Mulclair will win around 30% of the vote no matter what. That means if the Liberals and Bloc are about tied, the NDP could win, but if one pulls away from the other, it’s in the bag for them.

Greg. Please, take note that voting day is Monday, September 17th, NOT 16th! Aussi, qu’en est-il des partielles à Saint-Hyacinthe et à Roberval? Le Bloc étant dans le trouble presque autant que le PLC, une course intéressante devrait se produire dans ces deux circonscriptions. Ma prédiction pour les trois partielles: un comté au Bloc, un comté aux Conservateurs et un autre au NPD. Les quels? À suivre…

J’aimerais que vous me donniez votre avis là-dessus:

Supposons que la candidature vedette de Thomas Mulcair prennent une partie (quelques %) du vote fédéraliste libéral (électeurs ayant une tendance vers la gauche) et que le candidat conservateur divise encore le vote et prenne quelques % du vote libéral également (électeurs plus à droite). Cela voudrait-il dire que la marge entre Bloc et PLC pour s’effacer et les mettre nez à nez? Ou le PCC volera également des votes au BQ ce qui fera en sorte que le PLC soit toujours apte à gagner mais avec quelques plumes en moins? Par contre, n’oublions pas que le PCC est arrivé 4e ici la dernière fois, donc est-il vraiment apte à gruger les votes du Bloc?

Même si Outremont est à tendance libérale, pourrions-nous parler d’un changement cette fois-ci tenant des facteurs ci-dessus?

merci, Raoul.

Dion has alot riding on Outremont. It is the only one the Libs have any reasonable expectation to win.
They have an organization on the ground the NDP lacks, not only in Outremont, but some powerful ones in neighbouring ridings like Mount Royal, St. Laurent cartierville, Westmount-St Louis, NDG Lachine, that can and will be pressed into service to identify and get out ever Liberal voter with a pulse. That said, it’ll be tight. Mulcair is a formidable opponent, lack of NDP organization notwithstanding.

I think the Tories will take Roberval, with relative ease, but St Hyacinthe-Bagot wil be a race: between the Bloc and the Tories. Part of the Bloc’s success there in the past was Yvan Loubier, but he’s now nursing his wouds from his failed PQ campaign, and not running. The Tories may profit from the ADQ trend in that region (ADQ took the riding provincially) so it may be close.
Looking at the recent SES poll wich pegged the parties at 41% Bloc 23% Lib, 22% Tory, 7% NDP, it tells me the Bloc has a problem. Their numbers are spread throughout the province, while ALL the Liberals’ support is in Greater Montreal (tories dead in the water), while the Tories are concentrated heavily in Quebec City and central Quebec (libs barely register). That said, in their respective regions of strength, the Libs and tories are both much stronger than they appear when the province is taken as a whole.
That said, I predict Lib in Outremont, Tory in Roberval, and Too close to call in St Hyacinthe, though I give a thin edge to the Tories there too.

Objectivement, François Gourd devrait l’emporter haut la main. La raison est bien simple: Le Parti Néo-Rhino parle au nom des Rhinos qui n’ont pas pu se présenter étant donné la loi électorale et qui par conséquent, restent sans voix. Les Rhinos s’abstenant, leurs votent reviendront de droit à François Gourd et cela, cela grâce à un droit de procuration inscrit dans la charte qui est disponible au bureau du parti. Comme aucun autre parti ne revendique les abstentions, ce sera donc probablement une large majorité absolue. Malheureusement, des rumeurs circule à l’effet que certains candidats louches qui prévoient arriver 2e au scrutin grâce à l’appui de moins de 15% des électeurs, planifient un coup d’État, avec la collaboration des forces policières. Une histoire à suivre…

Pour faire une précision aux webmasteurs de ce site, le candidat du Bloc Québécois est Jean-PAUL Gilson et non Jean-Pierre Gilson. Merci à l’avance de faire la correction!

François Pilon Will be the Green candidate.

Je miserais un petit 2$ sur THOMAS MULCAIR. Ça serait bien un député NPD au Québec.

Question – if the Liberals finish 3rd, how will that impact Dion’s leadership?

Nick… the Liberals WON’T finish Third.

I think it will be Libs winning on organization, NDP second Bloc (spit!) third, Tories 4th.

I dunno guys, It’ll be close. With the Liberals and the NDP splitting the left wing vote the Bloc (if enough votes are pulled from the conservatives could win. However for now I’ll say Ndp has it.

Ndp 30- +13
Lib 28- -7
BQ 21- -8
Con 12- -1
Grn 6 – +1
Oth 2 – +2
GUESS POLLING SO PLEASE DON’T HATE!

