, no offense to people who are. I have a very good reasons. No way would the Greens or Ndp contest in only 300 ridings. Why? They wouldn’t be eligable to continue as a national party (I believe.) correct me if i’m wrong.

While the NDP and Greens share a lot of concerns, I don’t believe the Greens want to be confined by the left label. They want to move forward and find some common ground with voters on all parts of the spectrum. So I have to agree with Cindanne here. Besides NDPers seem to have a lot of contempt for Greens. It doesn’t seem to bring out the best in them - at least some of their core supporters.

PoliTick, there’s no way Garth Turner could switch at this point. I mean, it would be good for the Green Party and ultimately for Canada, but he’s already made his decision. He’s doing a great job as an Independent, too. (He voted against the idiotic Quebec resolution!)

Pollster, I agree to some extent, but I don’t think electoral cooperation with the NDP necessarily confines the Greens to the left. At least, they could rationalize it to the voters as putting concern for the environment over left-right politics. (Would people believe that?)

^ I don’t know, Tom. It would be seen as a coalition with the left, and may turn off a lot of right of centre voters, thus confusing the issue, and making it harder for the Greens to distinguish themselves from the NDP. I think non-alignment with traditional parties is an important part of Green philosophy at the moment.