Hi Matt,

I’ve met you on Facebook in the past. Good to see you here.

I don’t think your guess polling is too far off the mark, only I think the Libs will take it on organization. They can haul crack teams in from several montreal area ridings, and bring anyone with a pulse to the polls. The NDP is dependent, for the most part on the Quebec Solidaire Network pulling together and turning in a solid effort in the GOTV.
I think the Bloc isn’t even in the game in this vote, and 21 % won’t even bring them up the middle, so no worries there.
Quebec Solidaire turned in some impressive results in the Quebec ridings of Mercier, Gouin, and some other est end ridings, but that’s not Outremont.
Advantage Liberal because of the Jewish, Filipino and South Asian population in the Cote des Neiges portion of the riding. The Arabic/islamic population will go NDP, I think, while the Bloc gets the diehard separatists. Many who voted Bloc last time will go Mulcair this time, so it looks like a Photo finish.
Long term, should teh NDP win, it’ll set them up better than ever before as a potential player in the nxt general election. They should place their strongest candidates in ridings where Quebec Solidaire does well. Federally, that translates into Rosemont-Petite patrie, Hochelaga, Pointe de l’ile, and laurier-Ste marie.
Perhaps they could even recruit some of te Quebec Solidaire candidates, that is unless they’re already getting ready for the fall of the Quebec Liberals, which could happen before Harper’s minority does. Stay tuned.

Hi,

Mulcair should be able to improve on the score of Lauzon, but the Liberals do have a definite organizational advantage.

I would like to see Mulcair elected, but I expect a victory for Coulon.

N’en déplaise à Neil (le cracheur), Matt et bien d’autres, Thomas Mulcair ne sera pas élu dans Outremont.

La division du vote fédéraliste entre le PLC
(affaibli par l’antileadership de Dion) et le NPD, créera une surprise. Le BQ se faufillera entre les deux.

Étant donné l’élection PARTIELLE, le PCC, les verts et les Néorhinos pourraient cependant fausser la donne.

En passant, Neil, j’aimerais bien savoir d’où tu halucines que le parti le plus anglophone et le plus centralisateur d’Ottawa (NPD) utilise les réseaux de Québec solidaire (un parti de “diehard separatists”)!?

Cette soi-disante coopération est contre-nature!

Shocking, isn’it?

Prédictions:

BQ: 29
PLC: 27
NPD: 27
PCC: 12
Verts: 5

Very excited to see how the neorhino parties do in Outremont and Saint-Hyacinthe! Just another subject of interest to add to the conversation!

Prédictions: Outremeont … 1. Libéral 29% de peine & misère 2. NPD 28% 3. Bloc 22% 4. Conservateur 14% 4. les autres

St-Hyacintthe-Bagot 1. Conservateur 2. Bloc 3. les autres ( Le Bloc va avoir le misère à conserver le comté … les Conservateurs vont avoir une chance réel ici… les candidats locaux seront très importants)

Roberval 1. Conservateur 2. Bloc 3. les autres… le candidat conservateur est de loin le meilleur…

M. Desouffleuse, le gang de Quebec Solidaire est de premier socialiste, et en deuxieme souverainiste. De plus, QS comprend des socialistes qui sont federalistes aussi. Je les connaissent, et ils son’t des anciens militants Neo-Democrate, et ils confirment que plusiers QS s’impliquent au campagne de M. Mulcair.
Le NPD est le seul Parti federaliste qui affirme le droit des Quebecois de decider leur avenir a propos du question nationale, donc, c’est un parti qui devrait reussir au Quebec.

William, I wish I could be as optimistic as you in terms of predicting a conservative in in St Hyacinthe-Bagot. There is nothing I’d like better than to see the separatist horde lose 3/3 by-elections.
While I am confident that the Tories will take Roberval, and that either the Libs or the Dips will take Outremont, I am not about to go outon a limb for St. Hyacinthe.
Can you please share with us what feeds your optimism?

I think that in St-Hyacinthe-Bagot the local Conservative candidate is fairly well known… a city consellor, known in the sports world (a bosing commentator on TV as well as involved in boxing clubs, fitness etc,)

the Bloc candidate is a “political career” person, never having done anything else in her life than work for politicians… & not too involved in her community other than for political purposes…

I am not sure if the people in this largely rural riding will always vote for the party…. the Bloc candidate is surfing on Loubier’s reputation & not her own… I am not sure if the people in this riding voted for the BLoc in the past but I am sure they voted for Loubier,,, therefore I think that the local candidate is probably a bit more important than the party here… that is where the Conservatives have the advantage….

I predict that the Liberals will take Outremont, the Bloc St Hyacinthe and the Tories will win in Roberval.

MES PRÉDICTIONS; OUTREMONT RESTERA LIBÉRAL ET LES DEUX AUTRES RESTERONT AUX BLOC. CETTE ÉLECTION NE CHANGERA RIEN. LE PC FERA PIETRE FIGURE…..POURQUOI ? JE PENSE QUE LA GUERRE EN APHGANISTAN, VA LES HANTER, SURTOUT S’IL YA DES MORTS AUX ALENTOURS DU 17 SEPTEMBRE……..

St-Hyacinthe-Bagot … encore .. another comment

Looking over the list of candidats & their activities in the region, it seems as thought the NDP will pick up votes as well as the Green party. The NDP candidate seems like a very sympathetic individual. I am not sure about the Liberals – I think it is a lost cause for them – their candidate is not even from St-Hyacinthe. The NDP will take votes away from the Bloc & so will the Green…. it is not a shoo-in for the Bloc in my opinion….. The conservatives will do well – I am not sure that Afganistan will be a factor…

I now think that the Bloc will take both St Hyacinthe and Roberval, while the Libs will take Outremont…

have there been any polls published on Outremont and the potential outcome??? If so, can you direct me to the link or even post it here?

In answer to the question about polls, to my surprise there have not been any published. There were rumours that La Presse had commissioned a poll at least in Outremont and maybe in all three, but that was a while ago and nothing has appeared. Some conspiracy theorists may think that since La Presse is a very pro-Liberal newspaper, maybe they are suppressing the results of a poll that show very bad news for the Liberals in Outremont. Let’s face it, if a poll came out showing a tight race between the Liberals and NDP with the BQ a distant third in Outremont, it could unleash a stampede of BQ “strategic votes” going to Mulcair, just to inflict a coup de grace on Dion and the Liberals.

This weekend, the NDP pulled out the big guns with the party leaders (Jack Layton, Alexa McDounough, Ed Broadbent) mainstreeting in the riding, in support of the local candidate Thomas Mulcair. I don’t think the other parties have been able to do the same for their candidates. The tide is turning… people are fed up with the old sovereignist-federalist debate and are turning more towards the right-left debate… given how Montrealers are generally quite left-leaning (environmentalist, pacifist, social solidarity, etc…) this could be the beginning of an orange revolution in Montreal

The Gazette/TVA/Journal de Montréal issued a provincewide popularity poll of 65 political personalities

http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news/story.html?id=1be79ebd-296d-4e40-938e-8f79dfdf2edb

Interestingly, it showed that Layton and Mulcair were, respectively, 9th and 11th most well-liked politicians. In comparison, Gilles Duceppe placed 3rd, Harper 13th, and Dion 22nd. No mention in the newpaper acticle about the candidates from other parties… I wonder what impact this may have on the byelection.

Mark, your points are well taken. IF the NDP makes a breakthrough in Outremont, it would be earth-shattering.
It would have to be followed up with the recruitment of some strong candidates by the Dips for the general election , and then placing them in key ridings. The Bloc is clearly in decline, and the NDP answers alot of the concerns from Quebecers, particularly in the Montreal area.
It’s even conceivable that some Bloc MPs might defect to a party that could give them an effective platform for social activism. Given that the Question Nationale seems to be off the table for the moment, I have to wonder whether some people like Serge Menard, Real Menard, Makko Kotto and a few others might be looking at their options. If they could recruit some of them, the DP becomes a player in Quebec, and certainly a much stronger force in Parliament.

la lutte est serrée entre les Conservateurs & le Bloc en St-Hyacinthe-Bagot, selon les observateurs…. les enjeux locaux sont très importants, donc bon signe pour les Conservateurs…

As an interested observer from Toronto, I’d be quite thrilled to see Mr Mulcair win, if for no other reason than to give the NDP a more national voice. Whether or not the NDP ever wins government federally, they consistantly play a valuable role in presenting a progressive option, and a voice that usually has somthing different to say than the Libservatives

I wouldn’t mind seeing the NDP win, since it could give them a beachead in Quebec, and their message should resonate with many Quebecois. LAyton speaks more than passable French too.
If the NDP emerges as an option in Quebec, they might attract disaffected Bloc voters who are beginning to see it as a worn-out one trick pony up there in Ottawa accomplishing next to nothing.
A Mulcair win, combined with Bloc losses in Roberval and St Hyacinthe might just get a few Bloc MPs to start weighing their options, and you mighty even see some of the more social ativist MPs defect to the NDP, I’m thinking particularly of people like Serge Menard, Real Menard, Makko Kotto and a handful of others.
It could be interesting if the NDP went into the next election with 2-4 pretty strong, well known MPs in QC.

Its a nice thought Neal, but keep in mind that NDP party policy is that if anyone wants to switch parties they must resign and run in a byelection. IF the NDP won Outremont and IF BQ MPs started to flee like rats off of a sinking ship, here is what would have to happen: either the MPs in question would all resign at once and announce their intention to run as NDPers in the subsequent byelections (unlikely) or, the MPs in question announce that they are leaving the BQ to sit as Independents and that they will seek NDP nominations in their ridings for the next election (more likely).

But, let’s not count our chickens until they have hatched.

The Bloq is made up of an amalgam of different social and political viewpoints, held together only by the gravity of the lodestar “sovereignty” Although nationalism is and probably always will be strong in Quebec, many Quebecois apparantly feel satisfied that theirpoint has been made for now and are ready to focus on other issues. If that is the case, look for the BQ to start to splinter along political fault lines. Some, especially in rural areas, will go to the Conservatives. Others, those more attracted to the Social Democrat wing of the PQ, could gravitate to a newly energised and credible NDP, especially if Mulcair does well.

Mes prédictions pour les 3 comtés en élections sont :

Outremont :
1- PLC serré, par moins de 1000 voix
2- NPD très près du PLC
3- BQ très près du NPD
4- PC pas mal plus loin derrière
…

Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot:

1- BQ assez serré, par moins de 2000 voix
2- PC
3- PLC relativement loin derrière
4- NPD très loin
…

Dans Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean :

1- BQ avec une confortable majorité (rappelons les victoires péquistes remarquables lors des élections générales au Québec);
2- PC (grâce à la proximité du ministre Blackburn)
3- PLC assez loin derrière
4- NPD très loin
…

Bonne fin de campagne!

We will know soon enough anmd there will probably be polls published over the weekend, but i predict the following:

Outremont: NDP to win by a modest margin over the Liberals with the BQ and the Tories left in the dust.

Ste. Hyacinthe – BQ will hold on by a solid margin. The Liberal may come in 4th behind the NDP

Roberval – BQ will win narrowly over the Tories, Liberals will be a distant third and the NDP fourth.

The Green Party will be a distant 5th in all three

A poll released today shows the NDP’s Mulcair in the lead in Outremont

http://www.cjad.com/news/565/586250

Unfortunately, I can’t find the original source of this poll anywhere…

The NDP’s Mulcair is in the lead, according to a poll released today

http://www.cjad.com/news/565/586250

sondage ce matin donne Outremont par le peau des dents au NPD; 38% NPD, 32% Lib 14% Bloc 7% Conservateur… aussi 40% qui pourrait changer d’avis

St-Hyacinthe-Bagot: Bloc 49%, 32% COnservateur 5% Lib. & 37% indécis selon ce sondage…. aussi très peu d’intérêt selon le sondeur qui favorise le Bloc car les Bloquistes iront aux urnes

Roberval-Lac-St-Jean; Conservateurs 43%, Bloc 37%, Lib 14% … indécis 33% mais la tendance en direction des Conservateurs selon le sondeur

For those who can’t read french, the polling results for Outremont:

La Presse reports that an extensive poll of the Outremont riding shows the NDP candidate Thomas Mulcair leading the Liberal Jocelyn Coulon, 38% to 32 % in the federal by election set for next Monday. The Bloc Québécois candidate Jean-Paul Gilson follows with a meager 14 % and the Conservative Gilles Duguay comes in fourth. Some 43% of electors say they could change their minds before the election, while 41% say they aren’t interested, so it’s definitely not over.

Wow! With the “could change” and “undecided”, and “Don’t give a damn” numbers almost anything could happen from a Mulcair landslide to a Liberal Hold. I will watch with great interest how this one unfolds. The numbers must be very encouraging for the NDP (not to mention Mssrs Ignatieff and Rae) and very scary indeed for Mr. Dion.

After looking more closely at the poll results, it also appears that a lot more voters for the Liberals, Conservatives and Bloc are more likely to change their minds than those supporting the NDP and Mr. Mulcair.
3.3. Fermeté du vote
Possibilité de changer d’idée d’ici le 17 septembre
Possiblité de changer d’idée Total Bloc PC PLC NPD
Oui 37% 33% 27% 58% 44%
Non 50% 61% 69% 38% 56%
NSP / NRP 13% 6% 4% 4% 0%
1
Q 7. : Est-il possible vous changiez d’idée concernant le choix du candidat d’ici la tenue de

DL — The Greens are supposed to come in fourth in St-Hyacinthe-Bagot with the liberals polling in fifth with just 5.00%

I think it’s time to call this for Mulclair.

Can’t believe I’m saying this, but it looks like the NDP may win this Quebec riding on Monday

the one thing about these sondages, these polls is that I wonder about some of the responses from certain minorities that are “leary” about sharing their points of view … I would think that these minorities would be liberal voters… the “undecided/do not want to say” could be more Liberal tan what the pollster thinks…

Outremont might just be liberal once again….I would not be surprised

Losers always try to spin that their supporters don’t talk to pollsters etc…I remember the City of Toronto mayoralty election in 2003 when David Miller first won. When polls showed Barbara Hall tumbling to 13%, her backers started this ridiculous claim about how she had all this massive support in ethnic communities and these people don’t talk to pollsters. When the votes were counted she did even worse than the final polls and got 10% not 13%.

YOu can be sure that the polling company has weighted their results to reflect the demographics of the riding…the details of their poll actually have the Liberals ahead among allophones – but only 44% to 34% (and the NDP more than compensates by its massive lead among francophones)…also this being a byelection, I don’t think you can count on much of a turnout by allophones who don’t ay a lot of attention to politics whose default is to always vote Liberal.

except for one fact … the NDP had a radical occidental islamist at a meeting in Outrement recently; this will work against them – (she is a convert to islam with very radical views – Yvonne Ridley) … I am not convinced the NDP will win …. & I am not a Liberal … there are going to be second thoughts about the NDP….

Who cares if one “radical occidental islamist” was in the crowd at an NDP meeting? I have seen zero discussion of that in the media – it’s like a tree falling in the forest.

In any case there are as many Muslims in Outremont as there are Jews and it seems that to the extent that Jewish voters care about Middle East policy – they mainly want to defeat Coulon because of his pro-Hamas writings.

Sorry correction; The NDP, Alexa McDonough & Thomas Muclair were at a fund raising event for Yvonne Ridley ,,, Yvonne Ridley during her presentation praised Hezboallah & the Talibans… a Bosnia Imam declared that Canada was the most Islamique freindly country in the world for the benifit of & etc….
What a joke … I hope people think twice before voting NPD….

Watched the Ctv newscast to-night. Dion, Dryden and Trudeau, the bright lights of the Liberal party, playing to an almost empty room. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a clearer sign of a losing campaign. Thunder Sticks aside, I’ve seen more noise at a funeral.

The BQ seems to want God out of our history but homosexuality in. It is too bad this is what they are teaching 15 year old philipino and asian boys.

also reports about the Dion Liberal campaign being sabotaged by other Liberals such as the Michael Ig. group….

Lutte féroce entre Libéraux et Néo-Démocrate. Ma prédiction: Les Néo-Démocrates l’emporteront avec une mince majorité. Libéraux en deuxième, Bloc en troisième et Conservateur dernier.

Les prédictions ci-haut étaient pour la circonscription d’Outremont bien sur. Pour ce qui est de Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean, je crois que les Conservateur l’emporteront mais n’aura pas une grosse avance sur le Bloc (qui sera en deuxième). Dans Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot, je crois que le Bloc peut facilement garder cette circonscription dans son giron mais je crois toutefois que la majorité diminuera un peu et ce au profit des Conservateurs. Que pensez-vous de mes prédictions?

“The BQ seems to want God out of our history but homosexuality in.”

That’s because homosexuality exists, but God does not exist.

Darwin O.Conner – you are wierd … you must be with the NDP… your man won in Outremont…

He’s not weird, he’s right.

Huge win for the Dippers. I expected a fairly close result because of a supposedly strong “big red machine” bolstered by hundreds of out of riding Liberals. Instead, Mulcair won going away. In the other by-elections, the Bloc was the big loser even though they held on to one seat (by the skins of their teeth). It will be very interesting to see the Quebec numbers in the next few polls to see if these results have a carryover effect.

Les individus suivants devraient maintenant faire un commentaire auto-critique, question de dédommager les autres lecteurs de ce forum en les faisant rire un peu:

Yvan Dessouffleuse
P. Leclerc
eric
Daniel

This shows you something about the NDP. They had to recruit a former Liberal to run and win this seat for them. They have no stars of their own!

Hmmm…. Dosanj, Bob Rae, ….. It seems the Liberals do their fair share of poaching former New Democrats. I believe the odd Liberal has moved over to the Conservatives and Vice versa, and let me see, I believe the BQ was formed by four disaffected Tory MPs. The lines between polical parties are always fluid, so…. What is your point, Pinball?